Thanks for all the poll submissions. I decided since I just finished Umineko, this is a good time to analyze the 49 responses.

The gist is that the direction seems to be as predicted and the effect size reasonable (odds-ratio of 1.77), but not big enough to yield any impressive level of statistical-significance (p=0.24):

R> poll <- read.csv("<http://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/182368464/umineko-poll.csv>")
R> library(ordinal)
R> summary(clm(as.ordered(Certainty) ~ Crypto, data=poll))
formula: as.ordered(Certainty) ~ Crypto
data: poll
link threshold nobs logLik AIC niter max.grad cond.H
logit flexible 48 -30.58 67.16 5(0) 5.28e-09 2.9e+01
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
Crypto 0.571 0.491 1.16 0.24
Threshold coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error z value
0|1 1.988 0.708 2.81
1|2 3.075 0.822 3.74
(1 observation deleted due to missingness)
R> exp(0.571)
[1] 1.77

Or if you prefer, a linear regression:

R> summary(lm(Certainty ~ Crypto, data=poll))
Call:
lm(formula = Certainty ~ Crypto, data = poll)
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-0.409 -0.287 -0.287 -0.164 1.836
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 0.164 0.151 1.09 0.28
Crypto 0.122 0.117 1.05 0.30