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ArisKatsaris comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 25, chapter 96 - Less Wrong Discussion

6 Post author: NancyLebovitz 25 July 2013 04:36AM

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Comment author: ArisKatsaris 25 July 2013 07:52:55PM 0 points [-]

What probabilities do you assign on it being from Draco and on it being from Quirrelmort?

Comment author: ikrase 25 July 2013 07:55:21PM 0 points [-]

Something like 60 - 40 or so.

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 25 July 2013 07:59:47PM *  9 points [-]

Heh. Mine are something like 95% and 1%. I'd actually consider it more likely for it to be Lucius's patronus, than it to be Quirrel's.

Comment author: ygert 25 July 2013 08:52:16PM *  0 points [-]

And here is a PredictionBook link.

EDIT: And one for the second prediction.

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