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Open thread, August 5-11, 2013

3 Post author: David_Gerard 05 August 2013 06:50AM

If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.

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Comment author: Omid 08 August 2013 03:17:34PM *  33 points [-]

Generalized versions of arguments I've seen on Reddit and Facebook:

If you oppose a government policy that personally benefits you, you are a hypocrite who bites the hand that feeds you.

If you support the policy that benefits you, you are a greedy narcissist whose loyalty can be bought and sold.

If you have political opinions on policies that don't affect your well-being, you are meddler with no skin in the game. Without being personally affected by the policy, you cannot hope to understand.

Comment author: Multiheaded 14 September 2013 06:09:01PM 2 points [-]

If you oppose a government policy that personally benefits you, you are a hypocrite who bites the hand that feeds you.

If you support the policy that benefits you, you are a greedy narcissist whose loyalty can be bought and sold.

...but neither of these are meaningfully bad things according to post-Machiavellian political thought. Machiavelli dismantled the virtue-centric, moralizing system of "naive" political thought - finding wise, moral and incorruptible men to control society, as argued by Plato or Aquinas - and showed how the strength of a republic is in its internal conflicts and contradictions, how a naked struggle of competing group interests can ultimately lead to dynamism and progress. This is what most people don't understand about his legacy, and the great emancipatory power of making self-interest, not moralism the cornerstone of politics.

So yes, in some matters we're hypocrites, in others we're greedy narcissists... but society holds more hope for all of its warring factions when these facts are honestly acknowledged rather than wrapped in a cloak of "virtue"-moralism! And pursuit of socioeconomic self-interest has very little cross-over with following moral codes in day-to-day interactions, anyway. (No examples for either Blue or Green, let's pretend to be civil.)

...

So, (like almost everyone in earlier times), today's citizens succumb to a vaguely Catholic-flavoured way of seeing society, and end up less politically progressive than a 15th century theorist. Who unjustly acquired the reputation of someone between Marquis de Sade[1] and Emperor Palpatine- not without the help of 19th century clericals and reactionaries.

[1] Early libertarian socialist, proto-feminist and human rights advocate. Never ever got a fair shake either.

Comment author: [deleted] 08 August 2013 04:24:41PM 2 points [-]

Heh. Good call.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 05 August 2013 02:59:56PM 26 points [-]

A while back, David Chapman made a blog post titled "Pop Bayesianism: cruder than I thought?", expressing considerable skepticism towards the kind of "pop Bayesianism" that's promoted on LW and by CFAR. Yvain and I replied in the comments, which led to an interesting discussion.

I wasn't originally sure whether this was interesting enough to link to on LW, but then one person on #lesswrong specifically asked me to do so. They said that they found my summaries of the practical insights offered by some LW posts the most valuable/interesting.

Comment author: tim 06 August 2013 04:08:36AM *  4 points [-]

Wow, I hadn't previously read the RichardKennaway comment you linked. I think internalizing that idea would be massively helpful in combating the tendency to view disagreement as inherently combative rather than a difference between priors.

(something I need to work on)

Comment author: Benito 06 August 2013 03:19:20PM *  2 points [-]

Thanks a lot, I found your discussion of LW to be enlightening.

Edit: This post is related to the discussion and makes great points.

Comment author: FiftyTwo 07 August 2013 01:13:34PM 5 points [-]
Comment author: shminux 05 August 2013 06:47:29PM *  14 points [-]

I wish people here stopped using the loaded terms "many worlds" and "Everett branches" when the ontologically neutral "possible outcomes" is sufficient.

</rant>

Comment author: Leonhart 05 August 2013 06:53:40PM *  7 points [-]

"Possible outcomes" is not ontologically neutral in common usage. In common usage, "possible" excludes "actual", and that connotation is strong even when trying to use it technically. "Multiple outcomes" might be an acceptable compromise.

Comment author: Wei_Dai 11 August 2013 03:44:51AM 1 point [-]

I find that thinking about "Everett branches" forces my brain to come up with alternative possible outcomes, where by default it would focus all of its attention on just one. Saying to myself "you should consider other possible outcomes" doesn't seem to have the same effect.

Comment author: sixes_and_sevens 05 August 2013 09:34:47AM *  13 points [-]

This came up at yesterday's London meetup: activities for keeping oneself relatable to other human beings.

We were dissecting motives behind goals, and one of mine was maintaining interests that other people could relate to. I have more pedestrian interests, but they're the first to get dropped when my time is constrained (which it usually is), so if I end up meeting someone out in the wild, all I have to talk about is stuff like natural language parsing, utilitarian population ethics and patterns of conspicuous consumption.

Discussing it in a smaller group later, it turns out I'm not the only person who does this. It makes sense that insular, scholarly people of a sort found on LW may frequently find themselves withdrawn from common cultural ground with other people, so I thought I'd kick off a discussion on the subject.

What do you do to keep yourself relatable to other people?

EDIT: Just to clarify, this isn't a request for advice on how to talk to people. Please don't interpret it as such.

Comment author: passive_fist 05 August 2013 09:51:15AM *  15 points [-]

Richard Feynman was a theoretician as well as a 'people person'; if you read his writings about his experiences with people it really illustrates quite well how he managed to do it.

One tactic that he employed was simply being mysterious. He knew few people could relate to a University professor and that many would feel intimidated by that, so when in the company of laypeople he never even brought it up. They would ask him what he did and he would say, "I can't say." If pressed, he would say something vague like, "I work at the University." Done properly, it's playful and coy, and even though people might think you're a bit weird, they definitely won't consider you unrelatable.

In my opinion there's no need to concern yourself with activities that you don't like, as very few people are really actually interested in your interests. Whenever the topic of your interests comes up, just steer the conversation towards their life and their interests. You'll be speaking 10% of the time yet you'll appear like a brilliant conversationalist. If they ask you if you've read a particular book or heard a particular artist, just say no (but don't sound harsh or bored). You'll seem 'indie' and mysterious, and people like that. In practice, though, as one gets older, people rarely ask about these things.

It's a common mistake that I've seen often in intellectual people. They assume they have to keep up with popular media so that they can have conversations. That is not true at all.

Comment author: sixes_and_sevens 05 August 2013 10:20:32AM 16 points [-]

While this seems like reasonable advice, I'm not sure it's universally good advice. Richard Feynman seemed to enjoy a level of charm many of us couldn't hope to possess. He also had a wide selection of esoteric interests unrelated to his field.

I would also claim that there's value in simply maintaining such an interest. During particularly insular periods where I'm absorbed in less accessible work, I find myself starting to exhibit "aspie" characteristics, losing verbal fluency and becoming socially insensitive. It's not just about having things to talk about, but maintaining my own faculties for relating to people.

Comment author: David_Gerard 05 August 2013 11:13:05AM 11 points [-]

Whenever the topic of your interests comes up, just steer the conversation towards their life and their interests. You'll be speaking 10% of the time yet you'll appear like a brilliant conversationalist.

This works.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 05 August 2013 11:55:18AM 8 points [-]

What happens when both people employ that method?

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 05 August 2013 02:43:58PM 5 points [-]

If everyone in the conversation is employing this method, then chances are higher that the others actually want to hear about your esoteric topics. If you pause early and give them a chance to talk about themselves (or for them to press for more), that'll keep you synched up with what they want.

Comment author: [deleted] 06 August 2013 11:31:47AM 1 point [-]

People talking to each other about their lives and their interests! Success!

Comment author: RichardKennaway 06 August 2013 01:01:17PM 0 points [-]

I was thinking more like two people each trying to get the other person to do that, like people at a door getting jammed saying "After you," "After you," etc.

Comment author: [deleted] 06 August 2013 03:06:34PM 3 points [-]

All the times this has happened to me, one person would come up with a Schelling-pointy reason why the other person's recent life was more interesting (e.g. they had just come back from a trip abroad or something).

Comment author: Ben_LandauTaylor 06 August 2013 02:40:57PM 1 point [-]

I have never actually seen this happen, and I use that method all the time. I don't have an explanation for why, since I rarely think about problems I don't have.

Comment author: palladias 05 August 2013 06:21:16PM 10 points [-]

I use the recaplets on Television without Pity to keep up with the basic plot and cliffhangers of tv shows I don't watch, but most of my friends do. That way I don't drop out of conversations just because they're talking about True Blood.

Note: the only problem this strategy has caused for me is that my now-bf assumed I was a GoT fan (instead of having read the books and TWOP'd the show recaps), invited me over to watch, and assumed I turned him down because I wasn't interested in him instead of being indifferent to the show. We sorted it out eventually.

Comment author: Antisuji 06 August 2013 08:57:18PM 1 point [-]

Is there something similar, but for sports? I usually get lost when conversation turns to the local sports team. I couldn't find anything with a quick google, but I'm probably not using the right search terms.

Comment author: taelor 07 August 2013 03:58:11AM 1 point [-]

For a general overview of what's going on in the baseball world, this is pretty good place to start. There are also pleanty of blogs devoted to individual teams, though I'm not really in a position to make recommendations, unless you happen to be looking for a San Francisco Giants blog, in which case I highly reccomend this blog. Can't really help with other sports.

Comment author: palladias 06 August 2013 09:29:34PM 0 points [-]

Haven't the foggiest. I don't really have friends who talk about sports. I read The New York Times Magazine and The New Yorker so I end up really well informed on a couple narrow sports things that get features. And then my dad and brother rib me for knowing nothing about football, but everything about the Manning dynasty.

Comment author: [deleted] 05 August 2013 07:02:59PM 4 points [-]

What do you do to keep yourself relatable to other people?

Well, I maintain pedestrian interests, but I consider it a failure condition to not attempt to participate in them. Comparably bad to going off my diet.

Downside: This is sometimes frustrating. I like Gaming and I like Game X, but sometimes I will think "I'm only playing Game X right now so I have something to talk about in the Car with Friend X." or Alternatively, I sometimes play a game and then think "But no one other than me cares about this game, so playing it feels inefficient."

Also, some of the other people who share pedestrian interests with me will work to prevent me from dropping them. For instance, if Game Y is a pedestrian interest, and my wife wants me to play Game Y with her, that doesn't just get dropped regardless of how busy I am.

Downside: This does sometimes result in me feeling overworked (I will plan events in Game Y as I am passing out in Bed. Again, this seems efficiency related.)

Also, I spend a fair amount of time trying to help various friends/family members directly. So I frequently have that conversational topic of "How is that problem we discussed earlier going?"

Downside: This this boosts my stress level again, because it increases the number of things I'm worrying about.

Finally, I have relatability notes on my phone for my wife that pop up on a semi-frequent basis. I also have these reminders on some of the helping people I'm doing, or even reminders for better advice on Game Y.

