Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 20, chapter 90
This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality and anything related to it. This thread is intended for discussing chapter 90. The previous thread has passed 750 comments.
There is now a site dedicated to the story at hpmor.com, which is now the place to go to find the authors notes and all sorts of other goodies. AdeleneDawner has kept an archive of Author’s Notes. (This goes up to the notes for chapter 76, and is now not updating. The authors notes from chapter 77 onwards are on hpmor.com.)
The first 5 discussion threads are on the main page under the harry_potter tag. Threads 6 and on (including this one) are in the discussion section using its separate tag system. Also: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17,18,19.
Spoiler Warning: this thread is full of spoilers. With few exceptions, spoilers for MOR and canon are fair game to post, without warning or rot13. More specifically:
You do not need to rot13 anything about HP:MoR or the original Harry Potter series unless you are posting insider information from Eliezer Yudkowsky which is not supposed to be publicly available (which includes public statements by Eliezer that have been retracted).
If there is evidence for X in MOR and/or canon then it’s fine to post about X without rot13, even if you also have heard privately from Eliezer that X is true. But you should not post that “Eliezer said X is true” unless you use rot13.
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Comments (609)
Harry has already upgraded two existing spells: partial transfiguration and Patronus 2.0
In both cases, he achieved the impossible by ignoring what wizards believe and instead concentrating on his own beliefs.
What does Harry believe about Hermione that other wizards do not? He believes she is a purely biological machine, that there are no souls, and that a reductionist viewpoint is correct.
Therefore, in the right frame of mind, perhaps Harry can reparo a dead human (although canon!reparo cannot repair magical items properly, I wonder if it might restore Hermione without her magic, and if she might just be just as awesome without it.)
... It strikes me that Harry's wand could not be affected by a normal reparo, up until someone threw the Elder Wand itself at it...
According to Quirrel (this might not actually be accurate) troll regeneration works by constantly transmuting itself into its own body. I wonder if that can be applied to a human...
But memories, like wounds, would be constantly overwritten. This troll, while quite competent in many ways, never displayed learning ability.
Somehow I don't think a human unable to learn would be what Harry would consider a valuable result.
First, I'm not sure how much learning precisely you were expecting from the troll in this limited period of time, most of which was taken up by it feeling fly-bites and smacking around the flies, nor even how you would expect for such to be seen.
Secondly, it did seem to learn. George hit it with three Ventus spells, each one moving it further towards the edge of the terrace. Between the second and the third, the troll dug its hand into the stone, anchoring it in place so that it would not be blown over the edge. If that's not adapting to match a new threat, I'm not sure what would be--certainly not in the brief time of the fight where most of the attacks were on the level of fly-bites.
If that is not displaying a learning ability, I would like to hear an example of a learning ability that it could have displayed.
I... think that the effects there would actually be much worse: The troll would be basically stateless. It's not even clear how that sort of thing would avoid disrupting the transfig. process.
Perhaps it's somewhat more advanced, like the charms that McGonagall was mentioning.
Harry would have to maintain the transfiguration for the rest of Hermione's life, or until they find a replacement solution. Given the extent of the injuries that may not be within his strength.
It does sound like exactly the kind of clever hack Harry would use to get an indefinite healthy lifespan, though.
Ideas about what Hermione without magic would do? Presumably some sort of research with occasional overwhelming research-based action, but science? magic? some combination?
Possibly she would get outfitted with a truly ridiculous array of magic items?
Why the magical dualism? Since the magic ability has been confirmed genetic and not external in the earlier testing with Draco, a "repaired" wizard will remain a wizard.
There's a genetic marker that the Source of Magic recognizes. The gene is still there, but the magic may not be. What wizards believe to be the soul leaving might be the Source of Magic withdrawing its power.
This has only just occurred to me, but if the sole threat to the students was (as far as everyone knew) an ordinary troll, and it was daylight outside, and they were already in the Great Hall, then why didn't the professors just lead the students out of Hogwarts and into the sunny open before assuming defensive formation? It would also have the advantage of giving a group of casters long range on a melee attacker.
For that matter, I wonder if the sky illusion on the Great Hall ceiling counts? It reflects real weather.
Interestingly, the Potterverse is high on mind-affecting spells, but very low on illusions. Assuming illusions are not more difficult to cast than other spells, if artificial daylight holds all the magical properties of normal daylight, vampires and trolls should be virtually (or actually) extinct, since every wizard irrespective of combat training would need only create the illusion of a miniature sun (and presumably close their eyes or look away) to instantly obliterate/incapacitate any such creatures in a fairly large area.
There's probably something magical about direct sunlight.
Considering McGonagall's first impulse was sending them back to their dormitories, I believe they just didn't think it through.
Just came across this in re-reading chapter 3:
Why a burnt hulk when the Killing Curse does no physical damage whatsoever?
It strikes me that the body doesn't match Voldemort's presumed cause of death, there are no witnesses of said death (since Harry's memory cuts out early), and burning a corpse is a classic way to render it unidentifiable.
Moving from considering evidence to speculation, it strikes me that the prophecy would make it incredibly easy for Voldemort to fake his own death - if he went to the Potters' house, killed the parents, placed a mysterious mark on Harry, and then disappeared, leaving a body behind, there is no way his enemies wouldn't take that as his death and the prophecy's fulfillment.
Why would he fake his own death, though? He was winning.
To make Harry Potter a worshiped celebrity.
Probably not. While Voldemort's terrorist group was doing increasingly well, Dumbledore's presence alone would be sufficient to prevent a complete victory, and the entire civil war was a distraction from Voldemort's likely main concern, the muggles.
Chapter 20. It would seem Harry dodged a truly enormous bullet there.
This could be interesting depending how she reacts later. I'm mostly expecting despair, but with a small chance of a heroic Minerva.
I'd be pretty shocked if we don't see a heroic Minerva, given how she reacted to Harry's rant and the fact that this incident provided the name for the chapter.
I suspect Quirrell's closing statements to McGonagall at the end of this chapter are not quite what they seem. I'm thinking of two in particular: the first, that he wants Harry kept away from the Restricted Section, and the second, that he wants McGonagall and Dumbledore to try to restore Harry's mood by any means necessary.
The trick to the first one is that he hasn't mentioned sealing off a certain other means of discovering arcane secrets at Hogwarts. Admittedly, Quirrell's suggested that it's probably blocked off anyways. But it might not be; even if the basilisk itself is gone, there might still be useful books. So it looks as though Quirrell is trying to push Harry into finding the Chamber of Secrets. There could be any number of reasons why - though the fact that it's a secret, hidden place at least partially exempt from the Hogwarts wards seems like a good place to start.
The trick to the second one is that McGonagall's way of cheering Harry up is actually going to be quite predictable: she and Dumbledore are likely going to try bringing Harry's parents to Hogwarts. Naturally, this opens up a whole world of possibilities for Quirrell; he could use them as hostages, kill them, Imperius them, or do any number of other nasty things if necessary. Or, if he's interested in understanding Harry better, he could use Legilimency to learn all about his background.
Also, limiting Harry's access to knowledge (warning off the other profs, warding the books, etc) makes Quirrell the sole conduit for advanced knowledge for Harry. (Or at least limits the competition). And Quirrell implied to Harry that he was at his nearly-unrestricted service. That gives Quirrell more access to Harry's thought processes (by the questions he asks) and more capacity to steer his choices.
As to what he's steering them toward, he pushed Harry off of new spells, which makes me wonder if he has an old one in mind. There was talk about rituals of sacrifice here (the blood-to-fire) and generally recently (Tracy Davis's invocation). It's possible that there's some ritual that Quirrell would like Harry to perform, not for what it manifests, but for the changes it makes to the caster.
He probably also wants to push Harry away from new spells for safety reasons (presumably he thinks Harry might try to science up a dangerous new spell and that's how he ends the world; he has some experience with Harry attempting to combine magic and science from Azkaban). If he personally steers Harry towards old spells then at least he knows what those spells do.
