CAE_Jones comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 24, chapter 95 - Less Wrong Discussion
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1-epsilon: Perhaps Harry winds up simulating this world and beaming the ideas for HPMoR to Eliezer to see how people react, or perhaps Eliezer is really Harry James Potter Evans Verres with polyjuice and lots of memory charms, or some other highly unlikely possibility that could make it less than 1.
All of which is to say that the probability that Harry is living in a story is ~1, given the evidence available to us.
I was assuming the -elipson part just went without saying. Of course you're right.