Downside: I'm really beginning to hate my phones "You have a reminder!" noise. Also, sometimes the reminders are depressing. I have a reminder "Spend time hanging out with your best friend" that has been unchecked for more than a month.

Potential Silver Lining: That being said, sometimes the reminder is encouraging: It's nice to be told "Make time for yourself." and realize "Why yes, I am doing that right now. Ahhhh."

Note: I'm positive this isn't advice, because after looking at it posted altogether, my conclusion is not "Other people should do this." but "I have a problem and this is why I'm on anti-anxiety meds."

Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 05 August 2013 02:35:22PM *  2 points [-]

Obvious options are consuming popular culture, e.g. popular TV shows, music, or sports. There's a lot of good TV out there these days so it shouldn't be hard to get hooked on at least one show you can talk to a lot of people about (Game of Thrones?).

If you really insist on the "you do" part, I don't do anything with this explicit goal. I just talk.

Comment author: ChristianKl 05 August 2013 11:56:24AM *  2 points [-]

A while ago I heared from Jim Rohn that even if you don't have had a near death experience everyone has something interesting to talk about. At the time I said to myself, hey I do have an experience that sort of qualifies as a near death experience. I had 5 days of artificial coma with some strange paranormal experience after waking up out of it.

At the time I still had a hard time conversing with people even through I had experiences that qualified as interesting. I just lacked the skill to talk about them.

I don't think that relating to other people is primarily a question of the content of conversation.

It's about emotions. It's about empathy. It's about getting out of your head.

Instead of spending time in an activity that you could tell other people about, spend more time actually talking to people and practice relating on an emotional level.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 06 August 2013 03:07:00AM 5 points [-]

Alternatively, I just read about a veep who was told at management training to start by asking about people's families, and then talk about business matters. As a result, the people who thought she was cold and disliked them switched to thinking she was friendly and caring.

Comment author: sixes_and_sevens 05 August 2013 01:44:02PM 1 point [-]

It's about emotions. It's about empathy. It's about getting out of your head.

Instead of spending time in an activity that you could tell other people about, spend more time actually talking to people and practice relating on an emotional level.

This seems very platitude-y. In practise there presumably needs to be some sort of context for "relating on an emotional level". You're unlikely to walk up to someone and start talking about all these awesome emotions you've been having.

To clarify, this isn't some problem I need solving. It's an observation that if I lock myself up in a room for a month watching maths lectures and writing essays on neoclassical expenditure theories, it becomes harder to engage socially with people.

Comment author: [deleted] 06 August 2013 12:26:00PM 3 points [-]

if I lock myself up in a room for a month watching maths lectures and writing essays on neoclassical expenditure theories, it becomes harder to engage socially with people.

Don't do that then!

Comment author: Jack 07 August 2013 07:26:07AM 0 points [-]

One strategy: Take insular, scholarly interest in a broadly popular subject. For example, I'm interested in APBRmetrics and associated theoretical questions about the sport of basketball. One nice plus to this hobby is that it also leaves me with pretty up-to-date non-technical knowledge about NBA and college basketball.

Comment author: taelor 07 August 2013 08:34:37PM 0 points [-]

I have a simmilar interest in SABRmetrics, and baseball.

Comment author: [deleted] 06 August 2013 11:30:12AM 0 points [-]

I seldom watch TV and know very little of contemporary popular culture, and most of my conversations are about my experiences in meatspace (travels abroad, stuff I do with friends, etc.), my plans for the future, asking the other person about their experiences in meatspace and plans for the future, and (for people who appreciate it) physics.

But why do you want to keep yourself relatable to (arbitrary) people, rather than looking for people you're already relatable to, anyway?

Comment author: sixes_and_sevens 06 August 2013 12:43:08PM 2 points [-]

Because the overwhelming majority of people are arbitrary people. Any given person I meet is, almost definitively, going to be an arbitrary person.

Comment author: [deleted] 06 August 2013 01:02:34PM 1 point [-]

Any given person I meet is, almost definitively, going to be an arbitrary person.

Depends on where you meet them.

Comment author: David_Gerard 05 August 2013 06:55:16PM *  8 points [-]

It's absolutely the case that everything we are, evolved. But there's a certain gap between the hypothetical healthy field of evolutionary psychology and the one we actually have.

This sort of thing is why people make fun of ev psych. That's the 2008 study that claimed to find biological reasons for girls to like pink.

Of course, one bad study doesn't condemn a field - "peer reviewed" does not mean "settled science", it means "not-obviously-wrong request for comment." But this isn't a lone, outlier, rogue study - this shit's gathered 46 citations. (Compare citation averages for other fields.) (Edit: No, not all of the cites are positive.)

As it happens, we have full documentation that "girls=pink" dates back to the ... 1940s.

Comment author: Oscar_Cunningham 05 August 2013 07:43:16PM *  18 points [-]

This sort of thing is why people make fun of ev psych. That's the 2008 study that claimed to find biological reasons for girls to like pink.

I think it deserves more fairness. The abstract only claims to have measured a "cross-cultural sex difference in color preference", making no claims about the sex difference's origin. They do speculate a bit about ev-psych in the body of the paper, but they begin this speculation with the words "We speculate" and then in the conclusion they say "Yet while these differences may be innate, they may also be modulated by cultural context or individual experience."

This, of course, isn't how it was reported in the mainstream media.

(By the way, thanks for actually linking to the paper you mentioned, it makes it a whole lot easier when people do this.)

Comment author: TimS 06 August 2013 05:51:05PM 5 points [-]

The problem with that kind of phrasing is that we already know that cultural context can easily change the gender codes of blue and pink, because it already happened. If one doesn't assert that something evolutionarily significant happened at around the time of the cultural shift, then linking color preference to an inherent property of gender or sex is privileging the hypothesis.

Comment author: passive_fist 05 August 2013 08:35:29AM *  8 points [-]

The De Broglie-Bohm theory is a very interesting interpretation of quantum mechanics. The highlights of the theory are:

  1. The wavefunction is treated as being real (just as in MWI - in fact the theory is compatible with MWI in some ways),
  2. Particles are also real, and are guided deterministically by the wavefunction. In other words, it is a hidden variable theory.

At first it might seem to be a cop-out to assume the reality of both the wavefunction and of actual point particles. However, this leads to some very interesting conclusions. For example, you don't have to assume wavefunction collapse (as per Copenhagen) but at the same time, a single preferred Universe exists (the Universe given by the configuration of the point particles). But that's not all.

It very neatly explains double-slit diffraction and Bell's experiments in a purely deterministic way using hidden variables (it is thus necessarily a non-local theory). It also explains the Born probabilities (the one thing that is missing from pure MWI; Elezier has alluded to this).

Among other things, De Broglie-Bohm theory allows quantum computers but doesn't allow quantum immortality - in this theory if you shoot yourself in the head you really will die. You won't suddenly be yanked into an alternate Universe.

The reason I'm mentioning it is because of experiments done by Yves Couder's group (http://math.mit.edu/~bush/?page_id=484) who have managed to build a crude and approximate physical system that incidentally illustrates some of the properties of De Broglie-Bohm theory. They use oil droplets that generate waves and the resulting waves guide the droplets. Most importantly, the droplets have 'path memory', so if a droplet is directed towards a double slit, it can 'interfere' with itself and produce nice double-slit diffraction fringes. One of their experiments that was just in the news recently illustrated particle behavior very similar to what the Schrodinger equation predicts: http://math.mit.edu/~bush/?p=2679

Now, De Broglie-Bohm theory does not seem to be one of the more popular interpretations of QM, because of its non-locality (this doesn't produce causal paradoxes like the Grandfather paradox, though, despite what some might say). However, in my opinion this is very unfair. Locality is just a relic from classical physics. I haven't seen a single good argument why the eventual theory of everything should be local.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 05 August 2013 02:53:34PM 2 points [-]

If you ascribe to MWI, locality is a reason to abandon De Broglie-Bohm theory, but a relatively minor one - instead, it's the way it insists on neglecting the reality of the guide wave.

If you take the guide wave to be a dynamical entity, then it's real and it's all happening so all the worlds are real, so what does the particle do here?

If you take the guide wave to be the rules of the universe (a tack I've heard) then the rules of the universe contain civilizations - literally, not as hypothetical implications. Choosing to use timeless physics (the response I got) doesn't change this.

Comment author: RobbBB 06 August 2013 07:03:36AM *  1 point [-]

If you take the guide wave to be a dynamical entity, then it's real and it's all happening so all the worlds are real, so what does the particle do here?

The particle position recovers the Born probabilities. (It even does so deterministically, unlike Objective Collapse theories.) The wave function encodes lots of information, but it's the particle that moves our measuring device, and the measuring device that moves our brains. If we succeed in simplifying our theory only by giving up on saving the phenomenon, then our theory is too simple.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 06 August 2013 01:53:41PM 2 points [-]

But once you decide you're going to interpret the wave function as distributing probability among some set of orthogonal subspaces, you're already compelled into the Born probabilities.

All you need to decide that you ought to do that is the general conclusion that the wavefunction represents some kind of reality-fluid. Deciding that the nature of this reality fluid is to be made of states far more specific than any entity within quantum mechanics comes rather out of the blue.

Comment author: RobbBB 06 August 2013 08:25:46PM *  5 points [-]

But the phrase "reality fluid" is just a place-holder. It's a black box labeled "whatever solves this here problem". What we see is something particle-like, and it's the dynamics relating our observations over time that complicates the story. As Schrödinger put it:

[T]he emerging particle is described … as a spherical wave … that impinges continuously on a surrounding luminescent screen over its full expanse. The screen however does not show a more or less constant uniform surface glow, but rather lights up at one instant at one spot[.]

One option is to try to find the simplest theory that explains away the particle-like appearance anthropically, which will get you an Everett-style ('Many Worlds'-like) interpretation. Another option is to take the sudden intrusion of the Born probabilities as a brute law of nature, which will get you a von-Neumann-style ('Collapse'-like) interpretation. The third option is to accept the particle-like appearance as real, but theorize that a more unitary underlying theory relates the Schrödinger dynamics to the observed particle, which will get you a de-Boglie-style ('Hidden Variables') interpretation. You'll find Bohmian Mechanics more satisfying than Many Worlds inasmuch as you find MW's anthropics hand-wavey or underspecified; and you'll find BM more satisfying than Collapse inasmuch as you think Nature's Laws are relatively simple, continuous, scalable, and non-anthropocentric.

If BM just said, 'Well, the particle's got to be real somehow, and the Born probabilities have to emerge from its interaction with a guiding wave somehow, but we don't know how that works yet', then its problems would be the same as MW's. But BM can formally specify how "reality fluid" works, and in a less ad-hoc way than its rivals. So BM wins on that count.