It's also possible that the Restricted Section contains enough information for someone like Harry to figure out how to create spells from reading it.
It's possible that Quirrell himself intends to be Harry's source of information, but so far he's only been manifestly unhelpful. Basically every response he gave was a brush-off; he didn't even name his spell of cursed fire. When directly given an opportunity to suggest spells or rituals of his own choosing ("There's some magics I mean to learn"), he wasted it. It's possible that he did so out of concern that he was being listened in on, which would also explain his choice not to switch to Parseltongue; still, it certainly doesn't seem like he's trying to point Harry in any particular direction.
In my analysis, I've considered this strong evidence that Quirrell is genuinely worried about what Harry will do. This isn't (just) a plot to get Harry dependent on him so he can feed what he wants into his ear; this is also an actual limitation on Harry's power, denying him information that he doesn't intend to tell him personally, either.
... given the Prophecy, I can't blame him, though we don't know much about the effects of fighting Prophecies.
hmm. I initially read Quirrell as being legitimately worried by the prophecy and taking what actions he can. , Although now that I say that I'm skeptical. If Quirrell was actually afraid of Harry ending the world, then Harry would be dead. Even if Dumbledore can put up serious resistance to killing Harry in Hogwarts, Quirrell would still likely think he has better odds than he does against the end of the world.
Harry is not dead, so its likely Quirrell does not think Harry will destroy the world (at least in the commonly understood sense).
Quirrell might, in some manner at least, survive the ending of the world (although I note that the resources available to him after the world is gone do not support a convenient resurrection.) But Harry may have usefulness to Quirrell which is worth whatever risks he poses. Even with Quirrell's great edge in raw power and experience, Harry has already developed magics which Quirrell is not capable of.
One of my pet theories is that the reason Quirrel ever became voldemort is to take over the wizarding world in order to take over the muggle world to prevent them destroying the earth with nuclear war, which is the only thing he views as a serious threat to his long-term continued existence. He might risk harry ending the world if he's trying to stop another end of the world risk.
Really? That doesn't sound like something I'd expect Dumbledore to do. It sounds transparently tactically dangerous given that someone close to Harry has already just died at Hogwarts, and his parents have no idea how to relate to what he's going through now anyway.
It might be dangerous; Dumbledore, however, will blame his own absence for the danger and rationalize that nothing will happen with him there. He kept on overrating Hogwarts' security after the last incident; this one seems no different. Anyways, as McGonagall put it, "What now, Albus? If he will not listen to me, then who?"
Like I said in another post, I suspect Quirrel simply wants Dumbledore and Minerva to get in Harry's way in order to get him to distrust them. Or perhaps I should say, to maintain the distrust that currently exists. Asking them to cheer Harry up will only have them keep treating Harry's feelings as a problem to be solved, like what he yelled at Fawkes for, and Quirrel knows this.
He's cut him off from Draco, Hermione, and now he's working on Minerva.
I don't think this will drive Minerva from Harry. Despite the unpleasantness, I think this has decreased her loyalty to Dumbledore and increased it to Harry. Dumbledore was complacent about the lapse and didn't think she was worth blaming. Harry gave her a sense that more is possible (even if he doesn't think she can pull it off) and I think she'll surprise him.
He set up a situation where Harry wants in the restricted section but McGonagall is trying to stop Harry. The result will be that Harry will get annoyed at McGonagall and Dumbledore for forbidden him access to the restricted section.
Harry asked Quirrell to tell McGonagall that he shouldn't be disturbt. From Quirrell's perspective McGonagall is likely to do something that annoys Harry when she tries to restore his mood.
Huh. I assumed that Quirrell was trying to manipulate someone from the Order into to obliviating Harry to further alienate Harry from Dumbledore's side. Harry hasn't detected himself being obliviated yet, and that needs to happen in the next few chapters. But memory charming Harry to happiness a high entropy guess so I don't have much confidence in it.
I think it's more likely that Quirrell is being sincere, and that he is trying to avert the prophecy that he heard at the end of Ch 89. As evidence, I submit:
I'm actually impressed with Quirrell's control, here. We can judge how great his fear of death is from his response to Dementor exposure, and here we have a prophecy which (to him, at least) is signalling the end of the entire universe. He's spent decades desperately trying to find a way to avoid death, and now he thinks he's looking it straight in the face. And nobody in the story has even noticed that he's concerned, although I'm pretty sure he was showing his fear a little at the end of 90 there. He must be gibbering on the inside, and holding it together out of sheer determination.
Of that much I'm fairly confident. This next bit is speculation on my part. I'm not going to give a percentage, it's just a hunch, but it is my pet hunch which I've had for a long time.
Quirrell has it all wrong. HPMORverse is actually a simulation being run at some higher level of reality, and Harry is going to figure this out and either rewrite the universe to his will, or airlift everybody in the world the hell out of there by their bootstraps, thereby mass-producing immortality. Merlin was the last wizard to know that the universe was a sim and he patched it to stop people breaking it. Unfortunately this resulted in the loss of a whole lot of useful stuff which may very well have been grandfathered in.
I doubt it, on the basis that this is something that's unlikely to appeal to many audiences as a realistic application of rationality, and would probably cheapen the plot for a lot of readers.
The funny part is, we know this to be literally true. The less-funny part is that it is incredibly difficult for an author to write himself into his own story as a character without coming off incredibly hokey. Heinlein mentioned himself in passing a couple of times and it wasn't any worse than any other in-joke, but I know of no better examples than that.
Edit: I have, of course, forgotten Godel, Escher, Bach. Not sure how. That's a bit of a special case, though.
http://www.undefined.net/1/0/
In book 2 of Don Quixote, book 1 is mentioned quite a bit and a lot of characters seem to have read it. I was actually surprised at how interesting and original Don Quixote was.
Several people have latched onto the idea that "in fact, harry is in a simulation [because it's fiction]". This is a deeply confused statement. [edit: I misread Argency; he's just speculating - no [because it's fiction] implied - I replied to the wrong comment]
A story can be about anything, and is exactly as meta as its author wants it to be. We've seen Harry use the idea that he's like a hero in a story as an intuition pump, but that's part of the very non-simulated [fictional] world he inhabits :)
I mean, the story events so far could turn out to have been simulated, or we could end up with a story where self-aware fictional characters negotiating with their creator, but I've seen no indication of that so far.
Oddly enough, if you look at the Prophecy in terms of science fiction, it's not too bad. Star-lifting is a thing, and a Singularity of any type would look awfully apocalyptic to a civilization in medieval stasis.
Star lifting is not only a thing, it's a thing that has been mentioned in HPMOR... by Harry... in response to Trelawney's prophecy.
Chapter 21, after Trelawney says "HE IS COMING. THE ONE WHO WILL TEAR APART THE VERY -" and is whisked away:
Pointing out the obvious, but
Is long for "Harry James Potter Evans Verres". Of course, he gave plausible explanation for why it couldn't refer to him at the time, and all he had to go on was the letter s, so of course that hypothesis wouldn't have elevated itself to his attention at the time.
Question: what does it mean to say "X is a thing"?
Does it mean:
A) The concept exists? (e.g. Unicorns are a thing)
B) The concept may not exist yet, but it could exist? (E.g. lunar colonization is a thing; but unicorns are not a thing.)
C) the concept actually exists (Space stations are a thing.)
I believe in general Internet parlance its usage is closest to A, and more rarely C. Obviously, since A could be made about pretty much anything, it is typically restricted to "the concept exists, and is acknowledged by a sufficient number of people" (e.g. "Rule 34 is a thing").
And since the phrase "is a thing" is acknowledged by many people, we could say that "is a thing" is a thing. Unfortunately, ""is a thing" is a thing" is not yet a thing.
Saying "x is a thing" is a way of reminding people of a relevant concept that may have been overlooked. Whether it's an actual physically existing thing or not depends on context.
One thing I am reading out of this is that Quirrell is (understandably) genuinely worried about what Harry might do, after the Prophecy.
