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DanielLC comments on Applied Bayes' Theorem: Calculating the probability that she's over me. Could somebody check my work? TT_TT - Less Wrong Discussion
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Correct, at least as far as the math goes. I prefer to use odds ratios.
Prior odds that she's over me: 3:7
Evidence ratio of her missing my call: 90%:10% = 9:1
Posterior odds that she's over me: 39:71 = 27:7 = 3.86:1
Posterior probability that she's over me: (27/7)/(27/7+1) = (27/7)/(34/7) = (27/34) = 79.4%
If I assumed this prior I'd have to conclude that I'm over, like, everyone.
She almost never missed my calls.