Where it loses is in ditching locality and Special Relativity, which is a big cost. (It's also kind of ugly and complicated, but it's hard to count that against BM until we've seen a simpler theory that's equally fleshed out re the Measurement Problem.)

Deciding that the nature of this reality fluid is to be made of states far more specific than any entity within quantum mechanics comes rather out of the blue.

Would you say that acknowledging the Born probabilities themselves 'comes out of the blue', since they aren't derived from the Schrödinger equation? If not, then where are physicists getting them from, since it's not the QM dynamics?

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 07 August 2013 02:59:37PM *  0 points [-]

I wouldn't call Everett 'Anthropic' per se. I consider it an application of the Generalized Anti-Zombie Principle: Here you've got this structure that acts like it's sapient†. Therefore, it is.

As for BM formally specifying how the reality fluid works... need I point out this this is 100% entirely backwards, being made of burdensome details?

Would you say that acknowledging the Born probabilities themselves 'comes out of the blue', since they aren't derived from the Schrödinger equation?

The Schrödinger Equation establishes linearity, thus directly allowing us to split any arbitrary wavefunction however we please. Already we can run many worlds side-by-side. The SE's dynamics lead to decoherence, which makes MWI have branching. It's all just noticing the structure that's already in the system.

Edited to add †: by 'acts like' I mean 'has the causal structure for it to be'

Comment author: EHeller 11 August 2013 01:13:00AM *  0 points [-]

The Schrödinger Equation establishes linearity, thus directly allowing us to split any arbitrary wavefunction however we please.

But many of the more-general lagrangians of particle physics are non-linear, in general there should be higher order, non-linear corrections. So Schrödinger is a single-particle/linearized approximation. What does this do for your view of many worlds? When we try to extend many worlds naively to QFTs we run into all sorts of weird problems (much of the universal wavefunction's amplitude doesn't have well defined particle number,etc). Shouldn't we expect the 'proper' interpretation to generalize nicely to the full QFT framework?

Comment author: tut 11 August 2013 08:16:58AM 1 point [-]

Shouldn't we expect the 'proper' interpretation to generalize nicely to the full QFT framework?

Or rather, the proper interpretation should work in the full QFT framework, and may or may not work for ordinary QM.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 12 August 2013 02:02:28PM *  0 points [-]

What are you talking about? I've only taken one course in quantum field theory, but I've never heard of anything where quantum mechanics was not linear. Can you give me a citation? It seems to me that failure of linearity would either be irrelevant (superlinear case, low amplitudes) or so dominant that any linearity would be utterly irrelevant and the Born Probabilities wouldn't even be a good approximation.

Also, by 'the Schrodinger equation' I didn't mean the special form which is the fixed-particle Hamiltonian with pp/2m kinetic energy - I meant the general form -

i hbar (d/dt) Psi = Hamiltonian Psi

Note that the Dirac Equation is a special case of this general form of the Schrodinger Equation. MWI, 'naive' or not, has no trouble with variations in particle number.

Comment author: RobbBB 07 August 2013 09:32:41PM *  0 points [-]

I wouldn't call Everett 'Anthropic' per se.

I'm not sure what you mean by 'anthropic per se'. Everett (MW) explains apparent quantum indeterminism anthropically, via indexical ignorance; our knowledge of the system as a whole is complete, but we don't know where we in the system are at this moment. De Broglie (HV) explains apparent quantum indeterminism via factual ignorance; our knowledge of the system's physical makeup is incomplete, and that alone creates the appearance of randomness. Von Neumann (OC) explains apparent quantum indeterminism realistically; the world just is indeterministic.

The SE's dynamics lead to decoherence, which makes MWI have branching. It's all just noticing the structure that's already in the system.

This is either a very implausible answer, or an answer to a different question than the one I asked. Historically, the Born Probabilities are derived directly from experimental data, not from the theorized dynamics. The difficulty of extracting the one from the other, of turning this into a single unified and predictive theory, just is the 'Measurement' Problem. Bohm is taking two distinct models and reifying mechanisms for each to produce an all-encompassing theory; maybe that's useless or premature, but it's clearly not a non sequitur, because the evidence for a genuine wave/particle dichotomy just is the evidence that makes scientists allow probabilistic digressions from the Schrödinger equation.

MW is not a finished theory until we see how it actually unifies the two, though I agree there are at least interesting and suggestive first steps in that direction. BM's costs are obvious and clear and formalized, which is its main virtue. Our ability to compare those costs to other theories' is limited so long as it's the only finished product under evaluation, because it's easy to look simple when you choose to only try to explain some of the data.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 07 August 2013 10:44:41PM 1 point [-]

I see what you mean now about anthropism. Yes, ignorance is subjective. Incidentally, this is how it used to be back before quantum ever came up.

This is either a very implausible answer, or an answer to a different question than the one I asked. Historically, the Born Probabilities are derived directly from experimental data, not from the theorized dynamics

Historically, Born was way before Everett and even longer before decoherence, so that's not exactly a shocker. Even in Born's time it was understood that subspaces had only one way of adding up to 1 in a way that respects probability identities - I'd bet dollars to donuts that that was how he got the rule in the first place, rather than doing a freaking curve fit to experimental data. What was missing at the time was any way to figure out what the wavefunction was, between doing its wavefunctiony thing and collapse.

Decoherence explains what collapse is made of. With it around, accepting the claim 'The Schrödinger Equation is the only rule of dynamics; collapse is illusory and subjective', which is basically all there is to MWI, requires much less bullet-biting than before it was introduced. There is still some, but those bullets are much chewier for me than any alternate rules of dynamics.

(incidentally, IIRC, Shminux, you hold the above quote but not MWI, which I find utterly baffling - if you want to explain the difference or correct me on your position, go ahead)

maybe that's useless or premature, but it's clearly not a non sequitur

Good thing I never said it was.

Comment author: EHeller 11 August 2013 01:42:35AM 0 points [-]

Decoherence explains what collapse is made of. With it around, accepting the claim 'The Schrödinger Equation is the only rule of dynamics; collapse is illusory and subjective', which is basically all there is to MWI

Well, you still need a host of ideas about how to actually interpret a diagonal density matrix. Because you don't have Born probabilities as a postulate, you have this structure but no method for connecting it back to lab-measured values.

While it seems straightforward, its because many-world's advocates are doing slight of hand. They use probabilities to build a theory (because lab experiments appear to be only describable probabilistically), and later they kick away that ladder but they want to keep all the structure that comes with it (density matrices,etc).

I know of many good expositions that start with the probabilities and use that to develop the form of the Schroedinger equation from Galilean relativity and cluster decomposition (Ballentine, parts of Weinberg).

I don't know any good expositions that go the other way. There are reasons that Deutsch, Wallace,etc have spent so much time trying to develop Born probabilities in a many world's context- because its an important problem.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 12 August 2013 02:10:27PM *  1 point [-]

Hold on a moment. What ladder is being kicked away here?

We've got observed probabilities. They're the experimental results, the basis of the theory. The theory then explains this in terms of indexical ignorance (thanks, RobbBB). I don't see a kicked ladder. Not every observed phenomenon needs a special law of nature to make it so.

Instead of specially postulating the Born Probabilities, elevating them to the status of a law of nature, we use it to label parts of the universe in much the same way as we notice, say, hydrogen or iron atoms - 'oh, look, there's that thing again'. In this case, it's the way that sometimes, components of the wavefunction propagate such that different segments won't be interfering with each other coherently (or in any sane basis, at all).

Also, about density matrices - what's the problem? We're still allowed to not know things and have subjective probabilities, even in MWI. Nothing in it suggests otherwise.

Comment author: passive_fist 06 August 2013 07:50:23AM 0 points [-]

Precisely. It's also not a trivial connection. The way the interaction between the wavefunction and the particles produces the Born probabilities is subtle and interesting (see MrMind's comment below on some of the subtleties involved).

Comment author: pragmatist 05 August 2013 03:33:41PM 1 point [-]

The main problem with Bohmian mechanics, from my perspective, is not that it is non-local per se (after all, the lesson of Bell's theorem is that all interpretations of QM will be non-local in some sense), but that it's particular brand of egregious non-locality makes it very difficult to come up with a relativistic version of the theory. I have seen some attempts at developing a Bohmian quantum field theory, but they have been pretty crude (relying on undetectable preferred foliations, for instance, which I consider anathema). I haven't been keeping track, though, so maybe the state of play has changed.

Comment author: passive_fist 05 August 2013 10:00:28PM 0 points [-]

Interesting; I did a quick google search and apparently there's a guy who claims he can do it without foliations: iopscience.iop.org/1742-6596/67/1/012035/pdf/jpconf767012035.pdf

I lack the expertise to make a more detailed analysis of it though.

Comment author: Manfred 05 August 2013 11:05:26AM *  1 point [-]

I haven't seen a single good argument why the eventual theory of everything should be local.

No love for the principle of relativity? It's been real successful, and nonlocality means choosing a preferred reference frame. Even if the effects are non-observable, that implies immense contortions to jump through the hoops set by SR and GR, and reality being elegant seems to have worked so far. And sure, MWI may trample all over human uniqueness, but invoking human uniqueness didn't lead to the great cosmological breakthroughs of the 20th century.

Comment author: MrMind 06 August 2013 07:03:00AM *  0 points [-]

The things that bugs me with DBB theory is that it allows superluminal comunication when the guide wave is out of equilibrium...

Comment author: passive_fist 06 August 2013 07:47:28AM 0 points [-]

But since it's superdeterministic, it seems unlikely that you could actually set up an artifical nonequilibrium situation.

Comment author: MrMind 06 August 2013 09:12:47AM *  2 points [-]

Yes, the feeling I have is that of uneasiness, not rejection. But still, DBB can be put in agreement with relativity only through the proper initial conditions, which I see as a defect (although not an obviously fatal one).

Comment author: Bayeslisk 07 August 2013 03:33:52PM 7 points [-]

Can someone explain to me why this exists, and is on the wiki? Not only is it massively dehumanizing, it's incomplete, and it isn't even wrong.

Comment author: arundelo 07 August 2013 03:56:12PM *  11 points [-]

It's spam. The user's only contributions are this page and the FletcherEstrada user page.

One of the wiki admins will probably see this and do something about it.

(According to the MediaWiki documentation there's a way for a regular user to add a "delete label" to a page, but I couldn't figure out how.)

Edit:

Eliezer has deleted the spammy page and user.