Part of this is making him dependent on Quirrell for information, obviously, but part of this also seems to be a genuine desire to keep certain knowledge out of his hands - I'm 90% sure that the stock answer Vector and Flitwick will tell Harry about spell creation is the same one that Quirrell just gave, for example.
The first time this sentence appears in HPMoR is in the italic text that begins Chapter 2:
I'll assume the difference between "it's" and "it was" isn't significant. I'm inclined to refocus my attention now on the italic text that begins Chapter 1:
I didn't know what to make of this when I first read it, and I still don't. Does this describe an event that has already happened? It's not Hermione's death, since that didn't happen in the moonlight.
It's been debated constantly since the start because it's highlighted as important. The best guess was that it might have been when Voldemort attacked the Potters, but there's obvious problems with that (what's the silver? and as far as we know, no blood was shed by Voldemort since he favored AKs). Given that ch90 brings up blood as a powerful sacrificial element, it's looking more like it's about a future event and maybe a ritual by Harry - pursuant to bringing back Hermione being the obvious goal.
When you said AKs, I immediately thought you meant AK-47s. That put a very amusing picture in my head.
I might play too many videogames.
The only plot-significant things that have been described as silver are Fawkes, the Time-Turner, Dumbledore's beard, Lucius Malfoy's cane, and Patronus charms. I think we can safely eliminate Dumbledore's beard and Malfoy's cane. If it is in the future, I would have dismissed the time-turner before the past 2 chapters, but not anymore.
(I still believe it likely describes the attack on the Potters. Edit: I no longer believe this.)
"Beneath the moonlight glints a tiny fragment of silver, a fraction of a line..."
This sounds like an alchemy circle, which has to be drawn "to the fineness of a child's hair." I guess it involves the creation of a philosopher's stone.
In the first Canon, unicorn's blood is silver, and that has a life-extension effect.
IIRC, Canon!Dumbledore says it is used as a last, terrible resort of a wretched life (or something).
If a drop of blood is all that's required to summon fire that can burn through the walls of hogwarts, then what can liters of blood do?
Actually, it's not a drop of blood, it's a drop of blood for the rest of your life. But under a reasonable interpretation, Quirrel is perhaps being a little paranoid in avoiding use of that spell.
If we interpret the requirement as it frustrates one drop of blood from coming into creation, well, blood lasts ~120 days; if one drop is 0.05 ml and Quirrel is middle-aged and can expect another 40 years of life (the question about wizard lifespans is relevant here, though), then that's
0.05 * (365/120) * 40 = 6.1milliliters total loss.Or if we interpret it as reducing the total capacity of one's blood, well, adults have ~5 liters or 5000 milliliters, so you could use that spell hundreds of times before appreciably reducing your blood content (200 * 0.05ml = 10ml, so you'd go from 5000 to 4990...).
The latter explanation was my assumption. I am curious whether this capacity loss transfers across bodies when one is possessing someone else or has been resurrected.
Note that of the italicized parts that appear at the start sporadically throughout the first ~20 chapters, this is now the only one that has not yet appeared later in the story (I went through and checked).
I thought they would be in reverse chronological order or something cool like that, but no dice.
One of the only things I can recall being referred to as a line, is the Line of Merlin Unbroken - the short rod Dumbledore has when presiding over the Wizengamot. Of course, that's not silver...
EDIT: Just expanding; the Line seems to both refer to the physical object Dumbledore holds, but also the succession of people, going back to Merlin - making Dumbledore literally a fraction of a line.
The first 20 chapters mostly have similar italicized bits at the top. Many have come to pass, but Ch. 1, the most mysterious of the lot, I do not believe has.
Does anyone else here use dictionary of numbers (recommended on the xkcd blag)?
You don't want the meat to spoil, after all.
Not only do I use that, it means that your comment renders as:
to me.
An idea I read on the HPMoR subreddit that I don't remember finding here is that "the very stars in heaven" could refer to the Blacks (Every last one of them that we know of has star, constellation or galaxy-related names, including Draco). Hermione also offered "the skeleton is a key" as a hypothetical for what a prophecy that means "Susan Bones has to be there" might sound like, and Hermione did study prophecy on Harry's urging, and we know that Hermione retains book knowledge much better than Harry, though this is still rather weak evidence for a stars -> Blacks style riddle. It did seem pretty unlikely that Belatrix/Sirius would have a reasonable way to reenter the story in the time that remains, but that particular interpretation of the prophecy does point that way--and they are unclosed plot parentheses in the story's final stretch.
Side note: Narcissa was a Black by birth (Belatrix's sister, in fact), and "stars in heaven" is, as other readers have pointed out, an odd phrasing for what would normally be called "the heavens", but not particularly odd if heaven = happy afterlife or wireheading.
The word "very" in this sense means "literal". The prophecy is talking about actual stars.
"very" is the original "literally". I.e. it used to mean "verily" or "in actual fact" and has gone through the same process that "literally" is going through now, where it's just intensive. "really" went through this process shortly after "very" did.
Interesting idea. Unlikely though. PredictionBook link.
I wonder if resurrection via transfiguration is possible? It's probably too simple a solution narrative-wise, but it seems like something a reductionist should at least try.
Harry and Hermione's failed attempt to transfigure a lost book is evidence against this working, since that also involved transfiguring something specific that contains information. But magic has enough strange rules that there are plausible reasons why that could fail but transfiguring a specific person could succeed - maybe you can't transfigure a specific thing while the original still exists, or something like that.
Harry would probably want to start with some less ethically risky experiments, to avoid making a doomed conscious that doesn't want to die. He could check whether transfiguring a copy of a brain works by having someone else train an animal to do something unusual, and then trying to transfigure an object into that animal. He'd know it worked if the trainer observed the animal doing the thing it was trained to do. (The person doing the transfiguration shouldn't know what knowledge the animal has that makes it unusual, so that they have to transfigure that specific animal, not just an animal with the same appearance that knows the same trick.) For good measure, he should try doing this after killing the original.
If that worked, he'd have to find someone extremely good at sustaining transfigurations to transfigure Hermione, since he wouldn't want her to keep re-dying each time the transfiguration wore off. For it to be a permanent solution, Hermione would have to learn how to transfigure herself like a troll, which could take a while.
Now that I think about it, it should at least be possible to transfigure an inanimate object into a non-specific muggle, if it's possible to transfigure an object into a non-specific animal. If anyone ever did that, it's a really, really good thing they kept it a secret. (No one sees a problem with killing a pig by turning it back into a desk, or burning a transfigured chicken inside a bubblehead charm, and muggles already have less-than-human legal status. Someone might transfigure very short-lived servants, or worse.)
Is there a page that lists all of the unresolved hints/clues in MoR? For example, Remembrall-like-a-sun, Bacon's diary, etc.
This list has been compiled on reddit some time ago. It goes up to chapter 85. Some things have been resolved since then.
Great list. I definitely haven't seen the map errors worked out to my satisfaction. From Chapter 25:
I think at least one of these errors is Tom Riddle, although I'm not sure whether it's the intermittent one or the other one because I'm not sure whether it's more likely to attach to Quirrell or Harry. I don't have any good second candidates.
I decided to enumerate all the map errors I could think of.
Name errors: any error in which someone's name is persistently not what you'd expect.
Map errors: any error in which the map itself is drawn incorrectly, or in a way you wouldn't expect.
Name persistence errors: any error in which someone changes names.
Multiple dot errors: any error in which one person is in multiple places.
We now also potentially have
As someone suggested earlier, it's possible that Sirius Black is hiding out as the Weasley owl (the "measured and courteous hoot"). That would fit with Peter Pettigrew being the unfortunate in Azkaban chanting, "I'm not serious."
It's also possible that Pettigrew is hiding out somewhere, I suppose, but that doesn't seem smart.
This also raises the possibility that someone or multiple someones who weren't ever Marauders using small animagus forms to get around the castle, which could show up funny on the map.
