I think something like this is more useful:
For each [reasonably likely] value that this information could take on, what would my choice be?
Ideally the two formulations result in the same answer, but I'd rather make it more explicit. It's easier to raionalize "yes, this would be influential" if you haven't actually produced the decision tree.
evand's formulation is also useful because in many situations when you identify the alternative outcomes, you may also see:
Later steps that will apply to either outcome that can be done or prepared for now.
Low cost things that you can do that will prepare you for alternative outcomes -- including in many cases a Google search, when you realize that you are lacking information about the less desired outcome.
Third options that you had not considered.
See also: Boring Advice Repository, Solved Problems Repository, Grad Student Advice Repository, Useful Concepts Repository, Bad Concepts Repository
I just got back from the July CFAR workshop, where I was a guest instructor. One useful piece of rationality I started paying more attention to as a result of the workshop is the idea of useful questions to ask in various situations, particularly because I had been introduced to a new one:
"What skill am I actually training?"
This is a question that can be asked whenever you're practicing something, but more generally it can also be asked whenever you're doing something you do frequently, and it can help you notice when you're practicing a skill you weren't intending to train. Some examples of when to use this question:
Many of the lessons of the sequences can also be packaged as useful questions, like "what do I believe and why do I believe it?" and "what would I expect to see if this were true?"
I'd like to invite people to post other examples of useful questions in the comments, hopefully together with an explanation of why they're useful and some examples of when to use them. As usual, one useful question per comment for voting purposes.