1) What error bars? Are you talking about the relative uncertainty of the priors? Because it's assumed that these prior are only my best estimate. You're not saying anything new here.
2) "how hot/successful she is relative to you": I haven't heard of any studies that positively correlate physical appearance and financial success with reduced time to get over a long-term relationship. I admit that it's possible that there's a connection, but as of yet I haven't seen any evidence that would persuade me to include it.
3) "if she broke up with you she has likely wanted to do better for some time." Again, you're making unjustified claims with no evidence to support them.

"The usual post-breakup advice is to focus on your own goals for awhile."
Now this I agree with.