Please note that Dumbledore has used the map, and has commanded it to "find Tom Riddle". Many of your suggestions would lead Dumbledore to discover something he hasn't.
Estimate of the probability Quirrell is talking about Roger Bacon's diary?
Slightly higher probability given that canon Harry (OOtP) has a known propensity for ignoring gifts that could have averted disaster until too late.
What he means is that he wishes that books on memory charms fit that description - but in fact they're not guarded at all or even in the restricted section of the library.
Interesting idea. However, given that Roger Bacon's diary is of interest as a scientific rather than wizardly historical artefact, and wizards wouldn't know an item of scientific value if it electrocuted them...
Er, I think he means that it looks like Bacon's Diary but is actually something more precious.
Palm, meet face. This is what happens when you get too little sleep as a result of staying up waiting for the next chapter.
Thanks for the clarification.
I loved this:
Does anyone else run into the problem of frequently giving this advice to yourself and finding it useful, but struggling to find a non-awful way to convey it to other people? I don't want to get them to self-flagellate, but to look for what leverage they have and not worry as much about what it totally outside of their control. Stoicism seems like the main way people hit on this idea of responsibility in my social circle.
My issue is that I don't have a good procedure in place for constructive blame: by default, when I blame myself for something mostly what happens is that I rehearse to myself what a terrible person I am without trying to figure out what I could do differently in the future (and then actually making sure that that happens).
Well, being a stoic for such a long time means my reflex is usually, "What is useful here?" And when I run that check on kvetching, it doesn't make the cut. Sometimes I pretend to feel guiltier, since most people read practicality as callousness, but internally, I focus on, "What different action should I take or new data should I look for?"
ETA: Actually, the other check that helps me is asking: "Is there a causal link between my feeling bad and my being helpful?" Usually, no, or if there is, it does the opposite of what I'd like!
Current theory: rehearsing to yourself or to other people what a terrible person you are is a natural, self-protective response to what seems like an impossible demand. Sometimes the demand actually is impossible, sometimes the demand is understood correctly and falsely believed to be impossible, and sometimes the demand is defensively interpreted as impossible because the reasonable part is felt to be not worth doing but it doesn't feel safe to just refuse it.
I think this analysis is helping me to break the cycle of rumination about being a terrible person because it lowers the intensity. It's much better than "you shouldn't think you're a terrible person"-- that just becomes another failure.
I am sometimes successful at this; when I am, the script usually goes something like, "What am I worried/upset about? What should I have done differently? What can I do to prepare for this next time?" And then I actually talk myself through the things I could have done differently and whether they would have been successful, and if I hit upon something that would have worked, I try to identify a heuristic or plan that would help me do better in situations like these in the future. And do something to implement it immediately, if possible, or at least burn in into my head so I won't forget.
And if I don't hit upon anything I could have done that I think would have been a good idea, I just say to myself, well, that was just a bad situation. (Like if I happened to do badly at something because of luck, even though statistically, I'm pretty sure what I did was a good idea, even having updated on the evidence of it not going well once.)
This usually helps because if I keep worrying, I just ask myself, "is this a different concern I need to address, or is it the same just feeling-bad as before?" And then if it's a different concern, I do the same thing, trying to identify if this worry is actually a signal I need to think harder about the problem.
And if I really, truly decide, on reflection, that the worry isn't a useful signal, I find that really helps in getting it to go away. Because that way my worrying side feels vindicated, because the concerns have really been addressed; I'm not just forcing them out of my brain because they are worries and worries are bad, but because they are worries with no basis in reality. Once I actually feel confident of that, then I'm not worried anymore.
The trickier part, sometimes, is remembering to do this. I'm less sure about how to do that.
Does it feel wrong to anyone else that he's basically complaining to a woman old enough to be his grandmother about how immature she is? This despite the fact that she's proven herself repeatedly to be willing to listen to good advice, and has pulled his bacon out of the fire by quick-witted crisis management at least once?
He's an angry 11 year old, and this isn't the first time he's yelled at her.
Of course. This isn't surprising behaviour, but it is behaviour that makes me think less of Harry. (That said, it's one of his few traits that makes me actually think he's eleven, so perhaps I should be grateful)
He seems bad at using people. And that is a weakness, compared with his opponent.
I think Harry phrased it poorly, and if he meant it, he was absolutely wrong.
Allocating blame on yourself is a category error. We morally judge to separate the sheep from the goats, the wheat from the chaff - in short, to sort into piles of approach and avoid. You're stuck with you - where ever you go, there you are - so the point of the categorical judgment is simply inapplicable.
The sensible and very valuable part of what he is saying is to look to what you can do, and don't seek to console yourself with "that was his responsibility". Such interpersonal judgments are all about roles
But you can change your actions more directly and more effectively by changing them. Putting blame on yourself is one of the better paths to depression, which is not an effective state. Blame others where appropriate and useful, but don't blame yourself, only search for actions to improve the situation, and choose them. You blame others because their actions are not yours to choose. Don't blame yourself, choose better.
Any thoughts about how to apply this sort of thinking when you're extremely stressed?
I call it "being solution-oriented". Stop any discussion or thoughts as to whose "fault" it was, and look at everything which could have been done to prevent the negative outcome. Consider hindsight bias carefully before saying that a particular action which could have prevented a given crisis had an expected positive return.
This is a problem with the concept of heroic responsibility. It's not defined with sufficient resolution to nail down the interpretation of paying attention to specific parts of the causal graph and exclude the interpretation of feeling like a horrible person. I can't decide if Eliezer doesn't worry about people coming away with the second impression or if he actually endorses it.
BTW, the psychological technique you seem to be referring to from Stoicism is usually called the "dichotomy of control." And yes, it appears to be quite Googleable.
I think this is related to Harry's problem, highlighted in the three armies arc, with considering other people as potential sources of ideas.
Someone please tell Shinji Ikari about this radical notion.
Someone did, but not until the last episode of the TV series.
And Shinji's personal and emotional life was screwed up, but NERV did indeed manage to stop every invading alien Angel; the threat that did them in was of a far different nature.
I think it's helps to remove blame and responsbility from the equation when you try to get people to do fault analysis.
When trying someone to lead through a learning experience it's good to produce an enviroment where the person doesn't feel judged.
No comment on the shout out to all the Sith Lords in the audience?
I think the previous chapter was already bringing back a lot of Anakin flashbacks.
I don't think anybody gets as excited by a Prequels reference as they do by an Ender's Game or Naruto reference.
Okay, I did chuckle.
It's still interesting to see Palpatine of all people freak out and do his very best to stop Anakin from trying resurrections.
Would you guys agree that Harry is being unfair to Minerva regarding his Time-Turner? "But you thought it was your role to shut me down and get in my way."
At the time she had it locked, she was right: he'd been irresponsible with it and needed to stop abusing his new toy every time a minor problem arose, and there's not a hint that even Harry disagreed with that. You can't refrain from such corrective actions on the remote possiblity that limiting your student's options will do harm. Not-limiting an irresponsible student's options in the relevant way can also lead to harm.
Yes, and it's part of a pattern of behavior. HJPEV consistently finds (seeks out?) uncharitable explanations for other peoples' behavior, especially when he's under stress. It's probably the most 11-year-old-like thing about him.
I think this is actually Harry's fault: He should've requested his time turner be unlocked as soon as he could plausibly argue that REALLY IMPORTANT things were happening around and to him. When Mcgonnigall first locked it, he was doing more harm than good with it.
It depends on what other corrective options she had. She might, for example, have password-protected it as a form of probation, and told him the password. She could then check every couple of weeks/months to make sure he hadn't used it, while still leaving him the option in case of emergency. Of course, she probably wouldn't have believed him able to not give in to the temptation, and it's hard to say whether she would have been right at that exact moment in time.
Considering that she was reacting to the signs of time-turner addiction, a phenomena that had been observed in others before, I think it was a safe assumption for McGonagall to make.
To throw on the pile of random maybe-foreshadowing:
-McGonagall, Chapter 17.
