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Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 20, chapter 90

9 Post author: palladias 02 July 2013 02:13AM

This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality and anything related to it. This thread is intended for discussing chapter 90The previous thread has passed 750 comments. 

There is now a site dedicated to the story at hpmor.com, which is now the place to go to find the authors notes and all sorts of other goodies. AdeleneDawner has kept an archive of Author’s Notes. (This goes up to the notes for chapter 76, and is now not updating. The authors notes from chapter 77 onwards are on hpmor.com.) 

The first 5 discussion threads are on the main page under the harry_potter tag.  Threads 6 and on (including this one) are in the discussion section using its separate tag system.  Also: 1234567891011121314151617,18,19.

Spoiler Warning: this thread is full of spoilers. With few exceptions, spoilers for MOR and canon are fair game to post, without warning or rot13. More specifically:

You do not need to rot13 anything about HP:MoR or the original Harry Potter series unless you are posting insider information from Eliezer Yudkowsky which is not supposed to be publicly available (which includes public statements by Eliezer that have been retracted).

If there is evidence for X in MOR and/or canon then it’s fine to post about X without rot13, even if you also have heard privately from Eliezer that X is true. But you should not post that “Eliezer said X is true” unless you use rot13.

Comments (609)

Comment author: palladias 02 July 2013 02:17:05AM 24 points [-]

I loved this:

That's not how responsibility works, Professor." Harry's voice was patient, like he was explaining things to a child who was certain not to understand. He wasn't looking at her anymore, just staring off at the wall to her right side. "When you do a fault analysis, there's no point in assigning fault to a part of the system you can't change afterward, it's like stepping off a cliff and blaming gravity. Gravity isn't going to change next time. There's no point in trying to allocate responsibility to people who aren't going to alter their actions. Once you look at it from that perspective, you realize that allocating blame never helps anything unless you blame yourself, because you're the only one whose actions you can change by putting blame there. That's why Dumbledore has his room full of broken wands. He understands that part, at least.

Does anyone else run into the problem of frequently giving this advice to yourself and finding it useful, but struggling to find a non-awful way to convey it to other people? I don't want to get them to self-flagellate, but to look for what leverage they have and not worry as much about what it totally outside of their control. Stoicism seems like the main way people hit on this idea of responsibility in my social circle.

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 02 July 2013 02:34:39AM 15 points [-]

My issue is that I don't have a good procedure in place for constructive blame: by default, when I blame myself for something mostly what happens is that I rehearse to myself what a terrible person I am without trying to figure out what I could do differently in the future (and then actually making sure that that happens).

Comment author: CronoDAS 02 July 2013 02:50:44AM 1 point [-]

Me too.

Comment author: palladias 02 July 2013 02:59:56AM *  8 points [-]

Well, being a stoic for such a long time means my reflex is usually, "What is useful here?" And when I run that check on kvetching, it doesn't make the cut. Sometimes I pretend to feel guiltier, since most people read practicality as callousness, but internally, I focus on, "What different action should I take or new data should I look for?"

ETA: Actually, the other check that helps me is asking: "Is there a causal link between my feeling bad and my being helpful?" Usually, no, or if there is, it does the opposite of what I'd like!

Comment author: buybuydandavis 02 July 2013 08:09:57AM 1 point [-]

"What different action should I take or new data should I look for?"

That's the productive question. Blaming yourself is unproductive.

Comment author: palladias 02 July 2013 03:13:16PM 2 points [-]

It's blame in the sense of responsibility, not in the sense of just feeling bad. I tend to frame things in terms of heroic responsibility, but a bit more regatively -- in terms of negligence. Every day I go out and sin against people, by commission or omission (or, in a more secular phrasing: every day I go out and metaphorically punch a few people in the face, in my thoughts and in my deeds, in what I have done, and what I have failed to do).

The reason I use the word 'blame' is because the harm I inflict on others is real and it's not alright. The fact that I haven't figured out how to be less negligent, more empathetic, etc does not magically mitigate their hurt. I use the word blame because working out right actions is not an abstract question that I plan to apply in the future, it's something I'm doing fumblingly enough to hurt people now, so I'd better improve right quick.

Comment author: loserthree 02 July 2013 03:17:44AM 1 point [-]

I used to have this problem a lot more than I do now.

It's possible the change is just the result of the aging chemistry of my body, but I like to think that the thing that turned it around was literally telling myself, "I want to be the kind of person who is cool with having done that." I had to accept the thing that had happened and had to become the kind of person that would accept it.

Or maybe I just had to age. It's possible that's why I don't do a lot of the things I used to find myself unable to stop doing.

Comment author: maia 02 July 2013 04:19:53AM *  5 points [-]

I am sometimes successful at this; when I am, the script usually goes something like, "What am I worried/upset about? What should I have done differently? What can I do to prepare for this next time?" And then I actually talk myself through the things I could have done differently and whether they would have been successful, and if I hit upon something that would have worked, I try to identify a heuristic or plan that would help me do better in situations like these in the future. And do something to implement it immediately, if possible, or at least burn in into my head so I won't forget.

And if I don't hit upon anything I could have done that I think would have been a good idea, I just say to myself, well, that was just a bad situation. (Like if I happened to do badly at something because of luck, even though statistically, I'm pretty sure what I did was a good idea, even having updated on the evidence of it not going well once.)

This usually helps because if I keep worrying, I just ask myself, "is this a different concern I need to address, or is it the same just feeling-bad as before?" And then if it's a different concern, I do the same thing, trying to identify if this worry is actually a signal I need to think harder about the problem.

And if I really, truly decide, on reflection, that the worry isn't a useful signal, I find that really helps in getting it to go away. Because that way my worrying side feels vindicated, because the concerns have really been addressed; I'm not just forcing them out of my brain because they are worries and worries are bad, but because they are worries with no basis in reality. Once I actually feel confident of that, then I'm not worried anymore.

The trickier part, sometimes, is remembering to do this. I'm less sure about how to do that.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 02 July 2013 12:50:05PM 6 points [-]

Current theory: rehearsing to yourself or to other people what a terrible person you are is a natural, self-protective response to what seems like an impossible demand. Sometimes the demand actually is impossible, sometimes the demand is understood correctly and falsely believed to be impossible, and sometimes the demand is defensively interpreted as impossible because the reasonable part is felt to be not worth doing but it doesn't feel safe to just refuse it.

I think this analysis is helping me to break the cycle of rumination about being a terrible person because it lowers the intensity. It's much better than "you shouldn't think you're a terrible person"-- that just becomes another failure.

Comment author: wwa 02 July 2013 04:27:16PM 1 point [-]

The answer is already in the story:

"I'm trying to think if there's anything I should be doing right now,"

Naturally Harry thinks of what he could have done differently and/or what he can do better in the future, but his main conscious focus is "here and now". No past, no future, no daydreaming. Here and now. I think this is an excellent advice.

Comment author: lukeprog 02 July 2013 02:48:42AM 1 point [-]

I think somewhere on LW there's a rationality quote to this effect, possibly by Geoff Anders. But I can't find it at the moment.

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 02 July 2013 02:55:54AM 17 points [-]

This one?

Things that are your fault are good because they can be fixed. If they're someone else's fault, you have to fix them, and that's much harder.

Comment author: lukeprog 02 July 2013 03:00:41AM 2 points [-]

Yes.

Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 02 July 2013 06:55:14AM 3 points [-]

BTW, the psychological technique you seem to be referring to from Stoicism is usually called the "dichotomy of control." And yes, it appears to be quite Googleable.

Comment author: buybuydandavis 02 July 2013 08:06:07AM 19 points [-]

I think Harry phrased it poorly, and if he meant it, he was absolutely wrong.

Allocating blame on yourself is a category error. We morally judge to separate the sheep from the goats, the wheat from the chaff - in short, to sort into piles of approach and avoid. You're stuck with you - where ever you go, there you are - so the point of the categorical judgment is simply inapplicable.

The sensible and very valuable part of what he is saying is to look to what you can do, and don't seek to console yourself with "that was his responsibility". Such interpersonal judgments are all about roles

because you're the only one whose actions you can change by putting blame there.

But you can change your actions more directly and more effectively by changing them. Putting blame on yourself is one of the better paths to depression, which is not an effective state. Blame others where appropriate and useful, but don't blame yourself, only search for actions to improve the situation, and choose them. You blame others because their actions are not yours to choose. Don't blame yourself, choose better.

Comment author: Gabriel 02 July 2013 10:11:11AM 3 points [-]

This is a problem with the concept of heroic responsibility. It's not defined with sufficient resolution to nail down the interpretation of paying attention to specific parts of the causal graph and exclude the interpretation of feeling like a horrible person. I can't decide if Eliezer doesn't worry about people coming away with the second impression or if he actually endorses it.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 02 July 2013 12:51:39PM 3 points [-]

Any thoughts about how to apply this sort of thinking when you're extremely stressed?

Comment author: palladias 02 July 2013 03:21:45PM 2 points [-]

I do it by reflex. But sometimes I seem to be helpful talking other people through it. Try chatting with a friend about wanting to think this way while stressed and asking them if they could talk you through it if you come to them. Role play a couple plausible scenarios where you would be unproductively upset with yourself and see if you think mopey!you would be persuaded.

