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Comment author:shminux
16 September 2013 05:28:36PM
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Another feature suggestion that will probably never be implemented: a check box for "make my up/down vote visible to the poster". The information required is already in the database.
Comment author:Larks
15 September 2013 04:53:25PM
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People sometimes say that we don't choose to be born. Is this false if I myself choose to have kids for the same reason my parents did (or at least to have kids if I was ever in the relevantly same situation?) If so, can I increase my measure by having more children for these reasons?
Comment author:Armok_GoB
16 September 2013 12:57:27AM
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Technically yes, but obviously if this is part of your motivation for doing so then thats a meaningful difference unless your parents also understood TDT and had that as part of their reason, so if in fact they did not (which they probably didn't since it wasn't invented back then) then this answer is entirely useless.
Comment author:Armok_GoB
22 September 2013 04:58:16AM
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Interesting point! This is quite a tricky problem that I've considered before. My current stance is we need to know more of the specifics and causal history of how those kind of rules are implemented in general before we can determine if they count, and there is also the possibility that once we've done that it turns out they "should" but our current formalizations won't... This is an interesting mostly unexplored (i think) subject that seems likely to spawn an fruitful discussion thou.
Comment author:wedrifid
13 September 2013 02:31:54AM
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Who is this and what has he done with Robin Hanson?
The central premise is in allowing people to violate patents if it is not "intentional". While reading the article the voice in my head which is my model of Robin Hanson was screaming "Hypocrisy! Perverse incentives!" in unison with the model of Eliezer Yudkowsky which was also shouting "Lost Purpose!". While the appeal to total invasive surveillance slightly reduced the hypocrisy concerns it at best pushes the hypocrisy to a higher level in the business hierarchy while undermining the intended purpose of intellectual property rights.
Comment author:[deleted]
11 September 2013 07:48:09PM
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I found this interesting post over at lambda the ultimate about constructing a provably total (terminating) self-compiler. It looked quite similar to some of the stuff MIRI has been doing with the Tiling Agents thing. Maybe someone with more math background can check it out and see if there are any ideas to be shared?
Comment author:Adele_L
13 September 2013 01:49:51AM
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This is the same basic idea as Benja's Parametric Polymorphism, with N in the post corresponding to kappa from parametric polymorphism.
The "superstition" is:
We make our compiler superstitious as follows: we pick an unused no-op of the target machine that should never occur in normal generated code and add an axiom that says that running this no-op actually bumps a counter that exists in the ether, and, if this unseen counter exceeds N, then it halts execution of the machine. Since we could have started with an arbitrary N, we will never reach a contradiction if we take the bottom out of the level descent, so long as we don't let the logic know we took the bottom out.
And from the section in Tiling Agents about parametric polymorphism (recommended if you want to learn about parametric polymorphism):
It is difficult to see what "believing in" $T_\kappa$ could correspond to in terms of the epistemic state of a rational agent. We believe from outside the system that $\kappa$'s intended interpretation is "any natural number," but this realization is apparently forbidden to the agent to whom $\kappa$ refers to some specific finite number about which nothing is known except that it plays a vital role in the agent's goal system. This seems like an odd mental state for a rational agent.
Anyway, it's interesting that someone else has a very similar idea for this kind of problem. But as mentioned in Tiling Agents, the "superstitious belief" seems like a bad idea for an epistemically rational agent.
Comment author:[deleted]
13 September 2013 03:50:35PM
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Comment author:[deleted]
13 September 2013 03:50:35PM
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It is neat that this problem is coming up elsewhere. It reminds me that MIRI's work could be relevant to people working in other sub-fields of math, which is a good sign and a good opportunity.
Powell’s biggest revelation in considering the role of humans in algorithms, though, was that humans can do it better. “I would go down to Yellow, we were trying to solve these big deterministic problems. We weren’t even close. I would sit and look at the dispatch center and think, how are they doing it?” That’s when he noticed: They are not trying to solve the whole week’s schedule at once. They’re doing it in pieces. “We humans have funny ways of solving problems that no one’s been able to articulate,” he says. Operations research people just punt and call it a “heuristic approach.”