This did get me thinking, however. Firing Quirrell would presumably include removing his registration as "Defense Professor" from the Hogwarts wards. What did adding him to said wards do in the first place? The implication must be that the wards somehow distinguish students and staff from intruders, yet they have never actually prevented anyone from illegally entering Hogwarts, nor alerted anyone to such an intrusion.
Relating to the foreshadowing part,
Prediction : Harry has stolen a march on Quirrelmort. I predict that between the time Professor Mcgonagall unlocked his time turner and Quirrelmort entered the room, he already used the device to visit the library's restricted section.
At least, I hope so : I really want to learn how "spell creation" is done, per EY's interpretation. That will tell us a lot about what magic actually is and what can be done to achieve Real Ultimate Power.
Furthermore, this would be fully rational. Harry's analysis of what to do next should have already made it abundantly clear that he needs to obtain more information, and the restricted section obviously has stuff that might be helpful. And why start on a task now when you can start on it 6 hours ago?
There is an error in your analysis. There is no reason to start 6 hours ago, since the alternative is being able to go back 6 hours in the future. Either way, he has the same amount of time. If he finds out he needs to do something in the past, then he could go back. The only difference between researching first and going back first, is that if he researches first, he keeps the option of using the time turner to do something else. (e.g. Use 6 versions of him to do something in parallel at the same time).
When choosing between closing doors available to him and researching, the rationalist researches first.
What's going on here? Is it just that Harry isn't paying attention to what's happening around him?
Yeah, it sounded like a first person perspective of Harry-in-shock to me.
No, the abruptly-ended and grammatically-incorrect sentence preceding this passage indicates actual discontinuity:
"Dumbledore wasn't being very cooperative, and in any case this was several minutes after the critical location within Time"
Notice the lack of punctuation. The end of this sentence has been lopped off, and deliberately. Eliezer Yudkowsky does not make careless punctuation errors.
For some reason, my gut instinct is telling me that this is an abnormally important detail. Hooray pattern matching and cache lookup hardware I suppose.
Prediction: Harry will attempt to learn Obliviation, use his Time-Turner to go back to before, and attempt to mess with his own head to save Hermione while preserving his own experience of events.
This is more likely to not work than work.
What's up with Quirrell's twitching lips in Chapter 90?
And then moments later after being deflected from the spell (which, though not named, is probably Fiendfyre?)
At the time I read it I just assumed that Quirrell's plans to turn Harry dark were advancing by leaps and bounds and getting such decisive confirmation was causing him to be happy about what he had wrought. After thinking about it some more I'm now wondering if "THE ONE WHO WILL TEAR APART THE VERY STARS IN HEAVEN" is someone who should be playing with fiendfyre? Maybe Quirrell's twitches were a sign of fear or worry based on having private knowledge of the prophesy in Chapter 89, in which case a prophetically ironic strategy adjustment may be in the offing?
I find it incredible that Quirrel would ever show his true emotional state on his face, unless he wanted to. Especially given this chapter's title.
McGonagall's lips twitch when she's stifling a smile (this is stated several times in the text). Perhaps the same is true of Quirrell? In the second case, canon!Quirrell is responsible for both trolls that occur in the first book and at least according to Harry Potter Wikia is supposed to have a talent for using trolls. In the first case... I think what happened when Voldemort killed Harry's parents involved a sacrificial ritual (Lily sacrificing her life for Harry), so Quirrell might have found that particular idea ironic. Or maybe he's just amused by the idea of Harry using sacrificial rituals because of previous events.
Also Dumbledore:
No old uses for Quirrel aside from this:
On a side note -
"But what I must actually tell you is that you will find the standard introductory text in the north-northwest stacks of the main Hogwarts library, filed under M."
First, I rather appreciate the comic relief, Eliezer.
... But second, what the heck are Memory Charms doing outside the--
Right. Hogwarts. Crazies. Nevermind.
Keep in mind that while on the one hand, memory charms are a crazy broken superweapon for anyone with a bit of unrestrained creativity, they also seem to be a standard response for ordinary wizards on the spot dealing with muggles who've caught a slip in the Statute of Secrecy (for instance, a rampaging dragon.)
Counting against this observation is the statement that they're "illegal to use without Ministry authorization". Counting for it is the fact that Quirrell and the other villain candidates seem happy to use them whenever convenient with no negative consequences. Given that the Ministry apparently has a magical net capable of instantly detecting underage spell use, it's odd that they seem completely unable to monitor the use of conditionally legal, illegal, and Unforgiveable magic.
While they can detect underage spell use, if I remember correctly they canonically cannot detect the type of magic being used. Perhaps it would have been possible to set up spells to detect types of spells in use by adults, perhaps not, but I think wizarding norms on privacy and individual rights probably would make it politically unviable in any case. Remember when Harry offered Minerva his wand when he was going to be staying at home, and she responded that "that isn't done." Wizarding minors aren't allowed to use magic unsupervised, but even muggleborns at home with no adult wizards are still left the use of their wands. That strikes me as a society which has some very strong norms about autonomy.
Yes, perhaps. This makes sense. But, IIRC, in Chamber of Secrets the letter that Harry gets from the ministry specifically states that they detected a hover charm being used at Harrys residence. If that is the case, it means that canonically they do detect the type of magic used.
Thats because (mild spoiler for the books) every young person has "the trace" put on them, which can be tracked. Any magic done in the vicinity of someone with the trace on will be picked up on. That said, they are apparently aware that it was a hover charm in book 2, so they can clearly detect the type of magic too...
NOT "how to cast a Memory Charm", NOT "the spells you are looking for", but rather, 'the information readily available to students'.
Or Quirrell, who has declared his intention to visit the restricted section, is planning to plant the book for Harry's 'benefit.'
Doubtful. That's not a lie Quirrell can sustain: Harry can ask anyone else what the status of memory charms is in the Hogwarts curriculum.
Wizards in general need memory charms to deal with muggles, so that's a plausible reason they aren't seen as Dark by the wizarding community. There are probably strong cultural taboos against using them on other wizards (as opposed to muggles), in the same way there are strong cultural taboos against using cars to run over pedestrians even though that's a power that many teenagers acquire here in the real world.
Here's how I would have saved Hermione if I were Harry.
In an accessible but seldom visited hallway of Hogwarts, a rail-way sign reads 6PM to 5PM Express.
At 5:00, a boy materializes under the sign. He is wearing a rail-way conductor's hat. He is holding a trunk. His name is Harry Potter.
Conductor Harry puts down the trunk. He opens the lid. Inside his Trunk of Holding are wooden seats numbered 1 through 1000. All seats appear to be empty.
Conductor Harry yells "Arriving at 5PM! Please add one tally to your forearm now".
Silently, hundreds of people draw a tally mark on their arms.
Conductor Harry steps away from the trunk and the hundreds invisible passengers of the 6PM to 5PM Express disembark.
At 5:10, Conductor Harry closes the trunk lid. He stashes the trunk [EDIT] and Time-Turner in the Great Hall.
At 5:12, Conductor Harry burns his conductor hat. He draws one tally mark on his previously blank arm, and puts on his invisibility cloak. He sighs. He has a long day ahead of him.
...
At 5:30 in the Astronomy Tower, a smelly and disheveled Harry Potter pulls off his invisibility cloak. He is covered with hundreds of tally marks, and looks like he hasn't slept in days. He yells "Screw this, I'm done!", collapses on the floor, and falls asleep.
...
At 5:40, the original Harry goes to his room. He has done no time traveling today, and has no tally marks on his arm.
Original Harry locates his trunk and his conductor's hat.
At 5:45, Original Harry brings his trunk and hat to the hallway with a 6PM to 5PM Express sign.
At 5:50, Original Harry puts on his conductor's hat. Harry -- now Conductor Harry -- opens the trunk, steps aside, and yells "All aboard the 6PM to 5PM Express!. Please go to your assigned seat."
Hundreds of invisible Harrys silently climb into the trunk. Each Harry counts the tallies on his arm and sits in the corresponding seat.