Sometimes, I find it helpful to parody (in a warm, we're-sharing-a-joke way, not a cold, you're-being-an-idiot way) the idea that feeling bad could be helpful. "Let's sit here and feel bad together! Even if mopeyness falls off with the square of the distance, with two of us, we'll have a slightly larger range on our magical problem fixing field."

Obviously depends on your audience! Pick a funny image that the other person can recognize themself in and laugh fondly about. Riddikulus!

Comment author: ChristianKl 02 July 2013 03:10:47PM *  2 points [-]

I think it's helps to remove blame and responsbility from the equation when you try to get people to do fault analysis.

When trying someone to lead through a learning experience it's good to produce an enviroment where the person doesn't feel judged.

Comment author: Alsadius 02 July 2013 05:27:36PM 7 points [-]

Does it feel wrong to anyone else that he's basically complaining to a woman old enough to be his grandmother about how immature she is? This despite the fact that she's proven herself repeatedly to be willing to listen to good advice, and has pulled his bacon out of the fire by quick-witted crisis management at least once?

Comment author: Intrism 02 July 2013 02:30:09AM *  14 points [-]

I suspect Quirrell's closing statements to McGonagall at the end of this chapter are not quite what they seem. I'm thinking of two in particular: the first, that he wants Harry kept away from the Restricted Section, and the second, that he wants McGonagall and Dumbledore to try to restore Harry's mood by any means necessary.

The trick to the first one is that he hasn't mentioned sealing off a certain other means of discovering arcane secrets at Hogwarts. Admittedly, Quirrell's suggested that it's probably blocked off anyways. But it might not be; even if the basilisk itself is gone, there might still be useful books. So it looks as though Quirrell is trying to push Harry into finding the Chamber of Secrets. There could be any number of reasons why - though the fact that it's a secret, hidden place at least partially exempt from the Hogwarts wards seems like a good place to start.

The trick to the second one is that McGonagall's way of cheering Harry up is actually going to be quite predictable: she and Dumbledore are likely going to try bringing Harry's parents to Hogwarts. Naturally, this opens up a whole world of possibilities for Quirrell; he could use them as hostages, kill them, Imperius them, or do any number of other nasty things if necessary. Or, if he's interested in understanding Harry better, he could use Legilimency to learn all about his background.

Comment author: palladias 02 July 2013 02:41:23AM 27 points [-]

Also, limiting Harry's access to knowledge (warning off the other profs, warding the books, etc) makes Quirrell the sole conduit for advanced knowledge for Harry. (Or at least limits the competition). And Quirrell implied to Harry that he was at his nearly-unrestricted service. That gives Quirrell more access to Harry's thought processes (by the questions he asks) and more capacity to steer his choices.

As to what he's steering them toward, he pushed Harry off of new spells, which makes me wonder if he has an old one in mind. There was talk about rituals of sacrifice here (the blood-to-fire) and generally recently (Tracy Davis's invocation). It's possible that there's some ritual that Quirrell would like Harry to perform, not for what it manifests, but for the changes it makes to the caster.

Comment author: Intrism 02 July 2013 02:52:11AM 9 points [-]

It's possible that Quirrell himself intends to be Harry's source of information, but so far he's only been manifestly unhelpful. Basically every response he gave was a brush-off; he didn't even name his spell of cursed fire. When directly given an opportunity to suggest spells or rituals of his own choosing ("There's some magics I mean to learn"), he wasted it. It's possible that he did so out of concern that he was being listened in on, which would also explain his choice not to switch to Parseltongue; still, it certainly doesn't seem like he's trying to point Harry in any particular direction.

Comment author: linkhyrule5 02 July 2013 03:13:35AM 16 points [-]

In my analysis, I've considered this strong evidence that Quirrell is genuinely worried about what Harry will do. This isn't (just) a plot to get Harry dependent on him so he can feed what he wants into his ear; this is also an actual limitation on Harry's power, denying him information that he doesn't intend to tell him personally, either.

... given the Prophecy, I can't blame him, though we don't know much about the effects of fighting Prophecies.

Comment author: William_Quixote 02 July 2013 03:28:35AM 5 points [-]

hmm. I initially read Quirrell as being legitimately worried by the prophecy and taking what actions he can. , Although now that I say that I'm skeptical. If Quirrell was actually afraid of Harry ending the world, then Harry would be dead. Even if Dumbledore can put up serious resistance to killing Harry in Hogwarts, Quirrell would still likely think he has better odds than he does against the end of the world.

Harry is not dead, so its likely Quirrell does not think Harry will destroy the world (at least in the commonly understood sense).

Comment author: linkhyrule5 02 July 2013 03:55:00AM *  1 point [-]

Except that we don't know how Prophecies work.

Comment author: Desrtopa 02 July 2013 04:41:12AM 3 points [-]

If Quirrell was actually afraid of Harry ending the world, then Harry would be dead.

Quirrell might, in some manner at least, survive the ending of the world (although I note that the resources available to him after the world is gone do not support a convenient resurrection.) But Harry may have usefulness to Quirrell which is worth whatever risks he poses. Even with Quirrell's great edge in raw power and experience, Harry has already developed magics which Quirrell is not capable of.

Comment author: drethelin 02 July 2013 05:20:55PM 7 points [-]

One of my pet theories is that the reason Quirrel ever became voldemort is to take over the wizarding world in order to take over the muggle world to prevent them destroying the earth with nuclear war, which is the only thing he views as a serious threat to his long-term continued existence. He might risk harry ending the world if he's trying to stop another end of the world risk.

Comment author: [deleted] 02 July 2013 01:58:25PM 1 point [-]

Except that Harry is in some way central to Quirrell's plans for immortality - probably he's a horcrux, but maybe it's something else. Quirrell doesn't want to bump him off.

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 02 July 2013 03:09:41AM 12 points [-]

He probably also wants to push Harry away from new spells for safety reasons (presumably he thinks Harry might try to science up a dangerous new spell and that's how he ends the world; he has some experience with Harry attempting to combine magic and science from Azkaban). If he personally steers Harry towards old spells then at least he knows what those spells do.

It's also possible that the Restricted Section contains enough information for someone like Harry to figure out how to create spells from reading it.

Comment author: linkhyrule5 02 July 2013 02:45:19AM 3 points [-]

One thing I am reading out of this is that Quirrell is (understandably) genuinely worried about what Harry might do, after the Prophecy.

Part of this is making him dependent on Quirrell for information, obviously, but part of this also seems to be a genuine desire to keep certain knowledge out of his hands - I'm 90% sure that the stock answer Vector and Flitwick will tell Harry about spell creation is the same one that Quirrell just gave, for example.

Comment author: Fhyve 02 July 2013 03:20:51AM *  1 point [-]

Why does he think of beefing up the restricted section's security only after his conversation with Harry? What did he learn?

I also don't see bringing Harry's parents to Hogwarts as being terribly predictable.

Comment author: Intrism 02 July 2013 03:28:47AM *  5 points [-]

He doesn't necessarily learn anything regarding the Restricted Section in his conversation with Harry; however, immediately after his conversation is probably his best chance to have McGonagall listen to him about the Restricted Section.

Dumbledore and McGonagall don't really have very many options to cheer Harry up. It's suggested that they already tried other students. Regarding friends, his closest would be McGonagall and Quirrell, neither of whom worked, Hermione and Draco, who are both inaccessible for obvious reasons, and his parents. Of all of these, the last seem like the best option. This is particularly so considering that Harry would very likely want to shield his parents from his present emotions in a way that is not true of Dumbledore and McGonagall. We can debate how well it would work, but short of explicitly using magic on Harry (which might not even be possible, now that he's an Occlumens) it's the only thing McGonagall and Dumbledore could do that would have any kind of chance of success.

Comment author: William_Quixote 02 July 2013 11:10:58AM 2 points [-]

This post makes me think Dumbledore might try to procure Draco to cheer up Harry, but that might not be practical without great cost (political and otherwise)

Comment author: [deleted] 02 July 2013 03:21:52AM *  24 points [-]

I think it's more likely that Quirrell is being sincere, and that he is trying to avert the prophecy that he heard at the end of Ch 89. As evidence, I submit:

"You don't like science," Harry said slowly. "Why not?"
"Those fool Muggles will kill us all someday!" Professor Quirrell's voice had grown louder. "They will end it! End all of it!"
- Chapter 20

"HE IS HERE. THE ONE WHO WILL TEAR APART THE VERY STARS IN HEAVEN. HE IS HERE. HE IS THE END OF THE WORLD."
- Chapter 89

"... If I have to brute-force the problem by acquiring enough power and knowledge to just make it happen, I will."
Another pause.
"And to go about that," the man in the corner said, "you will use your favorite tool, science."
"Of course."
The Defense Professor exhaled, almost like a sigh. "I suppose that makes sense of it."
- Chapter 90

I'm actually impressed with Quirrell's control, here. We can judge how great his fear of death is from his response to Dementor exposure, and here we have a prophecy which (to him, at least) is signalling the end of the entire universe. He's spent decades desperately trying to find a way to avoid death, and now he thinks he's looking it straight in the face. And nobody in the story has even noticed that he's concerned, although I'm pretty sure he was showing his fear a little at the end of 90 there. He must be gibbering on the inside, and holding it together out of sheer determination.

Of that much I'm fairly confident. This next bit is speculation on my part. I'm not going to give a percentage, it's just a hunch, but it is my pet hunch which I've had for a long time.

