CarlShulman comments on Where I've Changed My Mind on My Approach to Speculative Causes - Less Wrong Discussion
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (51)
Based on what we already know this would require a very unrepresentative sample, and cause wider revisions. And if they published such obviously unconvincing reasons it would lead to similar updates in many casual observers.
Yes, this argument is remarkably unconvincing. Human labor is still costly, limited in supply (it's not 9 months, it's 20+ years, with feeding, energy costs, unreliable quality and many other restrictions), and so forth.
There's too much focus on confirmation - e.g. if it is false, there must be some update in the opposite direction, but in practice one would just say that "those top 10 AI experts took us seriously and engaged out arguments, which boosts our confidence that we are on the right track".