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DanielLC comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 26, chapter 97 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Two things made me confused in this chapter.
First, the false dichotomy: it is obviously unlikely for Lucius to not know that Draco was framed, and yet kill Hermione - it presumes two people capable of evading and manipulating Hogwart's wards - but why is it unlikely for him to have not known, and also not been responsible for killing her?
(A caveat is that whatever the answer is, it needs to make sense from the perspective of a random person reading the Daily Prophet.)
The second: what is Harry's plot with the pen, or alternatively with whatever's happening as Lucius signs the paper? What is he really up to here?
It's unlikely for him to currently not know, and also not be responsible for killing her, since the fact that she was murdered shortly afterwards shows that someone wanted her dead, and is powerful evidence that she was framed.
Neeevermind. Reread that section. Fair enough.
Reminds me a little of Komponisto's argument about the Amanda Knox case: to show that she and Raffael killed Meredith, it is sufficient to show that they tried to cover up her murder by faking a breakin: http://lesswrong.com/lw/35d/inherited_improbabilities_transferring_the_burden/
Well, that's how Encyclopedia Brown solves all his cases.
Well, yes. But that's not the context - it's something that Lucius' fans could figure out - Harry says that "they can't have it both ways, either Lucius knew she was framed at the time or killed Hermione."