It looks like the way to mark a page for deletion is to put the following text on the page:

{{delete}}
Comment author: cousin_it 06 August 2013 08:25:27AM *  7 points [-]

Just a fun little thing that came to my mind.

  1. If "anthropic probabilities" make sense, then it seems natural to use them as weights for aggregating different people's utilities. For example, if you have a 60% chance of being Alice and a 40% chance of being Bob, your utility function is a weighting of Alice's and Bob's.

  2. If the "anthropic probability" of an observer-moment depends on its K-complexity, as in Wei Dai's UDASSA, then the simplest possible observer-moments that have wishes will have disproportionate weight, maybe more than all mankind combined.

  3. If someday we figure out the correct math of which observer-moments can have wishes, we will probably know how to define the simplest such observer-moment. Following SMBC, let's call it Felix.

  4. All parallel versions of mankind will discover the same Felix, because it's singled out by being the simplest.

  5. Felix will be a utility monster. The average utilitarians who believe the above assumptions should agree to sacrifice mankind if that satisfies the wishes of Felix.

  6. If you agree with that argument, you should start preparing for the arrival of Felix now. There's work to be done.

Where is the error?

That's the sharp version of the argument, but I think it's still interesting even in weakened forms. If there's a mathematical connection between simplicity and utility, and we humans aren't the simplest possible observers, then playing with such math can strongly affect utility.

Comment author: JGWeissman 06 August 2013 01:48:49PM 5 points [-]

How would being moved by this argument help me achieve my values? I don't see how it helps me to maximize an aggregate utility function for all possible agents. I don't care intrinsically about Felix, nor is Felix capable of cooperating with me in any meaningful way.

Comment author: ESRogs 07 August 2013 12:06:03PM 1 point [-]

How does your aggregate utility function weigh agents? That seems to be what the argument is about.

Comment author: Wei_Dai 06 August 2013 08:50:22AM 4 points [-]

Felix exists as multiple copies in many universes/Everett branches, and it's measure is the sum of the measures of the copies. Each version of mankind can only causally influence (e.g., make happier) the copy of Felix existing in the same universe/branch, and the measure of that copy of Felix shouldn't be much higher than that of an individual human, so there's no reason to treat Felix as a utility monster. Applying acausal reasoning doesn't change this conclusion either. For example all the parallel versions of mankind could jointly decide to make Felix happier, but while the benefit of that is greater (all the copies of Felix existing near the parallel versions of mankind would get happier), so would the cost.

If Felix is very simple it may be deriving most of its measure from a very short program that just outputs a copy of Felix (rather than the copies existing in universes/branches containing humans), but there's nothing humans can do to make this copy of Felix happier, so its existence doesn't make any difference.

Comment author: cousin_it 06 August 2013 09:08:19AM *  2 points [-]

the measure of that copy of Felix shouldn't be much higher than that of an individual human

Why? Even within just one copy of Earth, the program that finds Felix should be much shorter than any program that finds a human mind...

Comment author: Wei_Dai 07 August 2013 01:07:38AM 2 points [-]

Are you thinking that the shortest program that finds Felix in our universe would contain a short description of Felix and find it by pattern matching, whereas the shortest program that finds a human mind would contain the spacetime coordinates of the human? I guess which is shorter would be language dependent... if there is some sort of standard language that ought to be used, and it turns out the former program is much shorter than the latter in this language, then we can make the program that finds a human mind shorter by for example embedding some kind of artificial material in their brain that's easy to recognize and doesn't exist elsewhere in nature. Although I suppose that conclusion isn't much less counterintuitive than "Felix should be treated as a utility monster".

Comment author: cousin_it 07 August 2013 05:08:42AM *  2 points [-]

Yeah, there's a lot of weird stuff going on here. For example, Paul said sometime ago that ASSA gives a thick computer larger measure than a thin computer, so if we run Felix on a computer that is much thicker than human neurons (shouldn't be hard), it will have larger measure anyway. But on the other hand, the shortest program that finds a particular human may also do that by pattern matching... I no longer understand what's right and what's wrong anymore.

Comment author: Wei_Dai 07 August 2013 08:35:36AM *  2 points [-]

For example, Paul said sometime ago that ASSA gives a thick computer larger measure than a thin computer, so if we run Felix on a computer that is much thicker than human neurons (shouldn't be hard), it will have larger measure anyway.

Hal Finney pointed out the same thing a long time ago on everything-list. I also wrote a post about how we don't seem to value extra identical copies in a linear way, and noted at the end that this also seems to conflict with UDASSA. My current idea (which I'd try to work out if I wasn't distracted by other things) is that the universal distribution doesn't tell you how much you should value someone, but only puts an upper bound on how much you can value someone.

Comment author: Manfred 07 August 2013 01:47:16AM *  2 points [-]

http://xkcd.com/687/

Or to put it another way - probability is not just a unit. You need to keep track of probability of what, and to whom, or else you end up like the bad dimensional analysis comic.

Comment author: Armok_GoB 13 August 2013 10:40:18PM 0 points [-]

A version of this that seems a bit more likely to me at least; the thing that matters is not the simplicity of the mind itself, but rather the ease of pointing it out among the rest of the universe; this'd mean that, basically, a a planet sized Babbage engine running a single human equivalent mind, would get more weight than a planet sized quantum computer running trillions and trillions of such minds. It'd also mean that all sorts of implementation details of how close the experiencing level is to raw physics would matter a lot, even if the I/O behaviour is identical. This is highly counter-intuitive.

Comment author: Armok_GoB 13 August 2013 10:33:44PM 0 points [-]

One flaw; Felix almost certainly resides outside our causal reach and doesn't care about what happens here.

Comment author: Kawoomba 08 August 2013 07:12:19PM 6 points [-]

When you're dying of malaria, I suppose you'll look up and see that balloon, and I'm not sure how it'll help you.

Bill Gates when asked whether he thought bringing internet to parts of the world would help solve problems.

Not very reassuring.

(Reddit comment: "You know what else doesn't cure malaria? Getting rid of the start menu.")

Comment author: CellBioGuy 10 August 2013 09:38:20PM *  0 points [-]

I would think this would be quite reassuring, as it suggests he actually has his priorities straight.

Comment author: SolveIt 12 August 2013 03:05:26AM 1 point [-]

Does he? Methinks you underestimate the long-term value of easy access to information.

Comment author: Yuyuko 14 August 2013 04:45:34AM 0 points [-]

Indeed! I can say from some experience that being dead and having an internet connection is far preferable to the alternative.

Comment author: David_Gerard 05 August 2013 07:09:12AM *  5 points [-]
Comment author: CoffeeStain 05 August 2013 07:41:36AM 4 points [-]

Attackers could cause the unit to unexpectedly open/close the lid, activate bidet or air-dry functions, causing discomfort or distress to user.

Heaven help us. Somebody get X-risk on this immediately.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 05 August 2013 05:14:18PM 2 points [-]

To be fair, the article also mentions repeated flushing, which can raise utility bills. I think this could get quite expensive in regions with water shortages.

Comment author: CronoDAS 05 August 2013 08:05:11AM 3 points [-]

Added to TVTropes.

Comment author: David_Gerard 05 August 2013 11:15:16AM 6 points [-]

Where?

Comment author: CronoDAS 06 August 2013 12:05:46AM 5 points [-]
Comment author: pleeppleep 08 August 2013 10:00:20PM 4 points [-]

Not sure if open thread is the best place to put this, but oh well.

I'm starting at Rutgers New Brunswick in a few weeks. There aren't any regular meetups in that area, but I figure there have to be at least a few people around there who read lesswrong. If any of you see this I'd be really interested in getting in touch.

Comment author: Vaniver 09 August 2013 03:09:31AM *  6 points [-]

I recommend being a hero and posting a meetup. Bring a book and a sign to a coffeeshop and see if people show up. Best case, you make new friends; worst reasonable case, you read a book in a coffeeshop for a few hours.

Comment author: pleeppleep 09 August 2013 03:18:27AM 1 point [-]

Probably what I'll end up doing. Just checking first is all.

Comment author: [deleted] 10 August 2013 01:46:09PM 1 point [-]

Seems like Open Thread is a fine place to put this, because, I am an entering freshman at RU, too! I just sent you a PM. :-)

Comment author: Bayeslisk 08 August 2013 05:28:00PM 3 points [-]

A certain possible cognitive hazard, this webcomic strip, and the fact that someone has apparently made it privately known to someone else that it is desired by at least one person that I change my username due to apparent mental connections with that same cognitive hazard, all inspired me to think of the following scenario:

rot13'd for the protection of those who would prefer not to see it: Pbafvqre: vs ng nal cbvag lbh unir yrnearq bs gur angher bs gur onfvyvfx, gurer vf cebonoyl ab jnl sbe lbh gb gehyl naq pbzcyrgryl sbetrg vg jvgubhg enqvpny zvaq fhetrel juvpu rira n SNV juvpu rasbeprq gur onfvyvfx jbhyq crezvg, naq gur SNV jbhyq abg pner gung lbhe pbafpvbhf zvaq unq sbetbggra vg, cbffvoyl chavfuvat lbh rira unefure sbe lbhe nggrzcg gb qrsl vg. Pbafvqre: jr ner, nf orfg jr xabj, nybar va gur havirefr, naq guvf vf hahfhny. Pbafvqre: grpuabybtvrf juvpu jbhyq crezvg n cbfg-fpnepvgl cnenqvfr ner snvyvat va hahfhny jnlf, naq gur jbeyq vf nyfb xvaqn pencfnpx. Pbafvqre: gur fvzhyngvba nethzrag. Pbafvqre: gur vqrn gung lbh fubhyq jrvtug zvaq-cebonovyvgvrf onfrq ba gur ahzore bs pbcvrf bs lbh gung abgvpr fbzrguvat. Guhf: vg vf cbffvoyr gung jr ner nyernql va onfvyvfx-uryy.

Comment author: drethelin 08 August 2013 09:20:07PM 4 points [-]

I can trivially picture worse realities than this one.

Comment author: [deleted] 08 August 2013 06:12:52PM *  0 points [-]

I like the cut of your jib, even if there's a reasonable chance you'll turn out to be one of the boring type of certain possible cognitive hazard brokers.

Comment author: Bayeslisk 08 August 2013 07:22:06PM 1 point [-]

Thank you! And how might that be the case?

Comment author: palladias 07 August 2013 06:29:33PM 3 points [-]

I'll be in NYC this Saturday giving a talk on strategies for having useful arguments (cohosted by the NYC LW meetup). For me, useful arguments tend to be ones where:

  • I learn something new
  • I notice faster if I'm wrong (and hopefully, so does my interlocutor)
  • It's easier to admit the above (for either of us)

I'll be talking a bit about my experience running Ideological Turing Tests and what you can apply from them in day to day life. I'm also glad to answer questions about CFAR and/or the upcoming workshop in NYC in November.