Quirrell has it all wrong. HPMORverse is actually a simulation being run at some higher level of reality, and Harry is going to figure this out and either rewrite the universe to his will, or airlift everybody in the world the hell out of there by their bootstraps, thereby mass-producing immortality. Merlin was the last wizard to know that the universe was a sim and he patched it to stop people breaking it. Unfortunately this resulted in the loss of a whole lot of useful stuff which may very well have been grandfathered in.

Comment author: Alsadius 02 July 2013 03:31:33AM *  13 points [-]

HPMORverse is actually a simulation being run at some higher level of reality

The funny part is, we know this to be literally true. The less-funny part is that it is incredibly difficult for an author to write himself into his own story as a character without coming off incredibly hokey. Heinlein mentioned himself in passing a couple of times and it wasn't any worse than any other in-joke, but I know of no better examples than that.

Edit: I have, of course, forgotten Godel, Escher, Bach. Not sure how. That's a bit of a special case, though.

Comment author: CronoDAS 02 July 2013 07:17:57AM 5 points [-]

The less-funny part is that it is incredibly difficult for an author to write himself into his own story as a character without coming off incredibly hokey.

http://www.undefined.net/1/0/

Comment author: Benito 02 July 2013 07:35:24AM 1 point [-]

Although only tangentially related,

The film 'Adaptation', by screenwriter Charlie Kaufman. Kaufman had a lot of trouble adapting a certain book into a film... And so the film is about Charlie Kaufman having difficulty turning the book into a film.

Comment author: Alsadius 02 July 2013 08:31:33AM 3 points [-]

I've seen obvious knockoffs of reality and other pseudoautobiographical material done well. There's lots of those. But explicitly having the characters talking to the author, without any pretense, tends strongly towards ham-fistedness. And having the characters inside any other form of nested reality would simply be bizarre.

It's still a fun theory, but I will be greatly surprised to see it, largely because I don't think it can be made good enough to make EY think it's worth printing. Maybe a standalone story with that premise, but not as a tacked-on bit at the end.

Comment author: cousin_it 02 July 2013 09:15:30AM 0 points [-]

In Homestuck, gur fhcreivyynva xvyyf gur nhgube naq gnxrf bire gur pbzvp. Hasbeghangryl ur pnaabg qenj.

Comment author: elharo 02 July 2013 10:50:15AM *  1 point [-]

Animal Man by Grant Morrison Of course, that story eventually became exclusively about the character talking to the author.

Comment author: Swimmy 02 July 2013 06:11:50PM 1 point [-]

Vonnegut in Slaughterhouse Five. I think it comes off a little awkward--more a reminder that Vonnegut was himself in Dresden than anything pertaining to the story.

Comment author: linkhyrule5 02 July 2013 03:51:39AM 5 points [-]

Oddly enough, if you look at the Prophecy in terms of science fiction, it's not too bad. Star-lifting is a thing, and a Singularity of any type would look awfully apocalyptic to a civilization in medieval stasis.

Comment author: Unnamed 02 July 2013 08:14:19AM 27 points [-]

Star lifting is not only a thing, it's a thing that has been mentioned in HPMOR... by Harry... in response to Trelawney's prophecy.

Chapter 21, after Trelawney says "HE IS COMING. THE ONE WHO WILL TEAR APART THE VERY -" and is whisked away:

"Not to mention, tear apart the very what? "

"I thought I heard Trelawney start to say something with an 'S' just before the Headmaster grabbed her."

"Like... soul? Sun?"

"If someone's going to tear apart the Sun we're really in trouble!"

That seemed rather unlikely to Harry, unless the world contained scary things which had heard of David Criswell's ideas about star lifting.

Comment author: CAE_Jones 02 July 2013 10:17:53AM *  12 points [-]

Pointing out the obvious, but

scary things which had heard of David Criswell's ideas about star lifting.

Is long for "Harry James Potter Evans Verres". Of course, he gave plausible explanation for why it couldn't refer to him at the time, and all he had to go on was the letter s, so of course that hypothesis wouldn't have elevated itself to his attention at the time.

Comment author: elharo 02 July 2013 10:48:13AM *  3 points [-]

Question: what does it mean to say "X is a thing"?

Does it mean:

A) The concept exists? (e.g. Unicorns are a thing)

B) The concept may not exist yet, but it could exist? (E.g. lunar colonization is a thing; but unicorns are not a thing.)

C) the concept actually exists (Space stations are a thing.)

Comment author: ShardPhoenix 02 July 2013 11:56:11AM *  4 points [-]

Saying "x is a thing" is a way of reminding people of a relevant concept that may have been overlooked. Whether it's an actual physically existing thing or not depends on context.

Comment author: Velorien 02 July 2013 12:19:01PM *  5 points [-]

I believe in general Internet parlance its usage is closest to A, and more rarely C. Obviously, since A could be made about pretty much anything, it is typically restricted to "the concept exists, and is acknowledged by a sufficient number of people" (e.g. "Rule 34 is a thing").

Comment author: D_Malik 02 July 2013 01:54:08PM *  14 points [-]

And since the phrase "is a thing" is acknowledged by many people, we could say that "is a thing" is a thing. Unfortunately, ""is a thing" is a thing" is not yet a thing.

Comment author: Desrtopa 02 July 2013 04:43:16AM 20 points [-]

Quirrell has it all wrong. HPMORverse is actually a simulation being run at some higher level of reality, and Harry is going to figure this out and either rewrite the universe to his will, or airlift everybody in the world the hell out of there by their bootstraps, thereby mass-producing immortality.

I doubt it, on the basis that this is something that's unlikely to appeal to many audiences as a realistic application of rationality, and would probably cheapen the plot for a lot of readers.

Comment author: Bakkot 02 July 2013 05:00:15AM *  -1 points [-]

-

Comment author: linkhyrule5 02 July 2013 06:05:30AM 2 points [-]

Or material. Stars are great sources of raw matter, if you can get at it safely.

Comment author: [deleted] 02 July 2013 06:09:47AM 13 points [-]

Actually, the process in stars is fusion. The same as modern atom bombs, too.

Fission is used in nuclear power plants, and only really used to reach the conditions for fusion in bombs.

Comment author: Protagoras 02 July 2013 08:21:36AM 10 points [-]

Actually, most nuclear weapons get roughly comparable amounts of their force from fission and fusion, usually a little more from fission. Fission-only bombs are so much less powerful not because fission is but because they have very incomplete fission (around 1% for the Hiroshima bomb design, for example). The fusion reactions used in bombs produce a lot of excess neutrons, by design; all those neutrons flying around mean a lot more fission ends up happening. The only bombs that get most of their power from fusion are neutron bombs (which use a lot less fissionable material, and use the excess neutrons to increase the radiation damage) and clean bombs (which also use a lot less fissionable material, but replace it with lead to absorb the excess neutrons; clean is of course a relative term here).

Comment author: Alsadius 02 July 2013 05:36:46PM 0 points [-]

The biggest difference as regards fission is that fusion bombs use U-238 as a power source, which is capable of releasing energy from fission, but which doesn't produce enough neutrons to sustain a chain reaction. But when fed excess neutrons from a fusion reaction, you get an immense energy release from a very cheap material that's used as the bomb casing.

Comment author: buybuydandavis 02 July 2013 08:34:33AM *  6 points [-]

Also harkens back to:

“Hm,” Harry said. “Suppose you threw it into the Sun? Would it be destroyed?”
...
“It seems unlikely, Mr. Potter,” Professor Quirrell said dryly. “The Sun is very large, after all; I doubt the Dementor would have much effect on it. But it is not a test I would like to try, Mr. Potter, just in case.”

Also, on Quirrell's particular attitude toward the sun:

Harry had lost. There had been moments when the cold anger had faded entirely, replaced by fear, and during those moments he’d begged the older Slytherins and he’d meant it...
“Is the Sun still in the sky?” said Professor Quirrell, still with that strange gentleness. “Is it still shining? Are you still alive?

Harry lost, and Quirrell's is basically asking "was it the end of the world to lose?"

Comment author: elharo 02 July 2013 10:44:40AM *  1 point [-]

I'd be very disappointed if this were actually plot relevant. The only hint that this might be where we're going is in Chapter 14 and that rules it out:

You know right up until this moment I had this awful suppressed thought somewhere in the back of my mind that the only remaining answer was that my whole universe was a computer simulation like in the book Simulacron 3 but now even that is ruled out because this little toy ISN'T TURING COMPUTABLE! A Turing machine could simulate going back into a defined moment of the past and computing a different future from there, an oracle machine could rely on the halting behavior of lower-order machines, but what you're saying is that reality somehow self-consistently computes in one sweep using information that hasn't... happened... yet..."

Ironically Harry is wrong about this. In point of fact his world is a simulation, as are all novels and fictional universes (though I have to consider the possibility that Harry's world is still not Turing computable. We don't yet have an existence proof of a computer program that can write fiction.)

Comment author: gjm 02 July 2013 01:22:02PM 3 points [-]

What we see of Harry's world is a simulation and therefore (given a bunch of plausible hypotheses) computable. It doesn't follow that there is any "completion" of Harry's world, filling in all the stuff we don't see, that's computable, still less that there's any "reasonable" completion with that property. So I'd be hesitant to say that Harry's world, simpliciter, is a computable simulation.

