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itaibn0 comments on Group Rationality Diary, August 1-15 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Reporting a prediction: Two weeks ago I went to a talk on the Oregon Health Study. I predicted in advance a 70% chance of a result in favor of health insurance. While listening to the talk I adjusted this to 60% (in the talk they discussed the complications of extracting information from the study and I believed this would add noise). The results ended up being mostly in favor of health insurance.