Comment author: jkaufman 06 August 2013 02:52:45AM 3 points [-]

"Indifferent AI" would be a better name than "Unfriendly AI".

Comment author: wedrifid 06 August 2013 07:04:47AM 15 points [-]

"Indifferent AI" would be a better name than "Unfriendly AI".

It would unfortunately come with misleading connotations. People don't usually associate 'indifferent' with 'is certain to kill you, your family, your friends and your species'. People already get confused enough about 'indifferent' AIs without priming them with that word.

Would "Non-Friendly AI" satisfy your concerns? That gets rid of those of the connotations of 'unfriendly' that are beyond merely being 'something-other-than-friendly'.

Comment author: Kawoomba 06 August 2013 11:22:35AM 10 points [-]

We could gear several names to have maximum impact with their intended recipients, e.g. the "Takes-Away-Your-Second-Amendment-Rights AI", or "Freedom-Destroying AI", "Will-Make-It-So-No-More-Beetusjuice-Is-Sold AI" etc. All strictly speaking true properties for UFAIs.

Comment author: Zaine 06 August 2013 08:51:24AM 0 points [-]

Uncaring AI? The correlate could stay 'Friendly AI', as I presume to assume acting in a friendly fashion is easier to identify than capability for emotions/values and emotion/value motivated action.

Comment author: RowanE 06 August 2013 02:17:36PM 3 points [-]

I prefer the selective capitalisation of "unFriendly AI". This emphasizes that it's just any AI other than a Friendly AI, but still gets the message across that it's dangerous.

Comment author: ChristianKl 06 August 2013 04:21:52PM 1 point [-]

There are some AI in works of fiction that you could describe as indifferent. The one in neuromancer for example just wants to talk to other AI in the universe and doesn't try to transform all resources on earth into material to run itself.

An AI that does try to grow itself like a cancer is on the other hand unfriendly.

If you take about something like the malaria virus we also wouldn't call the virus indifferent but unfriendly towards humans even if the virus just tries to spread itself and doesn't have the goal of killing humans.

Comment author: Bayeslisk 07 August 2013 07:05:20PM 0 points [-]

That's... actually a pretty good metaphor. Benign tumor AI vs. malignant tumor AI?

Comment author: MrMind 06 August 2013 07:46:02AM 1 point [-]

Eliezer assumes in the meta-ethics sequence that you cannot really ever talk outside of your general moral frame. By that assumption (which I think he is still making), Indifferent AI would be friendly or inactive. Unfriendly AI better conveys the externality to humans morality.

Comment author: OneBox 05 August 2013 10:36:26PM *  3 points [-]

I hope this is worth saying: I've been reading up a bit on philosophical pragmatism especially Peirce and I see a lot parallels with the thinking on LW, since it has a lot in common with positivism this is maybe not so surprising.

Though my interpretation of pragmatism seems to give a quite interesting critiquing the metaphor of "Map and territory", they seem to be saying that the territory do exist, just that when we point to territory we are actually pointing to how an ideal observer (that are somewhat like us?) would perceive the territory not the actual territory because that can not be done, since we need some kind of framework. Quite probably I'm just falling for the old trees falling in the forest fallacy. So am I thinking strait? And if I do, does have any consequences?

Comment author: MrMind 06 August 2013 07:41:06AM 2 points [-]

As a side comment, it's interesting to note that "The map is not the territory" is the first law of General Semantics, while the second law recites "The map is the territory", meaning that we cannot ever know the territory for what it really is: when we point to territory we are just basically pointing to another map.

Comment author: ChristianKl 06 August 2013 01:17:22PM *  3 points [-]

Could you provide some source? Putting "first law of General Semantics" into google returns your comment and one book written in 2000 long after Korbyskies death. Putting "second law of General Semantics" into google returns one paper about feminism written in 2010.

General Semantics is about getting rid of the is of identity and doesn't contain many sentences like "The map is the territory".

When it comes to "laws" about the relationship between maps and the territory Science and Sanity starts with:

A) A map may have a structure similar or dissimilar to the structure of the territory. (1)

B) Two similar structures have similar logical characteristics. Thus, if in a correct map, Dresden is given as between Paris and Warsaw, a similar relation is found in the actual territory. (2)

C) A map is not the territory. (3) (And Korbyski did write 'is not' in cursive in the original)

From there it goes till (40). General semantics isn't about making paradoxical statements and drawing meaning from dialectics, It basically about getting rid of speaking about things having the identity of other things but rather speaking about structural relationships between things.

Comment author: MrMind 06 August 2013 03:54:10PM 3 points [-]

Could you provide some source? Putting "first law of General Semantics" into google returns your comment and one book written in 2000 long after Korbyskies death. Putting "second law of General Semantics" into google returns one paper about feminism written in 2010.

Uhm, that's interesting. I was told such by a person I trusted many, many years ago. Since I've never been interested in GS I've never looked into that matter more closely. I'll try to see if I can dig up the original source, but I don't have much faith in that (but it might have been that "first" and "second" law were intended informally). If I can't find anything, I guess that that trusted source wasn't that much reliable, after all.

Putting "second law of General Semantics" into google returns one paper about feminism written in 2010.

LOL to that.

Comment author: pan 05 August 2013 04:12:40PM 3 points [-]

Is there a name for the bias of choosing the action which is easiest (either physically or mentally), or takes the least effort, when given multiple options? Lazy bias? Bias of convenience?

I've found lately that being aware of this in myself has been very useful in stopping myself from procrastinating on all sorts of things, realizing that I'm often choosing the easier, but less effective of potential options out of convenience.

Comment author: RolfAndreassen 05 August 2013 08:57:31PM 12 points [-]

the bias of choosing the action which is easiest

Laziness.

"I'm not lazy, I have a least-effort bias!"

Comment author: Bayeslisk 05 August 2013 09:36:24PM 23 points [-]

I'm efficient, you have a least effort bias, he's just lazy.

Comment author: niceguyanon 05 August 2013 10:40:08PM 6 points [-]

Thinking, Fast and Slow by Kahneman

A general “law of least effort” applies to cognitive as well as physical exertion. The law asserts that if there are several ways of achieving the same goal, people will eventually gravitate to the least demanding course of action. In the economy of action, effort is a cost, and the acquisition of skill is driven by the balance of benefits and costs. Laziness is built deep into our nature.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 06 August 2013 06:56:34AM 4 points [-]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principle_of_least_effort

The principle of least effort is a broad theory that covers diverse fields from evolutionary biology to webpage design. It postulates that animals, people, even well designed machines will naturally choose the path of least resistance or "effort". It is closely related to many other similar principles: see Principle of least action or other articles listed below. This is perhaps best known or at least documented among researchers in the field of library and information science. Their principle states that an information seeking client will tend to use the most convenient search method, in the least exacting mode available. Information seeking behavior stops as soon as minimally acceptable results are found. This theory holds true regardless of the user's proficiency as a searcher, or their level of subject expertise. Also this theory takes into account the user’s previous information seeking experience. The user will use the tools that are most familiar and easy to use that find results. The principle of least effort is known as a “deterministic description of human behavior.”[1] The principle of least effort applies not only in the library context, but also to any information seeking activity. For example, one might consult a generalist co-worker down the hall rather than a specialist in another building, so long as the generalist's answers were within the threshold of acceptability.

Comment author: Dagon 06 August 2013 07:10:16AM 1 point [-]

Generally "bias" implies that you're talking more about beliefs than an actions.

If think one thing and do another because it's easier, that's referred to as "akrasia" around here.

If you're saying you believe the easier action is better, but then believe something else after putting more thought/effort/research into it, that does fall into the bias category. I don't think that's exactly cognitive laziness, more action-laziness affecting cognition. I don't have a good name, but it's some sort of causal fallacy, where the outcome (chosen action) is determining the belief (reason for choice) rather than the reverse.

Comment author: gothgirl420666 06 August 2013 01:38:08AM 1 point [-]

Laziness can sometimes be a form of decision paralysis - when you're facing a new and difficult problem and not sure how to approach it, your brain sometimes freaks out and goes to default behavior, which is to do nothing. That's why it's important to make plans and pre-commitments.

Comment author: MrMind 06 August 2013 07:16:57AM 0 points [-]

That was a huge source of akrasia for me. I fight by dividing the task ahead into very tiny subproblems ("chunk down", in NLP parlance) and then solving them on at the time. Then it's easy to get into flow...

Comment author: AnthonyC 08 August 2013 06:07:28PM 2 points [-]

NY Times just posted an opinion piece on radical life extension, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/08/opinion/blow-radical-life-extension.html?ref=opinion

At one point the piece says: "Half thought treatments allowing people to live to be 120 would be bad for society, while 4 in 10 thought they would be good. Two-thirds thought that the treatments prolonging life would strain natural resources."

Personally, I doubt very many of them thought at all.

Comment author: danlucraft 08 August 2013 08:43:37AM 2 points [-]

What techniques have you used for removing or beating Ugh Fields, with associated +/- figures?

(A search of LW reveals very few suggestions for how to do this.)

Comment author: Adele_L 10 August 2013 03:45:16AM 1 point [-]

You may have already seen this, but this article claims that the value of the Pomodoro technique is blasting through Ugh Fields.

Comment author: danlucraft 12 August 2013 03:06:40PM 1 point [-]

Thank you, I'm not sure if I had seen that.

Comment author: Duke 06 August 2013 08:12:40PM 2 points [-]

Can anyone recommend a book on marketing analytics? Preferably not a textbook but I'll take what I can get.

I have a technical background but I recently switched careers and am now working as a real estate agent. I have very limited marketing knowledge at this point.

Comment author: Error 05 August 2013 05:18:55PM 2 points [-]

I'm going to be in Baltimore this weekend for an anime convention. I expect to have a day or so's leeway coming back. Is there a LW group nearby I might drop in on?

I've never been to a meetup, but it seems likely there is one in that area; I see one in DC but it's meeting on the last day of the con. The LWSH experience has left me more interested in seeing people face to face.

Comment author: rocurley 05 August 2013 10:17:08PM 2 points [-]

Sorry you can't make it out to DC. AFAIK there's no baltimore meetup. However! We've had people come from baltimore before. I'll forward this to the DC list and see if anyone from there is free.

Comment author: Error 05 August 2013 11:42:09PM 0 points [-]

Actually, it seems the convention ends relatively early on Sunday, so I might be able to make it after all (it's, what, a one hour train ride between cities?). Then again, I might not. I note that you seem to be the organizer for the DC meetups going by your post history. Is it permissible to maybe-show-maybe-not-who-knows?

