roystgnr comments on Applied Bayes' Theorem: Calculating the probability that she's over me. Could somebody check my work? TT_TT - Less Wrong Discussion
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I'm not sure why you were downvoted, but here's my best guess:
Google search, site:lesswrong.com "open thread" On my results page, any of four of the top five hits would have answered your first question and partially answered your second.
I'm not sure how to phrase the above paragraph in a way which doesn't make me sound like a condescending jackass, but I swear I'm trying to be helpful. If your first instinct with questions like these is "hope someone will be kind enough to answer me personally" rather than "use search engines and find most answers instantly", you can probably improve your life a great deal by correcting that.