At 5:59, conductor Harry yells "Last Call for the 6PM to 5PM Express!"
At 6:00, conductor Harry closes his trunk. He picks up his trunk, and flips his time-turner.
Using this method, Harry can get as much time as he wants to study obliviation, transfigure large objects, or anything else, all with a single twist of his time turner. That's more than enough time to learn to obliviate yourself (and maybe the Weasley) and fake Hermione's death.
Somewhat-credible conjecture: It is not possible for one Time-Turner to transport another through time. So when conductor Harry, carrying his trunk supposedly full of passenger Harries (Harrys?), flips his Time-Turner ... something bad happens. Maybe the others get left behind somehow, or the Time-Turner just doesn't work, or the universe ends, or something. Consequence: at least in any consistent branch of the universe, Harry fails to get his army of copies.
Can't this be solved by having conductor Harry pass his Time-Turner to smelly Harry around 5:30 PM? Then none of the in-between Potters actually have Time-Turners.
Whether this method works or not is up to the GM; the as-stated rule is that "information cannot go back more than six hours in time, using any combination of Time-Turners", which would allow this, but it's possible that anything which results in someone having more than 30 hours to a day is also bad. Granted, the hypothesis that 6 hours is the universe simulator's buffer size would suggest that this works.
It's a bit scary that if this scheme fails, there's no clean way for it to fail. In the very simplest case -- you go back in time 6 hours and then try to go back in time 1 more hour -- presumably the Time-Turner just doesn't work and nothing happens. Here, that outcome is not self-consistent: there's only one spin of the Time-Turner, and if it fails then there are no multiple Harry Potters so there is no reason for it to fail.
So if this scheme goes against the Time-Turner constraints, the only consistent outcome is that something unspecified happens to one of the first 6 Harry Potters to prevent them from getting back into the trunk. And summoning unspecified obstacles by the power of Time-Turner consistency seems like a really bad idea.
To fix this, we could have each Harry Potter toss a 100-sided die and leave the loop on a 1 being rolled; then run this algorithm several times. It's likely that spontaneous catastrophic failure has a probability much less than 1%, so the most likely consistent loop assuming this scheme doesn't work is one in which Harry rolls a 1 early on, which is very unlikely to happen assuming this scheme does work. So if several trials of this algorithm consistently keep ending after 1-6 repetitions, then it's almost certain that the universe doesn't like it.
Well, he can get as much time as he wants in 40 minute intervals with no breaks in between. Smelly Harry must have been awake at least 1 hour per mark on his arm, unless he has at some point mastered Polyphasic sleep (which is completely contrary to his aberrant sleep cycles as mentioned previously) he is going to be significantly diminished in terms of mental acuity after a mere 24 or so cycles. He would need to spend a few cycles eating. After subjective days without sleep he should be moving into hallucination territory, barring some kind of magical aid. His "useful time" is only between 5:10-5:50 on each cycle, at other times he will be boarding or leaving the express.
It's a moderately good hack, but it isn't of infinite versatility, barring the addition of a bit more cheating to get around the sleep/food problems.
I think we can let Harry sleep. For example
Instead of drawing a tally mark on his arm, Harry punches a hole in a ticket.
Original Harry doesn't set up chairs in seats 11-20. Instead, he puts a rolling hospital stretcher where chair 11 would go, and leaves 9 empty spots where chairs 12-20 would go. The rolling stretcher has pillows, an empty sleeping bag, and a slot into which you can place a ticket.
When Original Harry moves the trunk to the hallway, he finds 9 stretchers lined up against the wall. Every stretcher has a ticket, and the tickets have 12, 13, 14... 20 hole punches. The stretcher are heavy, like a person is sleeping inside the sleeping bag. Original Harry moves these 9 stretchers into the 9 empty spots he blocked out earlier.
Original Harry puts on his conductors hat and waits for passengers. One of the passengers is Tired Harry, whose ticket has 11 punches. Tired Harry places his ticket into the slot on empty stretcher, climbs into the empty sleeping bag, and goes to sleep. Now all 10 stretchers have ticketed Sleeping Harrys.
On arrival at 5:00, Conductor Harry adds a punch to the ticket of all 10 stretchers. He removes the 10 stretchers from the trunk, and lines the first 9 up against the wall. The last stretcher, with 21 holes punched in its ticket, Conductor Harry stashes in the Great Hall.
At 5:30ish, in the Great Hall, a newly Refreshed Harry wakes up. He gets out of his sleeping bag, picks up his ticket, and continues the day.
So, uh, why isn't Harry trying to save Neville?
I have experiments to run
There is research to be done
On the people who are still alive
Neville is neither dead, nor in immediate danger. In light of what happened to Hermione, in particular how all their precautions were bypassed, they will want to up Neville's security level, and I think it likely that this will come up before the arc is over, but I would not say that it has immediate level urgency.
Multiple FF.net reviews suggest getting Harry's parents to try and cheer him up. But what about this, before the beginning of chapter 1:
I predict Harry might realise his father can help him and find a way to ask/make him help. All the PCs and powerful NPCs around him want Hermione to be dead (either through action or inaction). If she can be revived, a professor of biochemistry might just have relevant knowledge, equipment, and the will to act. Come to think of it, even more so might Hermione's parents.
The biggest problem I see with this is that in the past, Harry felt his father did not take him seriously. However, he now has power his father knows not, and he has resolved to do anything to bring her back - he could credibly threaten his father's career, for example.
The second problem is that Harry may be too wrapped up with being responsible and needing to fix this himself to think of asking anyone else for help, but signalling him via Patronus is at least worth a try and costs little - "We are in a war situation, my best friend was just killed by a double traumatic leg amputation, but I've cooled her to 5 degrees and trying to work out what to do next. Ideas? I am deadly serious."
you're uh, assigning just a tad too much power to the average biochemist.
Professor Evans-Veres is at Oxford, so he's probably a well-above-average biochemist.
Bear in mind that the question isn't "can top biochemistry professors help stop/undo death" -- it's "can a high-end biochemist be of help, if you can do magic and rearrange matter at the molecular level." And that seems relatively plausible.
you're uh, assigning just a tad too much power to the well above average biochemist.
More seriously, I think Harry's path here is much more magic than bio focused. He's seen memories removed and copied. If he can figure out how to remove ALL the memories from a body, and if he knows the obliviate charm, and if dead cells work for poly juice (which they should since hair is dead) then he has a decent path using only minor variants to known magic.
But the way memories are stored in Pensieves, all they provide is a firstperson video feed of things that have happened. That's not enough information to make up a whole person.
Is it first person video, or first person full sense feed (including sound smell, feel of the chair etc.)? Because if its a first person full sense feed, plugging that into human brains is how we get people right now.
If you push the same feed into a brain, you might get the same person at the end. I'll note that the Mr. Bester storyline makes a point of showing how reproducible thoughts are given the same conditions.
Getting his father (or just about anyone) up to speed enough to be able to help within the six hour window seems unlikely. The problem isn't motivation.
Could you propose a specific way that a high-end biochemist can help with the condition in which Hermoine happen to be?
If his father does not take him seriously, then credible threats are both difficult and costly (because once you have made the threat and they dismiss you, then you need to follow through).
Harry is also bad at threatening, and so I would not recommend it to him even if it were optimal for one with more skill.
This chapter showed that, if it appears that a Time Turner wasn't used, they don't try to use it. Presumably, the reverse is also true. If it appears that it is used, they use it.
I've always figured that the rules deciding which stable time loop were something along the lines of the more likely it is for an event to cause itself, the more likely it is that one happens. If you want a specific time loop to happen, such as giving yourself a paper that factors a given semiprime, you'd make it so that happening causes itself, by copying down the factors if they are correct, and make it so it not happening causes a paradox, by writing something else down. This way, a high portion of time loops are the ones you like.