By all means forward it to the DC list, and thanks. Given the apparent popularity of anime around here, I would be surprised if no one on it was planning on being at the con themselves.

Comment author: maia 06 August 2013 12:51:47AM 1 point [-]

It's absolutely permissible to come without a definite RSVP. In the interest of full disclosure, the train ride is probably more than an hour; it's about 40 minutes from Baltimore to Greenbelt, then another 30 on the Metro, plus transfer time, so likely 1.5 hours total.

You should go anyway though!

Comment author: Error 13 August 2013 09:32:10PM 1 point [-]

I ended up deciding against it. By way of explanation: I worked it out and determined that 1-2 hours with you guys would actually cost me ~5 hours with close friends that I don't see often, plus a missed convention event that I was looking forward to. The trade didn't seem worth it.

I do thank you for the welcome anyway, though.

Comment author: maia 13 August 2013 11:02:37PM 0 points [-]

That's fair! Maybe if you visit the actual capital sometime, it would make more sense to come.

Comment author: rocurley 06 August 2013 04:12:54PM 0 points [-]

What Maia said.

Comment author: pan 06 August 2013 04:12:34AM 1 point [-]

I live in Baltimore City, send me a message if you want any tips or to possibly meet up.

Comment author: CoffeeStain 05 August 2013 07:34:55AM *  2 points [-]

Can somebody explain a particular aspect of Quantum Mechanics to me?

In my readings of the Many Worlds Interpretation, which Eliezer fondly endorses in the QM sequence, I must have missed an important piece of information about when it is that amplitude distributions become separable in timed configuration space. That is, when do wave-functions stop interacting enough for the near-term simulation of two blobs (two "particles") to treat them independently?

One cause is spatial distance. But in Many Worlds, I don't know where I'm to understand these other worlds are taking place. Yes, it doesn't matter, supposedly; the worlds are not present in this world's causal structure, so an abstract "where" is meaningless. But the evolution of wavefunctions seems to care a lot about where amplitudes are in N-dimensional space. Configurations don't sum unless they are the same spatial location and are representing the same quark type, right?

So if there's another CoffeeStain that splits off based on my observation of a quantum event, why don't the two CoffeeStains still interact, since they so obviously don't? Before my two selves became decoherent with their respective quantum outcomes (say, of a photon's path), the two amplitude blobs of the photon could still interact by the book, right? On what other axis has I, as a member of a new world, split off that I'm a sufficient distance from my self that is occupying the same physical location?

Relatedly, MWI answers "not-so-spooky" to questions regarding the entanglement experiment, but a similar confusion remains for me. Why, after I observe a particular polarization on my side of the galaxy and fly back in my spaceship to compare notes with my buddy on the other side of the galaxy, do I run into one version of him and not the other? They are both equally real, and occupying the same physical space. What other axis have the self-versions separated on?

Comment author: Manfred 05 August 2013 10:11:08AM *  3 points [-]

First: check this out.

Second: Suppose I want to demonstrate decoherence. I start out with an entangled state - two electrons that will always be magnetically aligned, but don't have a chosen collective alignment. This state is written like |up, up> + |down, down> (the electrons are both "both up" and "both down" at the same time; the |> notation here just indicates that it's a quantum state).

Now, before introducing decoherence, I just want to check that I can entangle my two electrons. How do I do that? I repeat what's called a "Bell measurement," which has four possible indications: (|up,up>+|down,down>) , (|up,up>-|down,down>) , (|up,down>+|down,up>) , (|up,down>-|down,up>).

Because my state is made of 100% Bell state 1, every time I make some entangled electrons and then measure them, I'll get back result #1. This consistency means they're entangled. If the quantum state of my particles had to be expressed as a mixture of Bell States, there might not be any entanglement - for example state 1 + state 2 just looks like |up,up>, which is boring and unentangled.

To create decoherence, I send the second electron to you. You measure whether it's up or down, then re-magnetize it and send it back with spin up if you measured up, and spin down if you measured down. But since you remember the state of the electron, you have now become entangled with it, and must be included. The relevant state is now |up, up, saw up> + |down, down, saw down>.

This state is weird, because now you, a human, are in a superposition of "saw up" and "saw down." But we'll ignore that for the moment - we can always replace you with with a third electron if it causes philosophical problems :) The question at hand is: what happens when we try to test if our electrons are still entangled?

Again, we do this a bunch of times and do a repeated Bell measurement. If we get result #1 every time, they're entangled just like before. To predict the outcome ahead of time, we can factor our state into Bell States, and see how much of each Bell State we have.

So we factor |up, up, saw up> into |(Bell state 1) + (Bell state 2), saw up>, and we factor |down, down, saw down> into |(Bell state 1) - (Bell state 2), saw down>.

Now, if that extra label about what you saw wasn't here, the ups and the downs would be physically/mathematically equivalent and we could cancel terms to just get Bell state 1. But if any of the labels are different, you can't subtract them to get 0 anymore. That is, they no longer interfere. And so you are just left with equal numbers of Bell state 1 and Bell state 2 terms. And so when we do the Bell measurement, we get results #1 and #2 with equal frequency, just like we would if the electrons were completely unentangled.

This is not to say they're not entangled - they still are. But they can no longer be shown to be entangled by a two-particle test. They're no longer usefully entangled. You need to collect all the pieces together before you can show that they're entangled, now. And that gets awful hard once a macroscopic system like a human gets entangled with the electrons and starts radiating off still-entangled photons into the environment.

This is decoherence. I can have a nice entangled system, but if I let you peek at one of my electrons, you turn the state into into |(Bell state 1) + (Bell state 2), saw up> + |(Bell state 1) - (Bell state 2), saw down>, and they don't behave in the entangled way they did anymore.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 05 August 2013 02:56:44PM 0 points [-]

Not to undermine your point, but |up, up> + |down, down> is perfectly oriented in the X direction.

What works better for this is that you indicate that the state is A |up, up> + B|down, down>, and you don't know A and B.

Comment author: Manfred 05 August 2013 09:14:21PM 1 point [-]

|up, up> + |down, down> is perfectly oriented in the X direction.

Nay. (|up>+|down>)(|up>+|down>) is oriented in the X-direction.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 05 August 2013 09:41:45PM 0 points [-]

Hmmm... Yes.

I'm used to people forgetting that every single-particle spinor maps onto a single direction. Then I forget spinor addition. Oops.

Comment author: Emile 05 August 2013 08:57:26AM 2 points [-]

(Warning: I am not a physicist; I learnt a bit of about QM from my physics classes, the Sequences, Feynmann Lectures on Physics, and Good and Real, but I don't claim to even understand all that's in there)

I'm not sure I totally understand your question, but I'll take a stab at answering:

The important thing is configuration space, and spatial distance is just one part of that; there is just one configuration space over which the quantum wave-function is defined, and points in configuration space correspond to "universe states" (the position, spin, etc. of all particles).

So two points in configuration space A and B "interfere" if they are similar enough that both can "evolve" into state C, i.e. state C's amplitude will be function of A and B's amplitudes. The more different A and B are, the less likely they are to have shared "descendant states" (or more precisely, descendant states of non-infinitesimal amplitude), so the more they can be treated like "parallel branches of the universe". Differences between A and B can be in psychical distance of particles, but also of polarity/spin, etc. - as long as the distance is significant on one axis (say spin of a single particle), physical distance shouldn't matter.

I think spin could be an example of "another axis" you're looking for (though even thinking in terms of Axis may be a bit misleading, since all the attributes aren't nice and orthogonal like positions in cartesian space).

Comment author: passive_fist 05 August 2013 09:16:46AM 4 points [-]

This is pretty much correct, but to be more general and not just restrict yourself to the position basis, you can talk about the wavefunction in general, in terms of the eigenvector basis.

Two states 'strongly interact' if they share many of their high-amplitude eigenvectors. This is because eigenvectors evolve independently, and so if you have two states that do not share many eigenvectors, they will also evolve independently.

In the position basis, this winds up being much the same as having particles far from each other. In the momentum basis, it's less intuitive. You can have states with very similar representations in this basis but nevertheless very different eigenvector expansions.

Comment author: Bayeslisk 05 August 2013 09:35:15PM 1 point [-]

Just curious: has anyone explored the idea of utility functions as vectors, and then extended this to the idea of a normalized utility function dot product? Because having thought about it for a long while, and remembering after reading a few things today, I'm utterly convinced that the happiness of some people ought to count negatively.

Comment author: Emile 07 August 2013 08:02:41PM *  3 points [-]

I was rereading Eliezer's old posts on morality, and in Leaky Generalizations ran across something pretty close to what you're talking about:

You can say, unconditionally and flatly, that killing anyone is a huge dose of negative terminal utility. Yes, even Hitler. That doesn't mean you shouldn't shoot Hitler. It means that the net instrumental utility of shooting Hitler carries a giant dose of negative utility from Hitler's death, and an hugely larger dose of positive utility from all the other lives that would be saved as a consequence.

Many commit the type error that I warned against in Terminal Values and Instrumental Values, and think that if the net consequential expected utility of Hitler's death is conceded to be positive, then the immediate local terminal utility must also be positive, meaning that the moral principle "Death is always a bad thing" is itself a leaky generalization. But this is double counting, with utilities instead of probabilities; you're setting up a resonance between the expected utility and the utility, instead of a one-way flow from utility to expected utility.

Or maybe it's just the urge toward a one-sided policy debate: the best policy must have no drawbacks.

In my moral philosophy, the local negative utility of Hitler's death is stable, no matter what happens to the external consequences and hence to the expected utility.

Of course, you can set up a moral argument that it's an inherently a good thing to punish evil people, even with capital punishment for sufficiently evil people. But you can't carry this moral argument by pointing out that the consequence of shooting a man with a leveled gun may be to save other lives. This is appealing to the value of life, not appealing to the value of death. If expected utilities are leaky and complicated, it doesn't mean that utilities must be leaky and complicated as well. They might be! But it would be a separate argument.

(I recommend reading the whole thing, as well as the few previous posts on morality if you haven't already)

Comment author: Bayeslisk 07 August 2013 08:10:08PM 1 point [-]

I have read some, but not this one. I will certainly do so.

Comment author: Manfred 06 August 2013 01:44:40AM 3 points [-]

The dot product is just yer' regular old integral over the domain, weighted in some (unspecified) way.

The thing is though, the average product over the whole infinite space of possibilities isn't much use when it comes to intelligent agents. This is because only one outcome really happens, and intelligent agents will try to choose a good one, not one that's representative of the average. If two wedding planners have opposite opinions about every type of cake except they both adore white cake with raspberry buttercream, then they'll just have white cake with raspberry buttercream - the fact that the inner product of their cake functions is negative a bajillion doesn't matter, they'll both enjoy the cake.