Comment author: ygert 02 July 2013 02:28:41PM 0 points [-]

A lack of a "reasonable" completion with that property I agree with. But one could easily construct a computable completion. Specifically, the null completion. In other words, everything that that we don't see and is irrelevant to the story simply does not exist. (Until or unless it does at a future point have an effect on the story.)

In fact, you could argue that this completion is the "real" one: Until Eliezer includes something into the story, how can we say that it exists?

Comment author: solipsist 02 July 2013 04:18:14AM 7 points [-]

The trick to the second one is that McGonagall's way of cheering Harry up is actually going to be quite predictable: she and Dumbledore are likely going to try bringing Harry's parents to Hogwarts.

Huh. I assumed that Quirrell was trying to manipulate someone from the Order into to obliviating Harry to further alienate Harry from Dumbledore's side. Harry hasn't detected himself being obliviated yet, and that needs to happen in the next few chapters. But memory charming Harry to happiness a high entropy guess so I don't have much confidence in it.

Comment author: Desrtopa 02 July 2013 04:36:48AM 18 points [-]

The trick to the second one is that McGonagall's way of cheering Harry up is actually going to be quite predictable: she and Dumbledore are likely going to try bringing Harry's parents to Hogwarts.

Really? That doesn't sound like something I'd expect Dumbledore to do. It sounds transparently tactically dangerous given that someone close to Harry has already just died at Hogwarts, and his parents have no idea how to relate to what he's going through now anyway.

Comment author: Intrism 02 July 2013 12:37:11PM 4 points [-]

It might be dangerous; Dumbledore, however, will blame his own absence for the danger and rationalize that nothing will happen with him there. He kept on overrating Hogwarts' security after the last incident; this one seems no different. Anyways, as McGonagall put it, "What now, Albus? If he will not listen to me, then who?"

Comment author: Desrtopa 02 July 2013 01:35:47PM 1 point [-]

His parents don't seem like the obvious answer to that question, to me. Sure, he's known them longer than anyone else, but they never really understood or took him seriously. Pretty much the only person who he was fully able to relate to and trust is the one he just lost.

Comment author: Intrism 02 July 2013 02:13:24PM *  6 points [-]

Yes, I agree that his parents are not necessarily the perfect solution to this problem. However, you must consider that there is no one else to turn to, unless Draco returns or Harry brings Hermione back. What other plan do you think has a higher probability of success?

(Note that bringing Harry's parents to Hogwarts is also foreshadowed; Dumbledore tells Harry that he will try to have them see him at Hogwarts all the way back in Chapter 62, and yet they apparently haven't visited yet this Easter break.)

Comment author: MarkusRamikin 02 July 2013 09:56:48AM *  13 points [-]

Like I said in another post, I suspect Quirrel simply wants Dumbledore and Minerva to get in Harry's way in order to get him to distrust them. Or perhaps I should say, to maintain the distrust that currently exists. Asking them to cheer Harry up will only have them keep treating Harry's feelings as a problem to be solved, like what he yelled at Fawkes for, and Quirrel knows this.

He's cut him off from Draco, Hermione, and now he's working on Minerva.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 02 July 2013 01:01:02PM -1 points [-]

Hypothesis: Minerva gave those really bad orders under magical influence.

Comment author: Vaniver 02 July 2013 02:55:32PM *  14 points [-]

Some of those really bad orders match the ones she gave in canon, and Dumbledore doesn't seem to think they're out of ordinary for her.

Comment author: Velorien 02 July 2013 03:03:11PM 1 point [-]

The only obvious purpose would be to delay Harry, and it seems like a singularly inefficient way of doing that - I think anyone trying to predict his actions would have assigned good odds to him ignoring everyone and everything else and zooming out of there the second he thought Hermione was in trouble.

Furthermore, there are all kinds of ways trying to magically influence a professor could have backfired. The benefit doesn't seem worth the risk.

Comment author: palladias 02 July 2013 03:02:57PM 9 points [-]

I don't think this will drive Minerva from Harry. Despite the unpleasantness, I think this has decreased her loyalty to Dumbledore and increased it to Harry. Dumbledore was complacent about the lapse and didn't think she was worth blaming. Harry gave her a sense that more is possible (even if he doesn't think she can pull it off) and I think she'll surprise him.

Comment author: ChristianKl 02 July 2013 02:25:23PM 9 points [-]

I suspect Quirrell's closing statements to McGonagall at the end of this chapter are not quite what they seem. I'm thinking of two in particular: the first, that he wants Harry kept away from the Restricted Section, and the second,

He set up a situation where Harry wants in the restricted section but McGonagall is trying to stop Harry. The result will be that Harry will get annoyed at McGonagall and Dumbledore for forbidden him access to the restricted section.

that he wants McGonagall and Dumbledore to try to restore Harry's mood by any means necessary.

Harry asked Quirrell to tell McGonagall that he shouldn't be disturbt. From Quirrell's perspective McGonagall is likely to do something that annoys Harry when she tries to restore his mood.

Comment author: westward 02 July 2013 04:37:02PM -1 points [-]

I read QuirrellMort as being honestly horrified by Harry's conclusions from Hermione's death. My take is that Quirrell engineered the troll to kill Hermione in order to get Harry to become an agent of death, not of life. He thinks Harry could possibly find a way to achieve his goals and wants to prevent both Harry from getting Hermione back and from inventing "universal healthcare". There is also the side benefit of driving a wedge between Harry and Albus / Minerva.

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 02 July 2013 02:32:19AM 13 points [-]

"Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything."

The first time this sentence appears in HPMoR is in the italic text that begins Chapter 2:

"Of course it was my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything."

I'll assume the difference between "it's" and "it was" isn't significant. I'm inclined to refocus my attention now on the italic text that begins Chapter 1:

Beneath the moonlight glints a tiny fragment of silver, a fraction of a line...

(black robes, falling)

...blood spills out in litres, and someone screams a word.

I didn't know what to make of this when I first read it, and I still don't. Does this describe an event that has already happened? It's not Hermione's death, since that didn't happen in the moonlight.

Comment author: gwern 02 July 2013 02:35:58AM 10 points [-]

Does this describe an event that has already happened?

It's been debated constantly since the start because it's highlighted as important. The best guess was that it might have been when Voldemort attacked the Potters, but there's obvious problems with that (what's the silver? and as far as we know, no blood was shed by Voldemort since he favored AKs). Given that ch90 brings up blood as a powerful sacrificial element, it's looking more like it's about a future event and maybe a ritual by Harry - pursuant to bringing back Hermione being the obvious goal.

Comment author: noahpocalypse 02 July 2013 03:36:25AM 16 points [-]

When you said AKs, I immediately thought you meant AK-47s. That put a very amusing picture in my head.

I might play too many videogames.

Comment author: Randaly 02 July 2013 04:28:17AM *  4 points [-]

what's the silver?

The only plot-significant things that have been described as silver are Fawkes, the Time-Turner, Dumbledore's beard, Lucius Malfoy's cane, and Patronus charms. I think we can safely eliminate Dumbledore's beard and Malfoy's cane. If it is in the future, I would have dismissed the time-turner before the past 2 chapters, but not anymore.

(I still believe it likely describes the attack on the Potters. Edit: I no longer believe this.)

Comment author: JTHM 02 July 2013 04:32:14AM *  14 points [-]

"Beneath the moonlight glints a tiny fragment of silver, a fraction of a line..."

This sounds like an alchemy circle, which has to be drawn "to the fineness of a child's hair." I guess it involves the creation of a philosopher's stone.

Comment author: fubarobfusco 02 July 2013 05:34:34AM 1 point [-]

Or a horcrux? We still don't know what the ritual for that looks like.

Comment author: elharo 02 July 2013 10:39:33AM 2 points [-]

We know from canon and Word of Rowling that it involves murder, and is so disgusting it almost made her editor vomit.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 02 July 2013 01:03:09PM 8 points [-]

Nitpick: "felt like vomiting" is well short of being almost made to vomit.

Comment author: hairyfigment 02 July 2013 08:48:18AM -1 points [-]

Could be alchemy or related magic used to turn someone's blood into a fake burned body. (Free transmutation seems easy to recognize.) But I've been thinking of it as an event in the past, which now seems dubious.

Comment author: linkhyrule5 02 July 2013 06:04:27AM 0 points [-]

It could just be a random knife.

Comment author: Randaly 02 July 2013 06:17:55AM 2 points [-]

Possible, but unlikely.

Comment author: Velorien 02 July 2013 12:14:18PM 4 points [-]

The detail given could be that a knife is being used rather than a wand. And no-one we know would use a knife to kill rather than a wand unless there was a very special reason to do so.

Comment author: Benito 02 July 2013 07:29:09AM *  8 points [-]

In the first Canon, unicorn's blood is silver, and that has a life-extension effect.

IIRC, Canon!Dumbledore says it is used as a last, terrible resort of a wretched life (or something).

Comment author: ikrase 02 July 2013 08:40:49AM 2 points [-]

In canon, it's also Unicorn blood.

It could also be Harry using Godric Gryffindor's sword to murder someone (Bellatrix?) in order to power the Summon Death ritual.

Comment author: Alsadius 02 July 2013 05:39:56PM 5 points [-]

I've always interpreted the Summon Death ritual to just create a dementor.