That can't happen here. They try to cause whatever happened. This means that any stable time loop that isn't too difficult to carry out is equally likely to work. It's implied that there's some sort of force at work here. While it's conceivable that most of the stable time loops with Harry factoring a semiprime were in the same reference class as "DON'T MESS WITH TIME TRAVEL", Dumbledore later managed to use the effect to gain actual information: the time travel he was about to attempt shouldn't be attempted. What's interesting here, though, is that it seems to imply that this force isn't just something that manifests when they do something wrong. It always chooses the time loop. Or more accurately, the rules that I had assumed worked whenever someone wasn't messing with time travel never work. The theory was completely wrong, instead of being something that breaks down under odd circumstances.
And I still wonder: why did the force let Harry do everything he ever wanted to do with time travel before, but then stop him now.
That force just made a very dangerous move. Perhaps it's not trying to do anything like paradox avoidance, as the "DON'T MESS WITH TIME TRAVEL" suggested. Perhaps it's trying to avoid all future paradoxes, by making Harry end the world. I've read about one story where attempting to abuse time travel resulted in the sun going nova. This is might be the same idea, but on a larger scale.
Back in the story's early days I predicted that prime factoring wouldn't work, because then the story wouldn't be about rationality any more... it would be about time travel. If my theory and your theory are syncretized then "the force" here is simply "Eliezer's plot generation efforts which will output a story consistent with his broader authorial intent".
In this model, the way the characters might be able to choice-fully manipulate "the force that chooses time loops" to give them what they want is by being genre savvy enough to have their planning process be the one that functions as a positive example of science informed x-rationality leading to good outcomes, and the stable time loops that come into existence won't be super dramatic, but they will helpfully nudge them closer to x-rationality-demonstrating victories. Harry's unlocked time turner (as of Chapter 90) becomes more interesting in this light.
However, it seems like there's an element of irony in this framing, because there is almost no scientific evidence that I'm aware of in the heuristics and biases literature (nor inspirational essays in Eliezer's sequences) that the skill of genre-savvy-ness is useful in real life. On the downside I've heard that keeping a diary may have a causal role in depression. On the upside I've also heard that reading more novels than normal tends to give people better "other human modeling" skills that can translate into higher salaries. But neither of these sorts of prosaic angles seem central to LW culture?
In a sense, this goes without saying. All stories run on narrative causality. However, part of what makes a story interesting is that it follows consistent laws. There's no drama in a cliffhanger if gravity isn't here to stay. Similarly, the time loops are much more interesting if they're controlled by the characters' intents and abilities, rather than directly based on what fits the plot.
If it's not useful, then that just means that you're wrong genre savvy.
I thought it was more that we are just following the story in one of the very lucky universes that has no paradoxes.
Say there are LOTS (not infinite, but unimaginably large number) of universes. One for every configuration, every difference, every spontaneously created particle.
If a paradox is created, the universe ends. (or never was; depending on how you think about it).
We are following a story in one of the universes that did not end due to paradox.
In another one of these universes, harry continued with his experiment. This universe was never meant to be, and in fact it never was. Nobody was around in this universe to write a story about it.
In another one of these universes a toaster materialized out of nowhere next to harry. It stopped his time-travel experiment, and also confused him for the rest of his life. This story was confusing.
In another one of these universes our solar system was never formed. This story was dull.
In one of these universes something clicked in Harrys mind and made him impulsively send back a note saying "DON'T MESS WITH TIME TRAVEL" . This deterred further advances down this road, triggered a desire to send the note back and averted a paradox. This universe continued existing, and made for a good story.
That's like saying that we live in one of the very lucky universes that follow the laws of physics.
It's not entirely inaccurate. When you talk about stuff in math, it's common to do something along the lines of taking a universe of sets, and narrowing them down to the one you want. We take all possible universes, then ignore the ones that don't start with the big bang, then ignore all the ones where any moment contains a violation of the laws of physics, and we end up with our universe.
Those are two very different things. One results in entire universes existing before being destroyed. The other only involves one universe.
After reading 91 and 92, I'm almost certain that we weren't told something very important about what Harry did from the death of Hermione to the end of chapter 92. I just can't believe Harry Potter, the one who would raze Azkaban at the cost of his life before seeing Hermione send to it would just accept her death and not try to do the impossible again and again to save her. He even swore to "torn apart the fabric of reality" if it's required to help her.
And yet, there are dozens of things he could have tried but apparently didn't try. He didn't try to replace the "oxygenation potion" with a different potion, and when he faced Snape, he didn't even ask Snape if there would be any potion that could be useful. When he met his father, a skilled biochemist, he didn't ask him anything about how to preserve brains. He didn't ask Quirrell if there was a ritual that could freeze Hermione (either cryonics-like, or a kind of temporal stasis) until he discovers a way of resurrecting her. He didn't ask McGonagall if there would be a way to transmute her brain into a diamond-like or whatever substance that would keep the configuration of her brain stable in time. He didn't try to get Hermione to Alcor.
He didn't even try to use his time-turner just to get more time to think and try to find solutions, according to what we were given to read.
So, either he's just so full of pain that he's broken and unable to think, but it doesn't seem at all like that, or he must have tried many other things, much better than those few ideas (some which I got from the comments here). And if he didn't ask anyone for help, while he usually does when needed, it's because he already knew what to do.
Last chapter I complained about EY having hermione Stuffed Into The Fridge, i.e. unceremoniously killed offscreen to provide motivation for the main character. Today I find that he is literally refrigerating her!
nitpick: Hermionie wasn't just killed onscreen, she was front and center.
Since no one here has mentioned it (as far as I see), note that Harry spends a significant portion of chapter 91 checking his watch every two minutes. Also note the sentence beginning,
Given the frequency and the aforementioned sentence, I think it's not likely that he's just counting down the time till dinner. He could be distracting himself, but he keeps it up during the conversation with his parents. Also, HPJEV is presumably familiar with such a common method of distracting oneself when thinking painful thoughts.
For the record, my current bet is that he used his time-turner and some transfiguration to do something with Hermione's body. The first thing that comes to mind is partial transfiguration of her brain into something much more durable. Taking her entire body is also an option if he can work up a passable fake.
Also, note that chapters 88 and 89 are titled "Time pressure", and the exact date and time is specified repeatedly throughout the text. In addition, there’s something funny in chapter 90: Right before Harry has the hypothermia idea, there's a discontinuity:
Right after Harry explains the Frigideiro, there’s this:
Which suggests a time loss (likely someone messing with Harry’s memory, the discontinuity sounds a bit like what Mr. Hat did). The sobbs might be because the twins knew what happened during that time, and realized that too long passed for the spell to do anything.
Harry also looks at the Time Turner when he gets it unlocked, and seems to notice or confirm something.
There’s a lot going on here we’re not told.
It seems to me that Harry was a bit too quick to dismiss the Resurrection Stone option. Certainly if it functions according to his current conceptions of it it won't bring Hermione back in the sense he finds meaningful. However the experience of that soul/magic explosion at Hermione's death gives at least some evidence of a soul actually existing, even if still not enough to make it the most probable explanation for the stone's function, and there are other non-soul requiring ways that the stone could function such as looking back in time for the most recent functioning mind. Given the potential difficulty in finding it and the legend about how it's actually counterproductive its still probably not worth spending much effort pursuing it if you don't already know that pursuing it = convincing Riddle/Quirrelmort to go fetch it out from whatever defences he has it under or breaking them yourself, but he should still probably have put a bit more thought into it before rejecting it.
The impression I got from canon is that it works exactly as HJPEV believes even in the Rowlingverse; there is some evidence against this (the resurrected marauders insisting that death doesn't hurt, LIMBO! Dumbledore's information might not be things Harry could have figured out on his own), but as I recall, one of the resurrected ones said "We're part of you, after all", and Dumbledore's "Well of course it's in your head! But why should that make it any less real?" Even if there is an afterlife in the Rowlingverse, it seems like she really did not intend for there to be any method of communicating with it.
Of course, HJPEV does not have access to a copy of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, so you're right that he's privileging his hypothesis, and should at least do the obvious test--come up with information that Hermione would know that Harry couldn't figure out on his own, use the stone and ask the Hermione that appears about it.
