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buybuydandavis comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 24, chapter 95 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Obviously Voldemort wouldn't announce when he was coming, so they wouldn't know that James would take it first.
There are multiple pieces of evidence, that when combined, make a consistent case. Dumbledore talks about being responsible for all that has happened to Harry. Dumbledore includes Lily in a very short list of heroines in recent times. It seems clear that Dumbledore arranged for Snape, and thereby Voldemort, to learn of a "prophecy" that led Voldemort to try to kill Harry. What Lily says when Voldemort comes looks like a clear set up of a dark ritual.
What Lily says is:
But we know that in any ritual, first is named that which is sacrificed, and then is said the use commanded of it. This does, incidentally, match the order that the Dark Lord speaks in ("Yourself to die, and the child to live.") but as Lily got it wrong it seems like she definitely wasn't doing a ritual, and if a ritual happened it was accidental on her part.
Wouldn't both V and Lily be experienced enough not to perform a dark ritual by accident?
I think that dark rituals in general probably aren't something one is at great risk of performing by accident.
Both of them described a dark ritual in terms of what the other gave up, then what the other got.
Per what Lily says, Voldemort gives up killing Harry, in exchange for Lily's life.
Per what Voldemort says, Lily gives up her life, in exchange for Harry's life.
Does this mean there were two different rituals proposed? The same one from two perspectives? I don't think we have enough of the theory of dark rituals to distinguish the two. Did Lily "get it wrong"? Under one possible interpretation, yes, and under another, no.
And then Lily may or may not have balked at the terms, and tried to kill Voldemort, and Voldemort may or may not have tried to kill Harry.
Harry really should have been investigating the details of Voldemort's death a lot more than he has, starting with an interrogation of Dumbledore.
Fair enough; I didn't think of the "sacrifice the chance to kill Harry in order to obtain the death of Lily" interpretation. Which I still think is inelegant but I have no good argument against it, so it has a right to exist.