A few weeks ago I started assessing my own calibration, using tools such as the CFAR calibration game. I got fairly good and concluded that I am relatively well calibrated.

When given a question, my instincts would immediately throw out a number. I'd unpack it and adjust it in accordance to known biases. (Avoid representativeness, start from base rates, treat the initial number as a degree of support, factor in strength of evidence, etc.)

Yesterday, an assessment of probability came up in conversation. Immediately, my instincts threw out the number "80%". My thoughts went like this:

My gut says 80%. I'm well calibrated, so 80% is probably right.

I opened my mouth to speak.

Then I shut my mouth.

I understand Löb's theorem on an intuitive level now.