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RolfAndreassen comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 24, chapter 95 - Less Wrong Discussion
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It's not Harry's observations; it's everybody's observations of the world. People don't act like souls exist. If Dumbledore really thought that people just go on to another great adventure when they die, he wouldn't have a bunch of pedestals of broken wands.
Nobody in HPMOR believes in souls or acts like they exist. That's why Harry can decisively conclude that they don't exist.
Well, ok, but it's also been shown many times that most of the HPMOR cast needs to take several ranks in Knowledge(What The Heck They're Talking About) just to approach the effectiveness of the average level-1 fighter. Harry should not be weighting either their beliefs or their aliefs very strongly as evidence in any direction.