Comment author: Fermatastheorem 02 July 2013 05:52:33PM 0 points [-]

Would Harry have access to the sword, being a Ravenclaw?

Comment author: ChristianKl 02 July 2013 02:15:36PM -1 points [-]

An alternative to Harry doing the ritual would be that Harry get's sacrificed by a ritual of Quirrelmort to bring back Voldemort.

Given how much Harry trust Quirrelmort, it should be in Quirrelmort's power.

Comment author: somervta 02 July 2013 02:49:55AM 5 points [-]

Note that of the italicized parts that appear at the start sporadically throughout the first ~20 chapters, this is now the only one that has not yet appeared later in the story (I went through and checked).

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 02 July 2013 02:51:00AM 2 points [-]

I thought they would be in reverse chronological order or something cool like that, but no dice.

Comment author: loserthree 02 July 2013 03:22:56AM 2 points [-]

When you checked, did you record the chapter with the epigraph and the chapter where the line appeared in the text?

And if you did, would you share it?

Comment author: somervta 02 July 2013 03:56:21AM 2 points [-]

I did not for all of them, but I can easily reproduce it. One moment...

Comment author: somervta 02 July 2013 04:44:30AM 25 points [-]

here. Format is ugly, but simple.

Number of chapter with epigraph - "epigraph" number of chapter with line in text - "original quote"

All are copy pastes.

1 - "Beneath the moonlight glints a tiny fragment of silver, a fraction of a line... (black robes, falling) ...blood spills out in litres, and someone screams a word." Not yet appeard

2 - ""Of course it was my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything."" - 90 -""Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.""

3 - ""But then the question is - who?"" 3 - ""Am I - could I be - maybe - you never know - if I'm not - but then the question is - who? ""

4 - ""World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."" 6 - "World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."

5 - ""It would've required a supernatural intervention for him to have your morality given his environment."" 87 - "It would've required a supernatural intervention for him to have your morality given his environment -""

6 - "You think your day was surreal? Try mine." 6 - "You think your day was surreal? Try mine."

7 - ""Your dad is almost as awesome as my dad."" 7 - ""Your dad is almost as awesome as my dad.""

8 - ""Allow me to warn you that challenging my ingenuity is a dangerous sort of project, and may tend to make your life a lot more surreal."" 8 - ""I warn you that challenging my ingenuity is a dangerous project, and tends to make your life a lot more surreal.""

9 - "You never did know what tiny event might upset the course of your master plan." 9 - "you never did know what tiny event might upset the course of your master plan."(also present in Ch 11, second Omake)

10 - none 11 - none

12 - ""Wonder what's wrong with him."" 12 - ""Wonder what's wrong with him,""

13 - ""That's one of the most obvious riddles I've ever heard."" 13 - ""That's one of the most obvious riddles I've ever heard.""

14 - "There were mysterious questions, but a mysterious answer was a contradiction in terms." 14 - "There were mysterious questions, but a mysterious answer was a contradiction in terms"

15 - ""I'm sure I'll find the time somewhere."" 15 - ""2:47PM on Saturday it is, then. I'm sure I'll find the time somewhere."

16 - "I'm not a psychopath, I'm just very creative." 16 - "The best Harry had come up with was "I'm not a psychopath, I'm just very creative" and that sounded kind of ominous"

17 - ""You start to see the pattern, hear the rhythm of the world."" 17 - ""You see, Harry, after you've been through a few adventures you tend to catch the hang of these things. You start to see the pattern, hear the rhythm of the world."

18 - ""That does sound like the sort of thing I would do, doesn't it?"" 18 - ""That does sound like the sort of thing I would do, doesn't it?" said Dumbledore, smiling."

Comment author: loserthree 02 July 2013 05:35:58AM *  0 points [-]

Thanks!

So 1, 2, and 5 are the only chapters where the phrase doesn't appear in the chapter itself. Do those numbers mean anything recognizable?

EDIT: Yeah. 4. 1, 2, 4, and 5. Upvoting for correcting me.

Comment deleted 02 July 2013 06:43:28AM [-]
Comment author: ShardPhoenix 02 July 2013 01:04:22PM 3 points [-]

And 4.

Comment author: Alsadius 02 July 2013 02:59:49AM 2 points [-]

The first 20 chapters mostly have similar italicized bits at the top. Many have come to pass, but Ch. 1, the most mysterious of the lot, I do not believe has.

Comment author: elharo 02 July 2013 10:34:57AM 1 point [-]

Anything to be learned by correlating the chapters where they appear with the chapters with the quote? E.g. do later quotes appear earlier in the book? Or do the appearances of the quotes reinforce the lessons of the chapter where the quote appeared in some way?

Comment author: linkhyrule5 02 July 2013 02:45:47AM 3 points [-]

"Or if I'd - if I'd only gone with - if, that night -"

Which night is this? Are we talking about Draco here?

Comment author: Benquo 02 July 2013 02:48:22AM 19 points [-]

Phoenix

Comment author: linkhyrule5 02 July 2013 02:50:19AM 15 points [-]

On a side note -

"But what I must actually tell you is that you will find the standard introductory text in the north-northwest stacks of the main Hogwarts library, filed under M."

First, I rather appreciate the comic relief, Eliezer.

... But second, what the heck are Memory Charms doing outside the--

Right. Hogwarts. Crazies. Nevermind.

Comment author: loserthree 02 July 2013 03:24:24AM 7 points [-]

... But second, what the heck are Memory Charms doing outside the--

Right. Hogwarts. Crazies. Nevermind.

Or Quirrell, who has declared his intention to visit the restricted section, is planning to plant the book for Harry's 'benefit.'

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 02 July 2013 03:31:29AM *  28 points [-]

Doubtful. That's not a lie Quirrell can sustain: Harry can ask anyone else what the status of memory charms is in the Hogwarts curriculum.

Wizards in general need memory charms to deal with muggles, so that's a plausible reason they aren't seen as Dark by the wizarding community. There are probably strong cultural taboos against using them on other wizards (as opposed to muggles), in the same way there are strong cultural taboos against using cars to run over pedestrians even though that's a power that many teenagers acquire here in the real world.

Comment author: loserthree 02 July 2013 03:56:13AM 0 points [-]

Harry can ask anyone else what the status of memory charms is in the Hogwarts curriculum.

I would guess that either

  • A) They will be evasive in answering any precocious questions because Quirrell asked them to be evasive about some precocious questions or
  • B) Quirrell wasn't telling Harry that wizards are stupid and keep dangerous things in plain sight. He was telling Harry that he'd "pass it to [him] beneath a disguised cover." in the guise of telling him how to learn more about memory charms.
Comment author: Alsadius 02 July 2013 04:15:04AM 14 points [-]

A) He doesn't need to ask a professor, he can just ask a seventh-year.

Comment author: loserthree 02 July 2013 04:17:01AM 1 point [-]

Good point. I'm sticking to B, Quirrell was telling Harry he'd pass it to him on the downlow. Note that he didn't say that the book would be labeled "Memory Charms," just that it would be filed under M.

Comment author: JTHM 02 July 2013 04:27:18AM *  6 points [-]

Magick Moste Evile? (This is an in-universe book from canon, in case anyone forgot.)

Comment author: hairyfigment 02 July 2013 08:18:50AM 0 points [-]

B was my thought - or at least I'd definitely check if I were Harry. But checking every book in the section seems time-consuming and suspicious. I think we should assume there is in fact a standard book on Memory Charms there. Doesn't mean it contains a single truthful word.

Comment author: ikrase 02 July 2013 08:33:12AM 0 points [-]

Even if truthful, it may not actually say how to cast.

Comment author: Fermatastheorem 02 July 2013 05:33:48PM 2 points [-]

In canon, Hermione casts Obliviate in her 7th year (presumably without consulting a restricted text from the Department of Mysteries), so the widely available book may actually have enough information for an intelligent reader to learn how to cast it.

Comment author: Desrtopa 02 July 2013 04:33:58AM 17 points [-]

Keep in mind that while on the one hand, memory charms are a crazy broken superweapon for anyone with a bit of unrestrained creativity, they also seem to be a standard response for ordinary wizards on the spot dealing with muggles who've caught a slip in the Statute of Secrecy (for instance, a rampaging dragon.)

Comment author: Velorien 02 July 2013 12:09:59PM 8 points [-]

Counting against this observation is the statement that they're "illegal to use without Ministry authorization". Counting for it is the fact that Quirrell and the other villain candidates seem happy to use them whenever convenient with no negative consequences. Given that the Ministry apparently has a magical net capable of instantly detecting underage spell use, it's odd that they seem completely unable to monitor the use of conditionally legal, illegal, and Unforgiveable magic.

Comment author: thakil 02 July 2013 12:16:27PM 3 points [-]

Thats because (mild spoiler for the books) every young person has "the trace" put on them, which can be tracked. Any magic done in the vicinity of someone with the trace on will be picked up on. That said, they are apparently aware that it was a hover charm in book 2, so they can clearly detect the type of magic too...

Comment author: Desrtopa 02 July 2013 12:21:57PM 9 points [-]

While they can detect underage spell use, if I remember correctly they canonically cannot detect the type of magic being used. Perhaps it would have been possible to set up spells to detect types of spells in use by adults, perhaps not, but I think wizarding norms on privacy and individual rights probably would make it politically unviable in any case. Remember when Harry offered Minerva his wand when he was going to be staying at home, and she responded that "that isn't done." Wizarding minors aren't allowed to use magic unsupervised, but even muggleborns at home with no adult wizards are still left the use of their wands. That strikes me as a society which has some very strong norms about autonomy.