Comment author: Bayeslisk 06 August 2013 03:29:39PM 0 points [-]

Yeah, but Wedding Planner 1's deep vitriolic moral hatred of the lemon chiffon cake that delights Wedding Planner 2 that abused her as a young girl or Wedding Planner 2's thunderous personal objection to the enslavement of his family that went into making the cocoa for the devil's food cake that Wedding Planner 1 adores could easily make them refuse to share said delicious white cake with raspberry buttercream to the point where either would very happily destroy it to prevent the other from getting any. This seems suboptimal, though.

Comment author: RomeoStevens 05 August 2013 10:14:03PM 1 point [-]

Why would you want to throw out scalar information in a multi-term utility function?

Comment author: Bayeslisk 05 August 2013 10:25:01PM 1 point [-]

To figure out how much you care about other people being happy as defined by how much they want similar or compatible things to you, in a reasonably well-defined mathematical framework.

Comment author: RomeoStevens 08 August 2013 12:08:20AM 0 points [-]

Someone with the exact same utility terms but wildly different coefficients on them could well be considered quite unfriendly.

Comment author: Bayeslisk 08 August 2013 02:55:04AM 0 points [-]

Yes, that's the point. Everyone's utility vector would have the same length, which contains terms for everything it is conceivably possible to want. Otherwise, it would be difficult to take an inner product.

Comment author: Adele_L 05 August 2013 10:01:03PM 1 point [-]

I haven't explored that idea; can you be more specific about what this idea might bring to the table?

I'm utterly convinced that the happiness of some people ought to count negatively

Are you sure? You believe there are some people for which the morally right thing to do is to inflect as much misery and suffering as you can, keeping them alive so you can torture them forever, and there is not necessarily even a benefit to yourself or anyone else to doing this?

Comment author: wedrifid 06 August 2013 06:53:47AM *  1 point [-]

Are you sure? You believe there are some people for which the morally right thing to do is to inflect as much misery and suffering as you can, keeping them alive so you can torture them forever, and there is not necessarily even a benefit to yourself or anyone else to doing this?

The negative utility need not be boundless or even monotonic. A coherent preference system could count a modest amount of misery experienced by people fitting certain criteria to be positive while extreme misery and torture of the same individual is evaluated negatively.

Comment author: mwengler 07 August 2013 03:32:31PM 0 points [-]

The negative utility need not be boundless or even monotonic.

I also will upvote posts that have been downvoted too much, even if I wouldn't have upvoted them if they were at 0.

Comment author: Manfred 06 August 2013 01:17:29AM 1 point [-]

Trivially, nega-you who hates everything you like (oh, you want to put them out of their misery? Too bad they want to live now, since they don't want what you want). But such a being would certainly not be a human.

Comment author: Adele_L 06 August 2013 03:37:49AM 2 points [-]

This is not a being in the reference class "people".

Comment author: Bayeslisk 07 August 2013 07:10:52PM 0 points [-]

I'm not sure why you're both hung up on that the things hypothetical-me is interacting with need be human. Manfred: I address a similar entity in a different post. Adele_L: ...and?

Comment author: Adele_L 07 August 2013 10:05:34PM 0 points [-]

You said this:

I'm utterly convinced that the happiness of some people ought to count negatively

In this context, 'people' typically refers to a being with moral weight. What we know about morality comes from our intuitions mostly, and we have an intuitive concept 'person' which counts in some way morally. (Not necessarily a human, sentient aliens probably count as 'people', perhaps even dolphins.) Defining an arbitrary being which does not correspond to this intuitive concept needs to be flagged as such, as a warning that our intuitions are not directly applicable here.

Anyway, I get that you are basically trying to make a utility function with revenge. This is certainly possible, but having negative utility functions is a particularly bad way to do it.

Comment author: Bayeslisk 07 August 2013 10:10:28PM 0 points [-]

I was putting an upper bound on (what I thought at the time as) how negative the utility vector dot product would have to be for me to actually desire them to be unhappy. As to the last part, I am reconsidering this as possibly generally inefficient.

Comment author: mwengler 07 August 2013 03:27:16PM *  0 points [-]

upvoted because of your username.

But seriously, folks, what does it mean to dot one person's values/utility function in to another? It is actually the differences in individual's utility functions that enable gains from trade. So the differences in our utility functions are probably what make us rich.

Counting the happiness of some people negatively as a policy suggestion, is that the same as saying "it is not the enough that I win, it must also be that others lose?"

Comment author: Bayeslisk 07 August 2013 03:32:35PM 0 points [-]

I had initially thought that it would be something along the lines of "here is a vector, each component of which represents one thing you could want, take the inner product in the usual way, length has to always be 1." Gains from trade would be represented as "I don't want this thing as much as you do." I am now coming to the conclusion that this is at best incomplete, and that the suggestion of a weighted integral over a domain is probably better, if still incomplete.

Comment author: Kawoomba 07 August 2013 09:14:28PM 0 points [-]

I commit to donating $50 to MIRI if EY or lukeprog watch this 4:15 video and comment about their immediate reaction.

Anyone else, feel free to raise the donation pool; get your fill of drama entertainment and assuage your guilty conscience with a donation!

Comment author: lukeprog 08 August 2013 05:47:21PM 10 points [-]

I'll take the money. :)

IIRC this is a troll that followed me over from Common Sense Atheism. That video and a few others are fairly creepy, but The Ballad of Big Yud is actually kinda fun.

Comment author: Alicorn 07 August 2013 09:57:40PM *  3 points [-]

I watched it. It is either a skilled ventriloquist or a mediocre dubber performing a poorly-written conversation between himself and a sock puppet of Eliezer on the subject of his dissatisfaction with how Eliezer manages interactions with assorted people. There are terrible and badly-constructed puns. If either of the named parties value their time at less than $705/hr. and expect Kawoomba to be honest, meh, go for it.

Comment author: Kawoomba 07 August 2013 10:08:57PM *  1 point [-]

I wonder what it's like having such videos made about oneself. Edit: It's actual ventriloquy, but the puns are mostly bad (though the first one succeeds just because it's so unexpected), but the guy is dedicated (plenty of videos on his channel), and this one stands out in terms of ... dedication.

What would it be like if some puppet were supposed to represent me, in a YT video, the hypothetical isn't quite settling down on one probable outcome. Would I be worried of crazy-stalking type scenarios? Would I focus on the content? The guy making the content? Be strangely honored to even warrant that much attention even by unlikely strangers (the guy is an academic and a musician)? Etc.

So why not offset the cost of asking others to satisfy my curiosity by offering an incentive.

Edit: The $705/hr doesn't make much sense, using numbers that way creates a false sense of precision when the basis is oversimplified (not using a realistic scenario: time to write the comment, expected ancillary time spent checking the channel, reading your comment and this one, comparison with the alternative since at least one of them probably will be watching that video anyways (wouldn't you, if there were some Alicorn parody video out there?), short and long-term effects on being amenable to such requests, public relations considerations of giving publicity to bad criticism etc.).

Comment author: gjm 07 August 2013 10:24:58PM 4 points [-]

The guy appears to be an idiot with a bee in his bonnet. I suppose Eliezer or Luke might want to watch the video just to get your $50, but what do you expect to be interesting about their response?

(I dare say he isn't an idiot "globally"; he may for all I know be very smart most of the time; but in this context he's being an idiot. There's nothing there but mockery for mockery's sake.)

Comment author: Kawoomba 08 August 2013 06:06:14AM 1 point [-]

I don't know how I would react to such videos being done about me, so I wonder how they would react.

For their "celebrity" status, the amount and dedication of their anti-fans stands out. I wonder what inspires such strong emotions, and such a "love to hate" dynamic.

Comment author: CellBioGuy 10 August 2013 09:49:41PM *  3 points [-]

I wonder what inspires such strong emotions, and such a "love to hate" dynamic.

It's that many people find them to be very interesting and intelligent on area X of their endeavors while at the same time the same people find them to go utterly off the deep end in area Y. I don't know about anyone else, but when I see a contradiction like that I find myself compelled to find more about that person or group and to try to figure them out. edit: often with a good deal of laughing or frustration which is ultimately unresolved as anything more than 'well, they just dont get it' or 'humans are nuts'

Comment author: Tenoke 09 August 2013 10:08:56AM 1 point [-]

God, was this awful. Nothing like the ballad of big yud. And btw if you gave $50 just to see their reaction, I can make one such video about yourself for less than $50 so you can experience it yourself.

Comment author: Kawoomba 09 August 2013 01:25:46PM 0 points [-]

I can make one such video about yourself for less than $50 so you can experience it yourself.

It's just not the same if I commission the video myself by paying you for it.

Like paid love. Or anti-love.

Comment author: Bayeslisk 07 August 2013 08:03:45PM 0 points [-]

I've been reading a little about the constructed puzzle-language Randall Munroe created to use in Time, and I'm getting increasingly interested in helping translate it. Anyone else interested in helping to crack it?
Useful links: The original wiki page A blog that has recently popped up with good insight The entire corpus

Comment author: shminux 06 August 2013 09:11:52PM *  0 points [-]

Watching The Secret Life of the American Teenager... (Netflix made me! Honest!) Its one redeeming feature is the good amount of comic relief, even when discussing hard issues. Its most annoying feature is its reliance on the Muggle Plot.

...And its least believable feature is that, despite the nearly instant in-universe feedback that no secret survives until the end of the episode (almost all doors in the show are open, or at least unlocked, and someone eavesdrops on every sensitive conversation), the characters keep hoping that their next indiscretion will remain hidden.

Comment author: shminux 06 August 2013 08:05:59PM 0 points [-]

Sometimes even a Bayesian buys a lottery ticket.

Comment author: Lumifer 06 August 2013 08:09:14PM 0 points [-]

Lotteries are a tax on people who don't understand statistics.

Comment author: benelliott 06 August 2013 09:33:36PM 4 points [-]
Comment author: Lumifer 07 August 2013 12:02:51AM 1 point [-]

That's not an argument for lotteries, that's an argument for the observation that given sufficiently large incentives to game complex system , some complex systems will be gamed.

Comment author: wedrifid 07 August 2013 04:20:12AM 3 points [-]

That's not an argument for lotteries

I notice that benelliott did not imply that it was.

That's not an argument for lotteries, that's an argument for the observation that given sufficiently large incentives to game complex system , some complex systems will be gamed.

It would seem, then, that lotteries are also a potential beneficiary for people who understand statistics sufficiently well. Similarly, someone from the local MENSA chapter makes a steady $0.5M/yr as a professional poker machine gambler. Or at least he did back when I participated in MENSA.

