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gwern comments on Open thread, July 16-22, 2013 - Less Wrong Discussion

13 Post author: David_Gerard 15 July 2013 08:13PM

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Comment author: gwern 20 July 2013 08:53:29PM 0 points [-]

Perhaps it encourages one to make long-shot bets? If you aren't penalized too badly for P=0 events happening, this suggests that short-selling contracts at ~1% may be better than it looks.