Comment author: ygert 02 July 2013 02:19:51PM 4 points [-]

Yes, perhaps. This makes sense. But, IIRC, in Chamber of Secrets the letter that Harry gets from the ministry specifically states that they detected a hover charm being used at Harrys residence. If that is the case, it means that canonically they do detect the type of magic used.

Comment author: Rain 02 July 2013 12:53:49PM 6 points [-]

the standard introductory text

NOT "how to cast a Memory Charm", NOT "the spells you are looking for", but rather, 'the information readily available to students'.

Comment author: Macaulay 02 July 2013 02:53:54AM 7 points [-]

He had vanished from where he was standing over the Weasley twins and come into existence beside Harry; George Weasley had discontinously teleported from where he was sitting to be kneeling next to his brother's side

What's going on here? Is it just that Harry isn't paying attention to what's happening around him?

Comment author: tim 02 July 2013 03:09:14AM 10 points [-]

Yeah, it sounded like a first person perspective of Harry-in-shock to me.

Comment author: JTHM 02 July 2013 05:10:21AM *  10 points [-]

No, the abruptly-ended and grammatically-incorrect sentence preceding this passage indicates actual discontinuity:

"Dumbledore wasn't being very cooperative, and in any case this was several minutes after the critical location within Time"

Notice the lack of punctuation. The end of this sentence has been lopped off, and deliberately. Eliezer Yudkowsky does not make careless punctuation errors.

Comment author: linkhyrule5 02 July 2013 05:53:07AM -1 points [-]

As Harry's just pointed out, though, this is several minutes too late.

It's possible that there's still something a Future!Harry can do, but...

Comment author: Skeeve 02 July 2013 03:38:20PM 5 points [-]

Prediction: Harry will attempt to learn Obliviation, use his Time-Turner to go back to before, and attempt to mess with his own head to save Hermione while preserving his own experience of events.

This is more likely to not work than work.

Comment author: DanielLC 02 July 2013 03:22:26AM *  4 points [-]

This chapter showed that, if it appears that a Time Turner wasn't used, they don't try to use it. Presumably, the reverse is also true. If it appears that it is used, they use it.

I've always figured that the rules deciding which stable time loop were something along the lines of the more likely it is for an event to cause itself, the more likely it is that one happens. If you want a specific time loop to happen, such as giving yourself a paper that factors a given semiprime, you'd make it so that happening causes itself, by copying down the factors if they are correct, and make it so it not happening causes a paradox, by writing something else down. This way, a high portion of time loops are the ones you like.

That can't happen here. They try to cause whatever happened. This means that any stable time loop that isn't too difficult to carry out is equally likely to work. It's implied that there's some sort of force at work here. While it's conceivable that most of the stable time loops with Harry factoring a semiprime were in the same reference class as "DON'T MESS WITH TIME TRAVEL", Dumbledore later managed to use the effect to gain actual information: the time travel he was about to attempt shouldn't be attempted. What's interesting here, though, is that it seems to imply that this force isn't just something that manifests when they do something wrong. It always chooses the time loop. Or more accurately, the rules that I had assumed worked whenever someone wasn't messing with time travel never work. The theory was completely wrong, instead of being something that breaks down under odd circumstances.

And I still wonder: why did the force let Harry do everything he ever wanted to do with time travel before, but then stop him now.

That force just made a very dangerous move. Perhaps it's not trying to do anything like paradox avoidance, as the "DON'T MESS WITH TIME TRAVEL" suggested. Perhaps it's trying to avoid all future paradoxes, by making Harry end the world. I've read about one story where attempting to abuse time travel resulted in the sun going nova. This is might be the same idea, but on a larger scale.

Comment author: JenniferRM 02 July 2013 07:10:29AM *  17 points [-]

Back in the story's early days I predicted that prime factoring wouldn't work, because then the story wouldn't be about rationality any more... it would be about time travel. If my theory and your theory are syncretized then "the force" here is simply "Eliezer's plot generation efforts which will output a story consistent with his broader authorial intent".

In this model, the way the characters might be able to choice-fully manipulate "the force that chooses time loops" to give them what they want is by being genre savvy enough to have their planning process be the one that functions as a positive example of science informed x-rationality leading to good outcomes, and the stable time loops that come into existence won't be super dramatic, but they will helpfully nudge them closer to x-rationality-demonstrating victories. Harry's unlocked time turner (as of Chapter 90) becomes more interesting in this light.

However, it seems like there's an element of irony in this framing, because there is almost no scientific evidence that I'm aware of in the heuristics and biases literature (nor inspirational essays in Eliezer's sequences) that the skill of genre-savvy-ness is useful in real life. On the downside I've heard that keeping a diary may have a causal role in depression. On the upside I've also heard that reading more novels than normal tends to give people better "other human modeling" skills that can translate into higher salaries. But neither of these sorts of prosaic angles seem central to LW culture?

Comment author: chrisfarms 02 July 2013 03:53:47PM 3 points [-]

I thought it was more that we are just following the story in one of the very lucky universes that has no paradoxes.

Say there are LOTS (not infinite, but unimaginably large number) of universes. One for every configuration, every difference, every spontaneously created particle.

If a paradox is created, the universe ends. (or never was; depending on how you think about it).

We are following a story in one of the universes that did not end due to paradox.

In another one of these universes, harry continued with his experiment. This universe was never meant to be, and in fact it never was. Nobody was around in this universe to write a story about it.

In another one of these universes a toaster materialized out of nowhere next to harry. It stopped his time-travel experiment, and also confused him for the rest of his life. This story was confusing.

In another one of these universes our solar system was never formed. This story was dull.

In one of these universes something clicked in Harrys mind and made him impulsively send back a note saying "DON'T MESS WITH TIME TRAVEL" . This deterred further advances down this road, triggered a desire to send the note back and averted a paradox. This universe continued existing, and made for a good story.

Comment author: loserthree 02 July 2013 03:27:32AM 2 points [-]

It'd been one of the spells he and Hermione had experimented on, a lifetime ago, so he was able to control it precisely, though it had taken a lot of power to affect that much mass. Hermione's body should now be at almost exactly five degrees Celsius.

I feel like this comes off as a bit of an ass pull. It's the suspicious specificity that does it, I think.

It would be easy to prevent that feeling, if you care to and if it's not just me, with a throwaway line in an earlier chapter.

Comment author: linkhyrule5 02 July 2013 03:48:23AM 5 points [-]

Frigideiro was mentioned, though - when he tests his "dark side," his dark side isn't any more powerful with magic.

Comment author: loserthree 02 July 2013 03:58:25AM 1 point [-]

Frigideiro was mentioned, though - when he tests his "dark side," his dark side isn't any more powerful with magic.

Yeah, but not precision. That's why it's just feel like a bit of an ass pull -- a "butt snag"? -- and why is the way it's so specific is kind of what sets the alarm off for me.

Comment author: arundelo 02 July 2013 04:13:46AM 8 points [-]

I'd say mention in five previous chapters demonstrates that Harry is pretty comfortable with this spell. (I'm highly confident this was intentional on Eliezer's part.)

Comment author: BloodyShrimp 02 July 2013 06:02:06AM 20 points [-]

More specifically, in chapter 56:

Kill her and then bring her back, came the next suggestion. Use Frigideiro to cool Bellatrix down to the point where her brain activity stops, then warm her up afterward using Thermos, just like people who fall into very cold water can be successfully revived half-an-hour later without noticeable brain damage. Harry considered this. Bellatrix might not survive in her debilitated state. And it might not stop Death from seeing her. And he'd have trouble carrying a cold unconscious Bellatrix very far. And Harry couldn't remember the research on which exact body temperature was supposed to be nonfatal but temporarily-brain-halting.

He forgot to get his time-turner unlocked, but he remembered to look this up, evidently.

Comment author: Alsadius 02 July 2013 04:16:19AM 4 points [-]

A cryonics fanboy writing a story about a cryonics fanboy with access to a spell that can freeze a corpse? Specificity is to be expected.

Comment author: CAE_Jones 02 July 2013 04:31:25AM 6 points [-]

I don't feel like HJPEV comes across as much of a cryonics fanboy compared to EY. He always has to think for at least a few seconds to think about cooling a corpse--and it's cooling rather than full-blown suspension. He's obviously aware that cooling is a helpful way to avert the risk of permadeath, but he doesn't seem like he's precommitted to signing up for cryonics as soon as he can legally do so. Which, knowing this Harry, probably means he hasn't heard much about it.

Comment author: Alsadius 02 July 2013 05:11:30AM 1 point [-]

Granted, he's a candle next to a fire, and it was a very new thing in 1992. But remembering the best temperature is the sort of thing he'd do, even having only heard it once.

Comment author: MarkusRamikin 02 July 2013 09:29:54AM *  13 points [-]

I wonder if Eliezer is just being cautious, trying to steer the story away from anything that people would dismiss as blatant cryonics propaganda, and instead just plant enough of a hint to get the normals reading HPMoR, how should I say it, emotionally interested in the idea that a freshly dead person might be preserved, and revived later when we know more.

