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Alsadius comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 24, chapter 95 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Huh, noted. FWIW, I went in having not read the originals before, so when I went back through and read the originals, around Ch. 30, it seemed like a lightbulb going off when I saw how things were set up in the original.
Still, you'd think "it was in the original" would result in at least a high prior probability.