But we do see behavior like this--not via spectacular attacks in the developed world, which would be extremely high risk, but via much more sophisticated, lower risk methods. Moving paper is much easier (and higher-reward) than violent crime. Spectacular attacks on oil facilities and assassinations of regulatory officials do occur, but they're usually in the developing world, much farther from cameras, and they're usually conducted by people who don't have slicker methods at hand.
And those are in capital markets, where people can make a profit without ever beating the average. Betting markets don't work that way. We always see behavior like this in betting markets. Competitors threatened or hurt or drugged, refs paid off or intimidated, bad information leaked to the public. Why would a betting market concerned with the political future look different than a betting market concerned with jai-alai?
But we do see behavior like this--not via spectacular attacks in the developed world, which would be extremely high risk, but via much more sophisticated, lower risk methods.
So you're just claiming that 'all white-collar crime' proves your thesis? But that defeats your worries: we seem to be perfectly able to tolerate existing levels of financial market corruption and collusion, and no one seems to seriously think that we would be better off shutting down the stock market and all other financial markets, not using them at all, which is the equivalent o...
Betting on the future is a good way to reveal true beliefs.
As one example of such a bet on a key debate about a post-human future, I'd like to announce here that Robin Hanson and I have made the following agreement. (See also Robin's post at Overcoming Bias):
It's a bet on the old question: ems vs. de novo AGI. Kurzweil and Kapor bet on another well-known debate: Will machines pass the Turing Test. It would be interesting to list some other key debates that we could bet on.
But it's hard to make a bet when settling the bet may occur in extreme conditions:
MIRI has a "techno-volatile" world-view: We're not just optimistic or pessimistic about the impact of technology on our future. Instead, we predict that technology will have an extreme impact, good or bad, on the future of humanity. In these extreme futures, the fundamental components of a bet--the bettors and the payment currency--may be missing or altered beyond recognition.
So, how can we calibrate our probability estimates about extreme events? One way is by betting on how people will bet in the future when they are closer to the events, on the assumption that they'll know better than we do. Though this is an indirect and imperfect method, it might be the best we have for calibrating our beliefs about extreme futures.
For example, Robin Hanson has suggested a market on tickets to a survival shelter as a way of betting on an apocalypse. However, this only relevant for futures where shelters can help; and where there is time to get to one while the ticket holder is alive, and while the social norm of honoring tickets still applies.
We could also define bets on the progress of MIRI and similar organizations. Looking back on the years since 2005, when I started tracking this, I would have liked to bet on, or at least discuss, certain milestones before they happened. They served as (albeit weak) arguments from authority or from social proof for the validity of MIRI's ideas. Some examples of milestones that have already been reached:
Looking to the future, we can bet on some other FAI milestones. For example, we could bet on these coming true by a certain year.
(Some of these will need more refinement before we can bet on them.)
Another approach is to bet on technology trends: brain scanning resolution; prices for computing power; etc. But these bets are about a Kurzweillian Law of Accelerating Returns, which may be quite distinct from the Intelligence Explosion and other extreme futures we are interested in.
Many bets only make sense if you believe that a soft takeoff is likely. If you believe that, you could bet on AI events while still allowing the bettors a few years to enjoy their winnings.
You can make a bet on hard vs. soft takeoff simply by setting your discount rate. If you're 20 years old and think that the economy as we know it will end instantly in, for example, 2040, then you won't save for your retirement. (See my article at H+Magazine.) But such decisions don't pin down your beliefs very precisely: Most people who don't save for their retirement are simply being improvident. Not saving makes sense if the human race is about to go extinct, but also if we are going to enter an extreme utopia or dystopia where your savings have no meaning. Likewise, most people save for retirement simply out of old-fashioned prudence, but you might build up your wealth in order to enjoy it pre-Singularity, or in order to take it with you to a post-Singularity world in which "old money" is still valuable.
I'd like to get your opinion: What are the best bets we can use for calibrating our beliefs about the extreme events we are interested in? Can you suggest some more of these indirect markers, or a different way of betting?