Other questions I'd like to see better answered in clear, compact, intuition-pumping articles like the above:
a. Is enough work being done on FAI? Are AI researchers in general too dismissive or blasé about safety concerns?
b. Why should we expect hard takeoff? More generally, why can't we wait until AGI is clearly about to be invented before working on safety?
c. Why is recursive self-improvement such an important threshold? How can we be confident humans have drastically suboptimal intelligence, and that massively superhuman intelligence optimization is possible without a massively superhuman initial hardware investment?
d. What's the most plausible scenario for how an intelligence explosion will initially go? Why?
e. What are the biggest open problems for FAI research?
f. For present purposes, what is a preference? Why do we bracket the possibility of superintelligent irrationality? Why do AGIs tend toward temporally stable preferences?
g. Why is AGI 'hungry', i.e., desirous of unlimited resources? Why do we expect FAI and UFAI to have galaxy- or universe-wide effects?
h. What's a reasonable (as non-squick goes) fun interstellar growth scenario? Why is the future so important?
i. What is the Prisoner's Dilemma, and why is it relevant to FAI? How does it generalize to non-sentient prisoners?
j. What would a meta-ethical discourse between Clippy and a human look like?
k. Why is it hard to give AGI known or predictable goals?
l. What makes value fragile and complex? What are some plausible horror stories if we get things slightly wrong?
I've seen most of these addressed, but awkwardly, abstractly, or in the context of much longer texts. If you know of especially good stand-alone posts covering these issues, or would like to collaborate on making or synthesizing one, let me know!
(Feel free to suggest borderline options. I've probably missed some great candidates, and they can always serve as templates or raw materials for future posts.)
I'd caution about conflating FOOM with AGI risks, or even with hungry AGI. Hard takeoff is the most obviously risky situation from an AGI safety perspective because it would be impossible to react to an unfriendly AGI without possible world-ending consequences, and is very compelling in story-telling, but a soft takeoff situation is not particularly likely to be safe just because someone /could/ turn off its supplies if no one would be able to tell that such a concern is necessary. An AI that's only several dozen times smarter than humans probably won't ...
I'm putting together a list of short and sweet introductions to the dangers of artificial superintelligence.
My target audience is intelligent, broadly philosophical narrative thinkers, who can evaluate arguments well but who don't know a lot of the relevant background or jargon.
My method is to construct a Sequence mix tape — a collection of short and enlightening texts, meant to be read in a specified order. I've chosen them for their persuasive and pedagogical punchiness, and for their flow in the list. I'll also (separately) list somewhat longer or less essential follow-up texts below that are still meant to be accessible to astute visitors and laypeople.
The first half focuses on intelligence, answering 'What is Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?'. The second half focuses on friendliness, answering 'How can we make AGI safe, and why does it matter?'. Since the topics of some posts aren't obvious from their titles, I've summarized them using questions they address.
Part I. Building intelligence.
1. Power of Intelligence. Why is intelligence important?
2. Ghosts in the Machine. Is building an intelligence from scratch like talking to a person?
3. Artificial Addition. What can we conclude about the nature of intelligence from the fact that we don't yet understand it?
4. Adaptation-Executers, not Fitness-Maximizers. How do human goals relate to the 'goals' of evolution?
5. The Blue-Minimizing Robot. What are the shortcomings of thinking of things as 'agents', 'intelligences', or 'optimizers' with defined values/goals/preferences?
Part II. Intelligence explosion.
6. Optimization and the Singularity. What is optimization? As optimization processes, how do evolution, humans, and self-modifying AGI differ?
7. Efficient Cross-Domain Optimization. What is intelligence?
8. The Design Space of Minds-In-General. What else is universally true of intelligences?
9. Plenty of Room Above Us. Why should we expect self-improving AGI to quickly become superintelligent?
Part III. AI risk.
10. The True Prisoner's Dilemma. What kind of jerk would Defect even knowing the other side Cooperated?
11. Basic AI drives. Why are AGIs dangerous even when they're indifferent to us?
12. Anthropomorphic Optimism. Why do we think things we hope happen are likelier?
13. The Hidden Complexity of Wishes. How hard is it to directly program an alien intelligence to enact my values?
14. Magical Categories. How hard is it to program an alien intelligence to reconstruct my values from observed patterns?
15. The AI Problem, with Solutions. How hard is it to give AGI predictable values of any sort? More generally, why does AGI risk matter so much?
Part IV. Ends.
16. Could Anything Be Right? What do we mean by 'good', or 'valuable', or 'moral'?
17. Morality as Fixed Computation. Is it enough to have an AGI improve the fit between my preferences and the world?
18. Serious Stories. What would a true utopia be like?
19. Value is Fragile. If we just sit back and let the universe do its thing, will it still produce value? If we don't take charge of our future, won't it still turn out interesting and beautiful on some deeper level?
20. The Gift We Give To Tomorrow. In explaining value, are we explaining it away? Are we making our goals less important?
Summary: Five theses, two lemmas, and a couple of strategic implications.
All of the above were written by Eliezer Yudkowsky, with the exception of The Blue-Minimizing Robot (by Yvain), Plenty of Room Above Us and The AI Problem (by Luke Muehlhauser), and Basic AI Drives (a wiki collaboration). Seeking a powerful conclusion, I ended up making a compromise between Eliezer's original The Gift We Give To Tomorrow and Raymond Arnold's Solstice Ritual Book version. It's on the wiki, so you can further improve it with edits.
Further reading:
I'm posting this to get more feedback for improving it, to isolate topics for which we don't yet have high-quality, non-technical stand-alone introductions, and to reintroduce LessWrongers to exceptionally useful posts I haven't seen sufficiently discussed, linked, or upvoted. I'd especially like feedback on how the list I provided flows as a unit, and what inferential gaps it fails to address. My goals are:
A. Via lucid and anti-anthropomorphic vignettes, to explain AGI in a way that encourages clear thought.
B. Via the Five Theses, to demonstrate the importance of Friendly AI research.
C. Via down-to-earth meta-ethics, humanistic poetry, and pragmatic strategizing, to combat any nihilisms, relativisms, and defeatisms that might be triggered by recognizing the possibility (or probability) of Unfriendly AI.
D. Via an accessible, substantive, entertaining presentation, to introduce the raison d'être of LessWrong to sophisticated newcomers in a way that encourages further engagement with LessWrong's community and/or content.
What do you think? What would you add, remove, or alter?