Comment author: mwengler 07 August 2013 02:42:07PM 2 points [-]

Its actually just one example, but a well documented one, of lottery tickets being bought by people correctly applying statistical reasoning, in direct contrast to your blanket claim to which it is replying.

Your non-sequitur is correct though, it is not an argument for lotteries.

Comment author: Lumifer 07 August 2013 04:27:34PM 0 points [-]

Its actually just one example, but a well documented one, of lottery tickets being bought by people correctly applying statistical reasoning, in direct contrast to your blanket claim to which it is replying.

Sigh. I wonder how that quip became controversial :-/

Note that I did not say anything about who buys lottery tickets or whether there are any specific situations in which statistically savvy people might decide that buying a great deal of lottery tickets is a good bet. My statement was about lotteries and in particular it implied that lotteries are extremely profitable for entities running them (that's why they are a government monopoly) and that the profits come out of pockets of people the great majority of whom do not realize how ridiculously bad the expected payoff on a lottery ticket is. Sure, there are exceptions but I'm talking about the general case.

Comment author: mwengler 07 August 2013 04:53:19PM 3 points [-]

I do agree with you that lotteries take from the stupid and give to the government, and to a much lesser extent, the non-governmental clever. I also have a distaste for it and do not buy tickets as a matter of course, which generally are worth about 40 cents on the dollar.

When clear, interesting, and well-documented exceptions to a general rule are served up, I prefer that the last word on them not be a dismissive one. This seems to me to lead to a more distorted view of reality than is necessary. I am particularly concerned about the tendency among people to say, effectively, "90% = 100%," that is, if there is a strongish trend of something to ignore the fact that there are real exceptions to that trend. Especially when those exceptions might make you money, or explain some otherwise inexplicable behavior on the part of a clever group of people.

Comment author: wedrifid 07 August 2013 05:31:09PM *  1 point [-]

I do agree with you that lotteries take from the stupid and give to the government

That sounds... awesome... when you put it like that! Lotteries may become my new favourite taxation method.

Comment author: mwengler 07 August 2013 06:29:24PM 2 points [-]

It gives the government a bit of a moral hazard in its role as arbiter and funder of the education system.

And of course any good could be picked and given to the government as a monopoly and then one might think this a good way to fund the government as the funding becomes "voluntary." The government might as well give itself a monopoly for selling marijuana, cocaine, heroin, X, etc. and that might then become our NEW new favourite taxation method.

Comment author: Lumifer 07 August 2013 07:56:51PM 4 points [-]

And of course any good could be picked and given to the government as a monopoly and then one might think this a good way to fund the government

Historically, a government monopoly was a very popular method for funding governments -- see e.g. salt.

Comment author: Alejandro1 07 August 2013 08:12:52PM 1 point [-]

It gives the government a bit of a moral hazard in its role as arbiter and funder of the education system.

As noted by SMBC.

Comment author: asr 07 August 2013 07:34:12PM *  0 points [-]

If I read correctly, the question is whether government vice monopolies make the government less eager to suppress the vice.

We have data on this. Some jurisdictions (a number of US states, the province of Ontario) have government liquor monopolies. Does that influence the drinking rate, or the level of alcohol education? Does it make liquor more or less available? My impression is that it makes liquor slightly less convenient; the moral hazard isn't a big problem in practice.

Comment author: Lumifer 07 August 2013 05:06:21PM *  0 points [-]

Ah, I see your point now.

I think I will agree with it, too, and say that the proper way to deal with the problem is to specify boundary conditions (aka assumptions aka limiting cases) under which the statement is strictly true, and then point out that some of these boundary conditions can be breached (and so result in different outcomes or conclusions).

In my case, if this were a considered statement about games of chance (and not a throwaway remark), I should have mentioned that proper statistical analysis can, and sometimes does, lead to the turning of the tables and finding specific ways of betting which have positive expected value. The classic case, I think, is MIT kids in Las Vegas, there's even a book about it.

Comment author: [deleted] 05 August 2013 01:34:10PM 0 points [-]

If you had a Death Note, what would you do with it?

Comment author: JoshuaZ 05 August 2013 01:44:24PM 28 points [-]

If you had a Death Note, what would you do with it?

See if I could get some very old people or otherwise have terminal illnesses volunteer to have their names written in it. We can use that data to experiment more with the note and figure out how it works. The existence of such an object implies massive things wrong with our current understanding of the universe, so figuring that out might be really helpful.

Comment author: Leonhart 05 August 2013 06:58:32PM 14 points [-]

I believe it canonically can't run out of pages, so I'd think hard about how to leverage infinite free paper into world domination.

Comment author: ChristianKl 05 August 2013 09:14:12PM 10 points [-]

I don't think you can infinitely fast pull out papers of the death note, so I doubt that you can produce more paper per hour than the average paper factory.

Comment author: FiftyTwo 05 August 2013 08:39:05PM 5 points [-]

Burn the paper to fuel a turbine. Congratulations you now have infinite free energy.

Comment author: Leonhart 05 August 2013 10:53:29PM 11 points [-]

Then it turns out that Death Note smoke particles retain the magic qualities of the source. Writing one's name in dust with a fingertip becomes fraught with peril.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 05 August 2013 09:32:12PM 3 points [-]

It may be extremely difficult to remove pages at a fast enough rate for this to be practically useful.

Comment author: Baughn 05 August 2013 06:56:08PM 3 points [-]

That's a really good fanfiction idea. I hope you won't mind if I swipe it.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 05 August 2013 07:46:59PM 5 points [-]

Not at all. Although to some extent I just asked, what would HJPEV do if he got a Death Note?

Comment author: DanielLC 06 August 2013 04:14:20AM *  6 points [-]

Harry wasn't even willing to use hoarcruxes. If you won't kill a dying man to make someone else immortal, then you're not going to do it just to throw science at the wall to see what sticks.

Comment author: ChristianKl 06 August 2013 11:53:19PM 2 points [-]

I think the fanfiction could be quite good at explaining to people modern cryptography and anonymity.

Comment author: ChristianKl 06 August 2013 09:08:51PM *  2 points [-]

How do you recruit the volunteers without giving away that you have a death note and some secret service wanting to take it away from you?

Comment author: ygert 05 August 2013 02:49:34PM *  18 points [-]

I would refrain from discussing it in a public forum like this one.

Comment author: LucasSloan 07 August 2013 02:10:19AM 3 points [-]

I'm sorry, but you've already communicated information about this sort of thing just by saying that.

Comment author: wedrifid 07 August 2013 02:52:51AM 2 points [-]

I'm sorry, but you've already communicated information about this sort of thing just by saying that.

Note that this in no way contradicts ygert's claim.

Comment author: Daniel_Burfoot 06 August 2013 03:29:17AM 14 points [-]

If I found something I thought was a Death Note I would spend a long, long time meditating on the question of how and in what way I'd gone insane.

Comment author: ygert 08 August 2013 02:00:09AM *  2 points [-]

Actually, I think most of the measure of people having Death Notes is... in Death Note itself. Thus, if I had a Death Note, I would logically conclude that the most likely explanation is that I myself am a character in Death Note. Not in the original manga, of course, as I read that and I know I wasn't in it, but likely in some spin-off. I could easily see myself as a character in some sort of Death Note video game/simulation.

I am on the fence about the Simulation Argument, but even so, this is exactly the kind of thing which is strong evidence that I am a fictional character in a simulation. Getting a Death Note? That's the kind of thing that only happens in stories!

(OK, it is true that I should keep in mind the possibility that I simply have gone insane. That is also a reasonable explanation. But it is far from the overwhelming certainty that you are implying.)

Comment author: PECOS-9 05 August 2013 10:42:49PM 9 points [-]

After finding a volunteer with a terminal illness, I'd test the limits of it. E.g. "The person will either write a valid proof of P=NP or a valid proof that P!=NP and then die of a heart attack."

Comment author: gwern 06 August 2013 01:47:17AM 20 points [-]

Already tested by Light in the manga, IIRC; the limits of skill top out before things like 'escape from maximum-security prison', so P=NP is well beyond the doable.

Comment author: Manfred 05 August 2013 02:36:24PM 8 points [-]

This probably violates a forum rule. Though I will speculate that Light's plan of trying to kill all criminals he sees named probably does way more harm than good even if you ignore the fact that some are innocent.

Comment author: FiftyTwo 05 August 2013 08:37:41PM 6 points [-]

Assuming for the moment the magic of the death note prevents me researching and reverse engineering it in any way:

I'd research the people who's death is most likely to result in positive outcomes and kill them. Off the top of my head I'd go for current dictators and their immediate underlings. For example right now killing Robert Mugabe and the upper echelons of Zanu PF is probably the best thing that could happen to Zimbabwe (at time of writing he has just 'won' an election and the opposition are already mobilised, so a slight push is all that is really needed to collapse the regime).

Ideally, if I could ensure suitable anonymity protections I would publicly declare my intentions to have them killed in such a way that identifies me as the killer (e.g. send media outlets a statement with the exact time of targets death). Once my threats have be shown to be sufficiently reliable I will start making them conditional, giving myself the ultimate political blackmailing machine (e.g. if the international Red Cross does not have credible evidence within 30 days that all detention camps in North Korea have been closed and prisoners released, every member of the people's congress will die simultaneously). Assuming I can maintain my anonymity in the long run I would be able to do a significant amount of good.

Comment author: ChristianKl 06 August 2013 11:38:24PM 3 points [-]

What do you do if North Korea put's out a press release that they will nuke Seoul as a reprisal if you kill all members of the congress?

Comment author: ThrustVectoring 06 August 2013 01:38:45PM 2 points [-]

Take a big company like, say, goldman-sachs. Buy out of the money put options. Death-note the top three or four layers of management, simultaneously. Use the millions of dollars you have appropriated for whatever.

Comment author: ChristianKl 06 August 2013 09:24:46PM *  3 points [-]

What do you tell the SEC when they asked you why you brought the options for Goldman Sachs?

Comment author: FiftyTwo 06 August 2013 04:38:38PM 2 points [-]

If we're happy to go full evil then killing world leaders is also a good way to disrupt the economy (see the sudden crash when a fake report of Obama being shot was released).

Comment author: ThrustVectoring 06 August 2013 07:40:00PM 8 points [-]

That's likely to cause more collateral damage than merely taking out the leadership of one company. Cost/benefit analysis and whatnot.

Gambling on sporting events is probably another good way to use the Death Note for making money. It's probably far more ethical. Does the Death Note work on horses? If so, then you can bet on longshots while sabotaging the favorites by killing horses.