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Qiaochu_Yuan comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 21, chapters 91 & 92 - Less Wrong Discussion
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I have to write it somewhere - because what is the point of a belief that does not allow you to make predictions that you are willing to stand by - and I guess this is the place. I believe that Hermione is not dead (duh!), and planned this all for the purposes of getting Harry out of his debt to Malfoy and/or preventing herself from being used as a weapon against Harry. She used or was discovered by Fred and George who were subsequently memory charmed by Dumbledore, who has spent entirely too much time off-camera of late.
Edit: I'll add that - on the odd chance I'm right, and this ends up sounding like bragging - I don't think that makes me particularly clever; I think it speaks to skillful but subtle hinting on the part of the author.
The route from mental phenomena to actions does not have to pass through explicitly modeling and making predictions about the world. You can just have beliefs that function as simple heuristics for making actions without any modeling or prediction at all.
I find this highly unlikely. Hermione should have some concept by now of how destabilizing an effect her apparent death would have on Harry. I don't think she'd have the heart to knowingly deceive him like this.
I'll admit that's the problem I have the most trouble with, but after the debacle in the Library she may have felt like he didn't care, and / or be steeling herself to prove that she can be as calculating and strong as Harry.
On the other hand, it may all just be wishful thinking on my part. But it does explain:
1) the beginning of the scene in the Library (with Hermione desperately searching for a way out of the debt) 2) Harry's casual mention of the fact that he's not sure whether it will absolve him of the debt or not 3) Weasley brain wipes 4) Dumbledore's persistent absences
Plus it would firmly establish Hermione as Harry's equal, putting the boot in on various speculations about HPMOR being sexist in what I can only imagine would be an extremely satisfying fashion, from Eliezer 's pov.
Except that the plot was already established when Eliezer started writing, long before said sexism speculations developed. He's been very emphatic about that. So while this would be a bonus, it can't factor into predictions of the plot.