1-epsilon: Perhaps Harry winds up simulating this world and beaming the ideas for HPMoR to Eliezer to see how people react, or perhaps Eliezer is really Harry James Potter Evans Verres with polyjuice and lots of memory charms, or some other highly unlikely possibility that could make it less than 1.
All of which is to say that the probability that Harry is living in a story is ~1, given the evidence available to us.
I was assuming the -elipson part just went without saying. Of course you're right.
This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality and anything related to it. This thread is intended for discussing chapter 95. The previous thread has passed 300 comments.
There is now a site dedicated to the story at hpmor.com, which is now the place to go to find the authors notes and all sorts of other goodies. AdeleneDawner has kept an archive of Author’s Notes. (This goes up to the notes for chapter 76, and is now not updating. The authors notes from chapter 77 onwards are on hpmor.com.)
The first 5 discussion threads are on the main page under the harry_potter tag. Threads 6 and on (including this one) are in the discussion section using its separate tag system.
Also: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24.
Spoiler Warning: this thread is full of spoilers. With few exceptions, spoilers for MOR and canon are fair game to post, without warning or rot13. More specifically: