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gwern comments on Open thread, July 16-22, 2013 - Less Wrong Discussion

13 Post author: David_Gerard 15 July 2013 08:13PM

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Comment author: gwern 10 October 2013 05:48:53PM 1 point [-]

Existential risk due to astronomical or technological causes, as opposed to divine intervention, is pretty novel. No one thinks global warming will end humanity.

Comment author: Lumifer 10 October 2013 06:01:12PM 1 point [-]

If you're well familiar with the idea of the world ending, the precise mechanism doesn't seem to be that important.

I think what's novel is the idea that humans can meaningfully affect that existential risk. However that's a lower bar / closer jump than the novelty of the whole idea of existential risk.

Comment author: gwern 10 October 2013 07:20:34PM 0 points [-]

If you're well familiar with the idea of the world ending, the precise mechanism doesn't seem to be that important.

"If you're familiar with the idea of Christians being resurrected on Judgment Day, the precise mechanism of cryonics doesn't seem to be that important."

"If you're familiar with the idea of angels, the precise mechanism of airplanes doesn't seem to be that important."

Comment author: Lumifer 10 October 2013 07:26:44PM 0 points [-]

"If you're familiar with the idea of Christians being resurrected on Judgment Day, the precise mechanism of cryonics doesn't seem to be that important."

For the purpose of figuring out whether an idea is so novel that people have trouble comprehending it, yes, familiarity with the concept of resurrection is useful.

"If you're familiar with the idea of angels, the precise mechanism of airplanes doesn't seem to be that important."

People are familiar with birds and bats. And yes, the existence of those was a major factor in accepting the possibility of heavier-than-air flight and trying to develop various flying contraptions.