I'm not going to continue this thread any longer though, as many of the pieces should be addressed in a forthcoming paper with Nick Bostrom.
Alright, I'll wait for that to come out then.
Thanks gwern and Carl. From what you've said here, my confidence that this is (at least in principle) possible now has risen. I do wish somebody with credentials would go on the record about it--I guess that's what your paper is for.
The article by Robert Sparrow:
Quote:
The possibility was discussed in MIRI's "Uncertain Future" toy forecasting model back in 2009, and the analysis formulated a few years before that.
ETA: And further discussed in James Miller's recent book, "Singularity Rising."