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firstorderpredicate comments on What are you working on? July 2013 - Less Wrong Discussion

8 Post author: David_Gerard 02 July 2013 04:39PM

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Comment author: firstorderpredicate 02 July 2013 08:53:52PM 2 points [-]

My initial goal was to do five hundred in a fifty-two day period, but unfortunately it's looking like this might have been overly ambitious.

"Awww, it sounds like someone fell prey to the planning fallacy." :)

Comment author: gothgirl420666 02 July 2013 09:44:26PM 0 points [-]

I don't really know if this counts as the planning fallacy. As I understand it, the planning fallacy is when you underestimate the time it takes to do a specific task. This was more like overestimating my energy and willpower, and therefore the amount of time I would be able to work in any given day.

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 03 July 2013 01:32:40AM *  3 points [-]

For the purposes of diagnosing planning fallacy, time doesn't mean time spent, it means total time. Quote from the Wikipedia article:

In a 1994 study, 37 psychology students were asked to estimate how long it would take to finish their senior theses. The average estimate was 33.9 days.

That's not 33.9 days of continuous work. Underestimating how much time you have available per day to work on a project counts as planning fallacy.

Comment author: gothgirl420666 03 July 2013 01:52:11AM 0 points [-]

Fair enough.

Comment author: falenas108 03 July 2013 12:26:49AM *  -1 points [-]

My understanding is that the planning fallacy is just not taking the outside view, for whatever it is. Depending on your past experiences, you may or may not have fallen prey to it.

Note: Firstorderpredicate's response isn't as condescending as it sounds, it's a Methods of Rationality quote.

Comment author: firstorderpredicate 03 July 2013 01:25:34AM *  -2 points [-]

Note: Firstorderpredicate's response isn't as condescending as it sounds, it's a Methods of Rationality quote.

Yes. (Spoilers deleted; Awfully sorry)

Comment author: jaibot 03 July 2013 01:18:15PM 3 points [-]

Dude, spoilers.

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