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Alsadius comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 20, chapter 90 - Less Wrong Discussion

9 Post author: palladias 02 July 2013 02:13AM

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Comment author: Alsadius 03 July 2013 04:44:38AM 4 points [-]

Bones is the head of the DMLE. Why would anyone need to call her in on a stray troll? If Hogwarts staff can't handle that, they're not worthy of their titles.

Comment author: ChristianKl 03 July 2013 09:55:31AM *  11 points [-]

The fact that there a troll in Hogwarts is a sign that Hogwarts is under attack by someone who thinks that he has something to gain from smuggling a troll into hogwarts.

If you notice that someone breaks into your house, you call the police. It's the right thing to do even if you sit with a bunch of friends and you have a bunch of riffles at home because you are an American who loves the second Amendment. The population of magical Britian is very small so Bones basically heads the local police department.

McGonnegal thinks that it's plausible that the troll is a distraction to an attack on the third corridor where something imported get's stored.

There's fog of war.

Even in the case where Amelie Bones has some other fight to fight at the same time, McGonnegal traveling 6 hours back and time and giving more information to Amelie Bones, helps Amelie Bones to understand that multiple targets in magicial Britian are under attack at the same time.

If Hogwarts staff can't handle that, they're not worthy of their titles.

Evidently they can't handle it and as a result one student died. Even if they were 95% certain that they could handle the troll on their own, it would still be prudent to go back in time and place a call for help.

Don't forget that there are people outside of the Great Hall like the Librarian.

Comment author: Desrtopa 03 July 2013 02:17:09PM 3 points [-]

The population of magical Britian is very small so Bones basically heads the local police department.

I'm not sure this is quite right. The population of Magican Britain may be roughly on the level of being served by a "local police department," but I get the impression that they have to devote a greater proportion of their government's resources to law enforcement than muggles would, because wizards are so much harder to police. Every wizard is much better equipped to create public disorder than a muggle would be.

Comment author: ChristianKl 03 July 2013 04:23:33PM 2 points [-]

Wizards in general are hard to police, but if the police has turn turners and a lot of the criminals don't have them law enforcement get's easier.

In any case an attack on the school to which the children of everyone go is a serious business and nobody would complain if the ministry does take great care that all children in school are safe.

Comment author: Alsadius 03 July 2013 04:58:51PM 2 points [-]

If you believe this is a distraction, why on earth would you use your ace in the hole dealing with it? Wait to see what it's distracting you from, and then start burning resources. Unless you want Bones to be out of time-turns when she finds out that she needs to go back an extra ten minutes.

Comment author: ChristianKl 03 July 2013 05:52:14PM *  1 point [-]

A troll entered hogwarts.

In general the troll runs faster than any human. It was luck that Argus Filch is alive to tell the people in the Great Hall about the troll.

This is not to be expected by the person who smuggled the troll into Hogwart. It would be likely that the first contact of the troll with a human would be with a student and the student would be dead.

Hogwarts wards don't go off on troll attacks so the troll might already have killed someone but if time turned people where around they could prevent that student kill.

The politics of a student getting killed after the affair is Draco is complicated.

Wait to see what it's distracting you from, and then start burning resources.

You can't undo things that are already happened with time turners. You also need to be in a position where you can communicate.

Unless you want Bones to be out of time-turns when she finds out that she needs to go back an extra ten minutes.

Then send a patronous to Bones in the now to ask whether it's safe to send her information 6 hours into the past.

In general the heuristic I advocate is when under attack is to communicate the information to everyone who could use it to help defend you.