Comment author: Alsadius 02 July 2013 05:44:01PM *  3 points [-]

I'd believe it. I don't think he's going to go propagandist, I just think that "Someone I love is dead, better freeze them just in case it can be fixed" is a natural thought path for EY. It's possibly not even a conscious propaganda attempt, that's just how smart and thoughtful people are supposed to act.

(IRL, I think it's a bit different because of the cost involved. But these spells are basically free, so why not try?)

Comment author: CAE_Jones 02 July 2013 04:12:54AM 6 points [-]

Curious; when I read Professor Quirrel going into "protect the information from Harry Potter" mode for Macgonnagle, I almost immediately thought this was deeper than "I've changed my mind and it is no longer a good day and holyshit he's going to kill us". The overwhelming majority of readers assume he is being sincerely cautious in an effort to save the universe. I was assuming that there was obviously a slightly deeper plot involved, though I hadn't gotten far in thinking about what before I read the suggestions about alternative sources such as the Chamber of Secrets.

(Harry's lecture to Macgonnagle on identity-based strategy actually made me realize something about myself I feel is worth analysis... somewhere. I may or may not get back on that if I figure out if it's worth publishing.)

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 02 July 2013 05:03:14AM 11 points [-]

What's wrong with assuming that Quirrell wants to keep the universe intact? Quote:

I have no great fondness for the universe, but I do live there.

Comment author: DanielLC 02 July 2013 05:51:30AM 3 points [-]

I thought it might have been that he doesn't want Harry to destroy himself doing something stupid before he could take over the universe.

Comment author: MarkusRamikin 02 July 2013 09:18:55AM *  19 points [-]

To me it seemed obvious that Quirrel was just taking the opportunity to isolate Harry from Dumbledore-and-co. He's always tried to make Harry distrust Dumbledore. Now Harry will find them even more obstructionist to his goals, so he will only have Quirrel to go to with his ideas and plans.

I wouldn't be surprised if the next thing we see is Quirrel supplying Restricted books to Harry.

Comment author: Velorien 02 July 2013 12:03:59PM 11 points [-]

Given the chapter title, the first thought that leapt into my mind is "he's being exactly what Harry wants/expects to see, then being exactly what Minerva wants/expects to see, leaving no-one including us aware of what he actually wants or is actually going to do". Malus points to Minerva for the fact that he told her straight out what he was doing to Harry, but it didn't occur to her whether he might be doing the same to her.

Comment author: Benito 02 July 2013 12:17:39PM 1 point [-]

It seemed to me that Quirrel just wants to prevent Harry from bringing Hermione back so she doesn't affect his judgements (positively, but negatively for Quirrel).

Comment author: Vaniver 02 July 2013 04:07:28PM 4 points [-]

Harry's lecture to Macgonnagle on identity-based strategy actually made me realize something about myself I feel is worth analysis... somewhere. I may or may not get back on that if I figure out if it's worth publishing.

I get the impression that this is a known part of the LW-sphere, but since no articles immediately come to mind that suggests there's space for one. I recommend committing to write something, and then deciding whether to put it into main or discussion based on how good you think it is at some specified point in the future.

Comment author: DanielLC 02 July 2013 05:54:08AM 12 points [-]

Does anyone else here use dictionary of numbers (recommended on the xkcd blag)?

Hermione's body should now be at almost exactly five degrees Celsius [≈ recommended for keeping food cool].

Comment author: Alsadius 02 July 2013 06:30:38AM 6 points [-]

You don't want the meat to spoil, after all.

Comment author: Solvent 02 July 2013 10:49:03AM 9 points [-]

Not only do I use that, it means that your comment renders as:

Hermione's body should now be at almost exactly five degrees Celsius [≈ recommended for keeping food cool] [≈ recommended for keeping food cool].

to me.

Comment author: bbleeker 02 July 2013 02:57:36PM 0 points [-]

I'm switching from Firefox to Chrome, just so I can use this extension.

Comment author: shminux 02 July 2013 08:09:26AM 6 points [-]

Who are the (remaining) PCs in the story? Harry, Dumbledore, Quirrell, Moody... Anyone else?

Comment author: somervta 02 July 2013 10:52:59AM 9 points [-]

Snape, potentially.

Comment author: Discredited 02 July 2013 12:22:51PM *  14 points [-]

Draco and Lucius, Snape, Bellatrix, Amelia Bones. Maybe the Weasley parents or Nicholas Flamel. I haven't given up on Minerva. Grindelwald is still alive and undemented.

Comment author: shminux 02 July 2013 08:10:15AM 1 point [-]

Is Harry's Patronus 2.0 out of the bag now?

Comment author: Ritalin 02 July 2013 06:43:36PM 1 point [-]

Presumably not, modulo memory charms.

Comment author: buybuydandavis 02 July 2013 08:18:40AM 8 points [-]

No comment on the shout out to all the Sith Lords in the audience?

and magics that some might consider to be unnatural?"

I think the previous chapter was already bringing back a lot of Anakin flashbacks.

Comment author: moridinamael 02 July 2013 03:44:12PM 3 points [-]

I don't think anybody gets as excited by a Prequels reference as they do by an Ender's Game or Naruto reference.

Okay, I did chuckle.

Comment author: Ritalin 02 July 2013 06:43:17PM 7 points [-]

It's still interesting to see Palpatine of all people freak out and do his very best to stop Anakin from trying resurrections.

Comment author: MarkusRamikin 02 July 2013 09:39:48AM *  21 points [-]

Would you guys agree that Harry is being unfair to Minerva regarding his Time-Turner? "But you thought it was your role to shut me down and get in my way."

At the time she had it locked, she was right: he'd been irresponsible with it and needed to stop abusing his new toy every time a minor problem arose, and there's not a hint that even Harry disagreed with that. You can't refrain from such corrective actions on the remote possiblity that limiting your student's options will do harm. Not-limiting an irresponsible student's options in the relevant way can also lead to harm.

Comment author: Velorien 02 July 2013 12:00:48PM 10 points [-]

It depends on what other corrective options she had. She might, for example, have password-protected it as a form of probation, and told him the password. She could then check every couple of weeks/months to make sure he hadn't used it, while still leaving him the option in case of emergency. Of course, she probably wouldn't have believed him able to not give in to the temptation, and it's hard to say whether she would have been right at that exact moment in time.

Comment author: Skeeve 02 July 2013 03:30:52PM 13 points [-]

Of course, she probably wouldn't have believed him able to not give in to the temptation, and it's hard to say whether she would have been right at that exact moment in time.

Considering that she was reacting to the signs of time-turner addiction, a phenomena that had been observed in others before, I think it was a safe assumption for McGonagall to make.

Comment author: Alsadius 02 July 2013 05:47:47PM 0 points [-]

But the problem is, he's supposed to use it twice a day.

Comment author: drethelin 02 July 2013 05:14:25PM 13 points [-]

I think this is actually Harry's fault: He should've requested his time turner be unlocked as soon as he could plausibly argue that REALLY IMPORTANT things were happening around and to him. When Mcgonnigall first locked it, he was doing more harm than good with it.

Comment author: fezziwig 02 July 2013 05:34:23PM 20 points [-]

Yes, and it's part of a pattern of behavior. HJPEV consistently finds (seeks out?) uncharitable explanations for other peoples' behavior, especially when he's under stress. It's probably the most 11-year-old-like thing about him.

Comment author: mstevens 02 July 2013 09:40:26AM 14 points [-]

"So you also don't think it's worth the trouble of holding me responsible..."

This could be interesting depending how she reacts later. I'm mostly expecting despair, but with a small chance of a heroic Minerva.

Comment author: Ritalin 02 July 2013 06:41:23PM 2 points [-]

It's never too late for character growth. Let's just hope she doesn't do something stupid... I mean stupider than usual.

Comment author: elharo 02 July 2013 10:32:30AM 9 points [-]

I wish I could promise you that I would obtain one of those highly guarded tomes from the Department of Mysteries, and pass it to you beneath a disguised cover.

Estimate of the probability Quirrell is talking about Roger Bacon's diary?

Slightly higher probability given that canon Harry (OOtP) has a known propensity for ignoring gifts that could have averted disaster until too late.

Comment author: Velorien 02 July 2013 11:56:43AM 2 points [-]

Interesting idea. However, given that Roger Bacon's diary is of interest as a scientific rather than wizardly historical artefact, and wizards wouldn't know an item of scientific value if it electrocuted them...

Comment author: Benito 02 July 2013 12:14:03PM 9 points [-]

Er, I think he means that it looks like Bacon's Diary but is actually something more precious.

Comment author: Velorien 02 July 2013 12:23:53PM 2 points [-]

Palm, meet face. This is what happens when you get too little sleep as a result of staying up waiting for the next chapter.

Thanks for the clarification.

Comment author: Benito 02 July 2013 12:26:20PM 1 point [-]

Of course, the probability is somewhat lowered, because Quirrell would want to disguise it, and I think that the diary of Roger Bacon would stand out... A little.

Comment author: ikrase 02 July 2013 10:37:30AM 5 points [-]

Came up with an idea of a method to ressurrect Hermione.