Comment author:Vaniver
12 September 2013 04:49:50PM
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In loading trucks for warehouses, some OR guys I know ran into the opposite problem- they encoded all the rules as constraints, found a solution, and it was way worse than what people were actually doing. Turns out it was because the people actually loading the trucks didn't pay attention to whether or not the load was balanced on the truck, or so on (i.e. mathematically feasible was a harder set of constraints than implementable because the policy book was harder than the actuality).
(I also don't think it's quite fair to call the OR approach 'punting', since we do quite a bit of optimization using heuristics.)
Comment author:Viliam_Bur
08 September 2013 12:04:11PM
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Anyone tried to use the outside view on our rationalist community?
I mean, we are not the first people on this planet who tried to become more rational. Who were our predecessors, and what happened to them? Where did they succeed and where they failed? What lesson can we take from their failures?
The obvious reply will be: No one has tried doing exactly the same thing as we are doing. That's technically true, but that's a fully general excuse against using outside view, because if you look into enough details, no two projects are exactly the same. Yet it is experimentally proved that even looking at sufficiently similar projects gives better estimates than just using the inside view. So, if there was no one exactly like us, who was the most similar?
I admit I don't have data on this, because I don't study history, and I have no personal experience with Objectivists (which are probably the most obvious analogy). I would probably put Objectivists, various secret societies, educational institutions, or self-help groups into the reference class. Did I miss something important? The common trait is that those people are trying to make their thinking better, avoid some frequent faults, and teach other people to do the same thing. Who would be your candidate for the reference group? Then, we could explore them one by one and guess what they did right and what they did wrong. Seems to me that many small groups fail to expand, but on the other hand, the educational institutions that succeed to establish themselves in the society, become gradually filled with average people and lose the will to become stronger.
Comment author:Armok_GoB
15 September 2013 10:47:59PM
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I'd like to here point out a reference class that includes if I understood things right: the original buddhism movement, the academic community of france around the revolution, and the ancient greek philosophy tradition. More examples and a name for this reference class would be welcome.
I include this mainly to counterbalance the bias towards automatically looking for the kind of cynical reference classes typically associated with and primed by the concept of the outside view.
Looking at the reference class examples I came up with, there seems to be a tendency towards having huge geniuses at the start that nobody later could compete with, wich lead after a few centuries to dissolving into spinoff religions dogmatically accepting or even perverting the original ideals.
DISCLAIMER: This is just one reference class and the conclusions reached by that reference class, it was reached/constructed by trying to compensate for a predicted bias with tends to lead to even worse bias on average.
Comment author:Viliam_Bur
16 September 2013 08:57:38PM
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Thank you! This is the reference class I was looking for, so it is good to see someone able to overcome the priming done by, uhm, not exactly the most neutral people. I had a feeling that something like this is out there, but specific examples did not come into my mind.
The danger of not being able to "replicate" Eliezer seems rather realistic to me. Sure, there are many smart people in CFAR, and they will continue doing their great work... but would they be able to create a website like LW and attract many people if they had to start from zero or if for whetever reasons the LW website disappeared? (I don't know about how MIRI works, so I cannot estimate how much Eliezer would be replaceable there.) Also, for spreading x-rationality to other countries, we need local leaders there, if we want to have meetups and seminars, etc. There are meetups all over the world, but they are probably not the same thing as the communities in Bay Area and New York (although the fact that two such communities exist is encouraging).
Comment author:ChristianKl
09 September 2013 10:58:06AM
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I think the cult view is valuable to look at some issues.
When you have someone asking whether he should cut ties with his nonrational family members is valuable to keep in mind that's culty behavior.
Normal groups in our society don't encourage their members to cut family ties. Bad cults do those things. That doesn't mean that there's never a time where one should rationally advice someone to cut those ties, but one should be careful.
Given the outside view of how cults went to a place where people literally drunk kool aid I think it's important to encourage people to keep ties to people who aren't in the community.
Part of why Eliezer banned the basilisk might have been that having it more actively around would push LessWrong in the direction of being a cult.
There's already the promise for nearly eternal life in a FAI moderated heaven.
It always useful to investigate where cult like behaviors are useful and where they aren't.
Comment author:Vaniver
08 September 2013 05:22:24PM
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Anyone tried to use the outside view on our rationalist community?
I've seen a few attempts, mostly from outsiders. The danger involved there is an outsider has difficult picking the right reference class- you don't know how much they know about you, and how much they know about other things.