Made trickier by the fact that the information needs to be reliably checkable by Harry. And preferably not something he might already have known but mostly-forgotten.
He needs, in other words, a problem in class NP but not P. (Where P is "Potter" rather than "polynomial".)
"The location and description of a specific item in your muggle bedroom" or "Chapter, author, title and quotation from a book that you read but I did not" and "details on your family that you haven't yet told me about" seem like places to start. (The bedroom/family ones require he didn't get any such information over the Christmas break, but from the sounds of it he didn't.)
Who are the (remaining) PCs in the story? Harry, Dumbledore, Quirrell, Moody... Anyone else?
Draco and Lucius, Snape, Bellatrix, Amelia Bones. Maybe the Weasley parents or Nicholas Flamel. I haven't given up on Minerva. Grindelwald is still alive and undemented.
And mentioned numerous times.
Snape, potentially.
Curious; when I read Professor Quirrel going into "protect the information from Harry Potter" mode for Macgonnagle, I almost immediately thought this was deeper than "I've changed my mind and it is no longer a good day and holyshit he's going to kill us". The overwhelming majority of readers assume he is being sincerely cautious in an effort to save the universe. I was assuming that there was obviously a slightly deeper plot involved, though I hadn't gotten far in thinking about what before I read the suggestions about alternative sources such as the Chamber of Secrets.
(Harry's lecture to Macgonnagle on identity-based strategy actually made me realize something about myself I feel is worth analysis... somewhere. I may or may not get back on that if I figure out if it's worth publishing.)
To me it seemed obvious that Quirrel was just taking the opportunity to isolate Harry from Dumbledore-and-co. He's always tried to make Harry distrust Dumbledore. Now Harry will find them even more obstructionist to his goals, so he will only have Quirrel to go to with his ideas and plans.
I wouldn't be surprised if the next thing we see is Quirrel supplying Restricted books to Harry.
This is definitely true, because he was encouraging Harry in private before setting McGonagall to oppose him.
Given the chapter title, the first thought that leapt into my mind is "he's being exactly what Harry wants/expects to see, then being exactly what Minerva wants/expects to see, leaving no-one including us aware of what he actually wants or is actually going to do". Malus points to Minerva for the fact that he told her straight out what he was doing to Harry, but it didn't occur to her whether he might be doing the same to her.
What's wrong with assuming that Quirrell wants to keep the universe intact? Quote:
I get the impression that this is a known part of the LW-sphere, but since no articles immediately come to mind that suggests there's space for one. I recommend committing to write something, and then deciding whether to put it into main or discussion based on how good you think it is at some specified point in the future.
I thought it might have been that he doesn't want Harry to destroy himself doing something stupid before he could take over the universe.
Came up with an idea of a method to ressurrect Hermione.
Brute force method:
Discover secrets of Atlantis, hack time travel, etc.
The problem with this is that time can adjust to avoid the paradox at any point in the timeline, which means that if you are a person who would try to exploit this, the sperm that would have created you was outraced by another one. So perhaps existing depends on not using this. (Parfit's Hitchhiker)
Or, if you try to use this and commit to be really serious about it, you get struck by a meteorite before completing the paradox. Or slip on a banana peel and bash your head. Or a get mauled by a troll. Some external cause comes in and prevents you from fulfilling your paradox.
Or you never come up with the idea in the first place.
Or abiogenesis never happened in the first place. That seems a lot simpler than nudging tons of different humans later.
The narration in chapters 88 and 89 have left quite a bit of room for Weasley Twin shenanigans. They are referred to as "the twins" and "Fred or George" up until one gets beat up by the troll. Additionally, the twins gave a respectful nod to McGonagall's demand that they stay in the Great Hall; they could have stayed there the entire time. Harry might have been accompanied by, say, Future Fred and Further Future Fred during his broom flight. I am not sure what the use of this would be, but it might involve them being a hive mind.
This has got me quite convinced that Fred and Fred is going to happen. They are probably connected magically, rather than acoustically, so they might be able to communicate across time. This setup might create the time beacon Harry was wanting.
Or, maybe their connection does not link through time. Send a pair of Weasleys back in time. You now have 4 Weasleys. Wait not-quite-an-hour, and then send 4 Weasleys back in time… 4 Weasleys is twice the number of Weasleys. Are N Weasleys N/2 times as smart as 2 Weasleys? No. It is much more interesting if it is the connections that matter. HE is the Weasley hivemind.
There was an off-the-cuff line back in Ch25:
I wonder if there is something more to a magical twin connection, that may have even caused problems (confusing the source of magic?), or if this was just a comment on how dark/backwards things were in the old days.
They gave a respectful nod because they are smartasses.
...what? They have a respectful nod because they recognized the seriousness of the situation, that it was not a time for pranks.
They only left when the situation got more serious yet, and they pseudo-remembered that they could help.
The most obvious reason for Quirrel's actions at the end of this chapter is to prevent the prophecy from coming true. The next most obvious, and what I think is correct, is that he's taking those precautions because he wants to make sure Harry doesn't die before he makes the prophecy come true.
http://hpmor.com/chapter/86
Quirrell is of the view that prophecies are sometimes of things that can be prevented.
What I'm surprised Harry didn't think of was bringing her to a muggle hospital. A combination of muggle and wizard medicine should be able to overcome some plain old shock and blood loss, no?
In canon, after several failed attempts at using magical treatments, Arthur Weasely tried stitches on his Nagini bite, but the venom dissolved them. It wouldn't be surprising if the troll's bite, either naturally or due to the mastermind's buffings, would have similar properties interfering with muggle treatments. Actually, now that I think about it, that's not a bad explanation for why Harry's first aid attempt didn't work. Canon Voldemort does not like making a kill strike that can be easily treated (Rowling even intended for Arthur's bite to be fatal, according to interviews, but changed it while writing, presumably because Harry's link to Voldemort meant this would have broken him more than because it meant he could call for help in a timely fashion, not to mention the effects on his relationships with the Weaseleys.).
Time. The sort of massive blood loss you get from having both legs traumatically amputated high on the thighs is deadly within minutes, at the absolute most. How does Harry get her to an ER in that time? Not to mention mobilising paramedics and whatnot from their rest state to the sort of instant correct action that would be needed. Modern medicine has its limits; the wounds described for Hermione seem to me to exceed them. Really, calling Dumbledore is much more inherent - he is an experienced combatant with access to isntant transport and no need to get things from a cabinet.
Well, yeah, but still, ERs can work pretty well, wizards can teleport, witches are more resistant to damage than normal humans, and some magic potions and charms could be added to the conventional medicine. And hey, sudden dual amputation is serious, but it's not completely out of the possible, even ten years ago, especially with tourniquets applied very soon, instant transportation, and magic bonuses.
I mean, where have you seen people die of blood loss and shock, with easy access to medical personel, and nobody trying anything?
Chapter 90 now ends with a note that says:
I did not notice this note when I first looked at the chapter. Does anyone know if this went up with the first posting or was edited in later? If it was edited in later, maybe we should take the random speculations more seriously. If it went up with the first post, then the same point may hold, but with regards to 88-89.
Eliezer added it in response to reader speculations.
I didn't notice it either. But Eliezer posted this comment on Reddit: http://www.reddit.com/r/HPMOR/comments/1hh5ph/ch90_salvaging_gender_bias_in_hpmor/cauafkt He may've felt the need to bring it to wider attention.
Dumbledore gave Harry the rock. Relevant? Or Harry just taking advantage of his resources?
I think that large rocks transfigured into something small are in general useful, and Dumbledore knew this.
There's a mention of him being one of the few people who have used transfiguration in combat and lived, I imagine he has a set of techniques like this of which carrying a transfigured rock is the simplest.
That's... actually pretty brilliant.
"Or if I'd - if I'd only gone with - if, that night -"
Which night is this? Are we talking about Draco here?
Phoenix