  1. Cnvag n cvpgher bs Urezvbar
  2. Nfx vs fur vf frys-njner.
Comment author: Mestroyer 02 July 2013 01:04:15PM 9 points [-]

Brute force method:

  1. Precommit to create a paradox if whatever arranges time in consistent loops doesn't give you what you want.
  2. If you don't get what you want, receive a red or green slip of paper from your future self. Use time turner, hand to your past self whatever color of paper you didn't get. If you find that the paper has "Do not mess with time" on it, for the slip you hand to your past self, instead write "Fuck you, time."
  3. Discover secrets of Atlantis, hack time travel, etc.

    The problem with this is that time can adjust to avoid the paradox at any point in the timeline, which means that if you are a person who would try to exploit this, the sperm that would have created you was outraced by another one. So perhaps existing depends on not using this. (Parfit's Hitchhiker)

Comment author: Alejandro1 02 July 2013 02:25:34PM 16 points [-]

Or, if you try to use this and commit to be really serious about it, you get struck by a meteorite before completing the paradox. Or slip on a banana peel and bash your head. Or a get mauled by a troll. Some external cause comes in and prevents you from fulfilling your paradox.

Comment author: Ritalin 02 July 2013 06:39:34PM 2 points [-]

DO NOT MESS WITH TIME

Comment author: ygert 02 July 2013 02:16:29PM 1 point [-]

The second bit does not accurately distinguish between a frys-njner ragvgl naq n aba-frys-njner ragvgl gung whfg vf "cebtenzzrq" jvgu gur erfcbafr bs "lrf" gb "ner lbh frys njner?". Hayrff lbh ner vzcylvat gung fbzrubj nfxvat gur dhrfgvba jvyy znxr gur cnvagvat orpbzr frys-njner fbzrubj?

Comment author: cousin_it 02 July 2013 12:09:13PM *  5 points [-]

So, uh, why isn't Harry trying to save Neville?

I have experiments to run
There is research to be done
On the people who are still alive

Comment author: ygert 02 July 2013 02:35:57PM *  7 points [-]

Neville is neither dead, nor in immediate danger. In light of what happened to Hermione, in particular how all their precautions were bypassed, they will want to up Neville's security level, and I think it likely that this will come up before the arc is over, but I would not say that it has immediate level urgency.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 02 July 2013 01:11:55PM 1 point [-]

Is there any way that tearing the stars apart could plausibly be related to trying to save Hermione?

Comment author: tegid 02 July 2013 01:36:53PM 6 points [-]

The simplest I can think of is if huge amounts of energy are needed.

Comment author: [deleted] 02 July 2013 01:42:30PM 22 points [-]

A star would make a great sacrificial component for a spell. This chapter talks about both sacrificial magic and inventing new spells.

Comment author: Ritalin 02 July 2013 06:38:22PM *  5 points [-]

And thus this story's Holy Shit Quotient has increased to cosmic proportions.

Comment author: Desrtopa 02 July 2013 03:36:26PM 2 points [-]

Or raw materials, perhaps. Tearing apart stars sounds like something you might resort to if you needed more stuff than you could harvest from a planet. Computronium maybe?

Comment author: GuySrinivasan 02 July 2013 02:07:14PM 2 points [-]

Dumbledore gave Harry the rock. Relevant? Or Harry just taking advantage of his resources?

Comment author: Coscott 02 July 2013 02:39:30PM 11 points [-]

I think that large rocks transfigured into something small are in general useful, and Dumbledore knew this.

Comment author: FiftyTwo 02 July 2013 04:15:24PM 24 points [-]

There's a mention of him being one of the few people who have used transfiguration in combat and lived, I imagine he has a set of techniques like this of which carrying a transfigured rock is the simplest.

Comment author: Ritalin 02 July 2013 06:37:18PM 7 points [-]

That's... actually pretty brilliant.

Comment author: cywtLC2Fy8A 02 July 2013 02:48:14PM *  13 points [-]

Multiple FF.net reviews suggest getting Harry's parents to try and cheer him up. But what about this, before the beginning of chapter 1:

Petunia married a biochemist

I predict Harry might realise his father can help him and find a way to ask/make him help. All the PCs and powerful NPCs around him want Hermione to be dead (either through action or inaction). If she can be revived, a professor of biochemistry might just have relevant knowledge, equipment, and the will to act. Come to think of it, even more so might Hermione's parents.

The biggest problem I see with this is that in the past, Harry felt his father did not take him seriously. However, he now has power his father knows not, and he has resolved to do anything to bring her back - he could credibly threaten his father's career, for example.

The second problem is that Harry may be too wrapped up with being responsible and needing to fix this himself to think of asking anyone else for help, but signalling him via Patronus is at least worth a try and costs little - "We are in a war situation, my best friend was just killed by a double traumatic leg amputation, but I've cooled her to 5 degrees and trying to work out what to do next. Ideas? I am deadly serious."

Comment author: Vaniver 02 July 2013 04:05:01PM 3 points [-]

The biggest problem I see with this is that in the past, Harry felt his father did not take him seriously. However, he now has power his father knows not, and he has resolved to do anything to bring her back - he could credibly threaten his father's career, for example.

If his father does not take him seriously, then credible threats are both difficult and costly (because once you have made the threat and they dismiss you, then you need to follow through).

Harry is also bad at threatening, and so I would not recommend it to him even if it were optimal for one with more skill.

Comment author: cywtLC2Fy8A 02 July 2013 04:55:18PM 1 point [-]

Agree; that's not what I meant. I expect him to try any and all sorts of persuasion.

My point was that getting as far as a threat to his career would be acceptable in Harry's current state of mind; credible is not part of my point, but I think he could pull it off; and I think that would be sufficient.

Comment author: drethelin 02 July 2013 05:11:24PM 23 points [-]

you're uh, assigning just a tad too much power to the average biochemist.

Comment author: asr 02 July 2013 05:16:10PM 16 points [-]

Professor Evans-Veres is at Oxford, so he's probably a well-above-average biochemist.

Bear in mind that the question isn't "can top biochemistry professors help stop/undo death" -- it's "can a high-end biochemist be of help, if you can do magic and rearrange matter at the molecular level." And that seems relatively plausible.

Comment author: Tenoke 02 July 2013 02:49:11PM *  1 point [-]

Meaning to post this for a while not because it is a novel idea but just so it is recorded somewhere.

I think that there is a good chance that the story finishes with A SuperIntelligence of sorts. Furthermore, I think that if a SI is actually brought in the story, there is at least 50% chance that it will be a SI built/cast with good intentions which nonetheless destroys (in a way) humanity and/or the universe.

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 02 July 2013 06:20:43PM 3 points [-]

Doubtful. I think people would complain about HPMoR becoming too transparently an Author Tract in that case.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 02 July 2013 06:33:48PM 4 points [-]

Keep in mind that is already one of the more common criticisms of the story.

Comment author: Velorien 02 July 2013 03:05:32PM 18 points [-]

This has only just occurred to me, but if the sole threat to the students was (as far as everyone knew) an ordinary troll, and it was daylight outside, and they were already in the Great Hall, then why didn't the professors just lead the students out of Hogwarts and into the sunny open before assuming defensive formation? It would also have the advantage of giving a group of casters long range on a melee attacker.

Comment author: Alicorn 02 July 2013 03:35:42PM 14 points [-]

For that matter, I wonder if the sky illusion on the Great Hall ceiling counts? It reflects real weather.

Comment author: Baughn 02 July 2013 04:03:51PM 9 points [-]

Considering McGonagall's first impulse was sending them back to their dormitories, I believe they just didn't think it through.

Comment author: Intrism 02 July 2013 04:18:20PM 0 points [-]

That solution has the disadvantage of requiring the students to move through the halls, which is extremely hazardous. The Great Hall has its own risks, but the seventh year armies should be sufficient to secure it.

Comment author: Velorien 02 July 2013 04:29:06PM 12 points [-]

According to the Harry Potter wiki, the Great Hall is located off the Entrance Hall, which suggests that leaving the castle from it should be fairly trivial.

Comment author: Alsadius 02 July 2013 05:51:52PM 0 points [-]

The professors are mostly there, which is a sufficiently powerful bundle of combat magic to handle a troll. If you don't need to split them into four groups, then there's plenty of leftover firepower.

Comment author: Macaulay 02 July 2013 04:16:50PM 9 points [-]

Is there a page that lists all of the unresolved hints/clues in MoR? For example, Remembrall-like-a-sun, Bacon's diary, etc.

Comment author: JenniferRM 02 July 2013 05:31:11PM 6 points [-]

What's up with Quirrell's twitching lips in Chapter 90?

"That spell of cursed fire. I don't suppose it's a sacrificial ritual that even a child could use, if he dared?"

The Defense Professor's lips twitched.

And then moments later after being deflected from the spell (which, though not named, is probably Fiendfyre?)

"Pity," the boy said. "It would've been nice to see the look on the enemy's face the next time they tried using a troll."

The Defense Professor inclined his head, his lips twitching again.

At the time I read it I just assumed that Quirrell's plans to turn Harry dark were advancing by leaps and bounds and getting such decisive confirmation was causing him to be happy about what he had wrought. After thinking about it some more I'm now wondering if "THE ONE WHO WILL TEAR APART THE VERY STARS IN HEAVEN" is someone who should be playing with fiendfyre? Maybe Quirrell's twitches were a sign of fear or worry based on having private knowledge of the prophesy in Chapter 89, in which case a prophetically ironic strategy adjustment may be in the offing?