The things that the outside view has suggested we should be worried about that I remember (in rough order of frequency):
One of the things that I find interesting is in response to patrissimo's comment in September 2010 that LW doesn't have enough instrumental rationality practice, Yvain proposed that we use subreddits, and the result was a "discussion" subreddit. Now in September 2013 it looks like there might finally be an instrumental rationality subreddit. That doesn't seem particularly agile. (This is perhaps an unfair comparison, as CFAR has been created in the intervening time and is a much more promising development in terms of boosting instrumental rationality, and there are far more meetups now than before, and so on.)
There's also been a handful of "here are other groups that we could try to emulate," and the primary one I remember was calcsam's series on Mormons (initial post here, use the navigate-by-author links to find the others). The first post will be particularly interesting for the "outside view" analysis because he specifically discusses the features of the LDS church and LW that he thinks puts them in the same reference class (for that series of posts, at least).
Comment author:Viliam_Bur
09 September 2013 07:16:21PM
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The reason why I asked was not just "who can we be pattern-matched with?", but also "what can we predict from this pattern-matching?". Not merely to say "X is like Y", but to say "X is like Y, and p(Y) is true, therefore it is possible that p(X) is also true".
Here are two answers pattern-matching LW to a cult. For me, the interesting question here is: "how do cults evolve?". Because that can be used to predict how LW will evolve. Not connotations, but predictions of future experiences.
My impression of cults is that they essentially have three possible futures: Some of them become small, increasingly isolated groups, that die with their members. Others are viral enough to keep replacing the old members with new members, and grow. The most successful ones discover a way of living that does not burn out their members, and become religions. -- Extinction, virality, or symbiosis.
What determines which way a cult will go? Probably it's compatibility of long-term membership with ordinary human life. If it's too costly, if it requires too much sacrifice from members, symbiosis is impossible. The other two choices probably depend on how much effort does the group put into recruiting new members.
Having too many young people is some evidence of incompatibility. Perhaps the group requires a level of sacrifice that a university student can pay, but an employed father or mother with children simply cannot. What happens to the members who are unable to give the sacrifice? Well... in LW community nothing happens to anyone. How boring! It's not like I will become excommunicated if I stop reading the website every day. (Although, I may be excommunicated from the "top contributors, 30 days" list.) So the question is whether members who don't have too much time can still find the community meaningful, or whether they will leave voluntarily. In other words: Is LessWrong useful for an older person with a busy family life? -- If yes, symbiosis is possible; if no, it's probably virality as long as the website and rationality seminars keep attracting new people, or extinction if they fail to.
In this light, I am happy about recent Gunnar's articles, and I hope he will not be alone. Because the cult (or Mormonism) analogy suggests that this is the right way to go, for long-term sustainability.
The other analogy, with shining self-improvement seminars, seems more worrying to me. In self-improvement seminars, the speakers are not rewarded for actually helping people; they are rewarded for sounding good. (We know the names of some self-help gurus... but don't know the names of people who became awesome because of their seminars. Their references are all about their image, none about their product.) Is rationality advice similar?
This is an old problem, actually the problem discussed in the oldest article on LessWrong: if we can't measure rationality, we can't measure improvements in rationality... and then all we can say about CFAR rationality lessons is that they feel good. -- Unless perhaps the questionnaires given to people who did and didn't attend rationality minicamps showed some interesting results.
And by the way, whether we have or don't have an applied rationality subreddit, doesn't seem too important to me. The important thing is, whether we have or don't have applied rationality articles. (Those articles could as well be posted in Main or Discussion. And the new subreddit will not generate them automatically.)
Comment author:Vaniver
10 September 2013 10:10:08PM
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The reason why I asked was not just "who can we be pattern-matched with?", but also "what can we predict from this pattern-matching?". Not merely to say "X is like Y", but to say "X is like Y, and p(Y) is true, therefore it is possible that p(X) is also true".
Agreed. One of the reasons why I wrote a comment that was a bunch of links to other posts is because I think that there is a lot to say about this topic. Just "LW is like the Mormon Church" was worth ~5 posts in main.
In other words: Is LessWrong useful for an older person with a busy family life?
