After having read this book, I assign a rather high prior to "he employs some extremely complicated technique, possibly involving some long honed skill ordinary people would never bother with, which no layperson could realistically hope to guess." One of the takeaways I got from that book is that while some magic relies on simple, elegant tricks which seem obvious in hindsight, a lot of the killer tricks are really, really complicated. He may not even be employing the same technique in every permutation of the trick; magicians routinely learn a wide array of methods for accomplishing individual "effects."