A related question: is LessWrong useful for people who are awesome, or just people who want to become awesome? This is part of patrissimo's point: if you're spending an hour a day on LW instead of an hour a day exercising, you may be losing the instrumental rationality battle. If someone who used to be part of the LW community stops posting because they've become too awesome, that has unpleasant implications for the dynamics of the community.
And by the way, whether we have or don't have an applied rationality subreddit, doesn't seem too important to me.
I was interested in that because "difference between the time a good idea is suggested and the time that idea is implemented" seems like an interesting reference class.
Comment author:Viliam_Bur
12 September 2013 09:02:35PM
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Isn't this a danger that all online communities face? Those who procrastinate a lot online get a natural advantage against those who don't. Thus, unless the community is specifically designed against that (how exactly?), the procrastinators will become the elite.
(It's an implication: Not every procrastinator becomes a member of elite, but all members of elite are procrastinators.)
Perhaps we could make an exception for Eliezer, because for him writing the hundreds of articles was not procrastination. But unless writing a lot of stuff online is one's goal, then procrastination is almost a necessity to get a celebrity status on a website.
Then we should perhaps think about how to prevent this effect. A few months ago we had some concerned posts against "Eternal September" and stuff. But this is more dangerous, because it's less visible, it is a slow, yet predictable change, towards procrastination.
Comment author:Vaniver
12 September 2013 09:47:06PM
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Isn't this a danger that all online communities face?
Yes, which is I think a rather good support for having physical meetups.
Then we should perhaps think about how to prevent this effect.
Agreed.
A few months ago we had some concerned posts against "Eternal September" and stuff. But this is more dangerous, because it's less visible, it is a slow, yet predictable change, towards procrastination.
Note that many of the Eternal September complaints are about this, though indirectly: the fear is that the most awesome members of a discussion are the ones most aggravated by newcomers, because of the distance between them and newcomers is larger than the difference between a median member and a newcomer. The most awesome people also generally have better alternatives, and thus are more sensitive to shifts in quality.
Comment author:linkhyrule5
12 September 2013 10:41:57PM
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Supporting this, I'll note that I don't see many posts from, say, Wei Dai or Salamon in recent history - though as I joined all of a month of ago take that with a dish of salt.
I wonder if something on the MIRI/CFAR end would help? Incentives on the actual researchers to make occasional (not too many, they do have more important things to do) posts on LessWrong would probably alleviate the effect.
Comment author:Viliam_Bur
14 September 2013 12:47:30PM
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Perhaps to some degree, different karma coefficients could be used to support what we consider useful on reflection (not just on impulse voting). For example, if a well-researched article generated more karma than a month of procrastinating while writing comments...
There is some support for this: articles in Main get 10× more karma than comments. But 10 is probably not enough, and also it is not obvious what exactly belongs to Main; it's very unclearly defined. Maybe there could be a Research subreddit where only scientific-level articles are allowed, and there the karma coefficient could be pretty high. (Alternatively, to prevent karma inflation, the karma from comments should be divided by 10.)
Comment author:ChristianKl
09 September 2013 09:21:47PM
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The other analogy, with shining self-improvement seminars, seems more worrying to me. In self-improvement seminars, the speakers are not rewarded for actually helping people; they are rewarded for sounding good. (We know the names of some self-help gurus... but don't know the names of people who became awesome because of their seminars. Their references are all about their image, none about their product.)
I don't think that "sounding good" is a accurate description of how people in the personal development field succeed.
Look at Tony Robbins who one of the most successful in the business. When you ask most people whether walking on hot coal is impressive they would tell you that it is. Tony manages to get thousands of people in a seminar to walk over hot coals.
Afterwards they go home and tell there friends about who they walked about hot coals. That impresses people and more people come to his seminars.
It not only that his talk sounds good but that he is able to provide impressive experiences.
On the other hand his success is also partly about being very good at building a network marketing structure that works.
But in some sense that not much different than the way universities work. They evidence that universities actually make people successful in life isn't that strong.
What determines which way a cult will go? Probably it's compatibility of long-term membership with ordinary human life. If it's too costly, if it requires too much sacrifice from members, symbiosis is impossible. The other two choices probably depend on how much effort does the group put into recruiting new members.
I don't think so. If you are a scientologist and believe in Xenu that reduces your compatibility with ordinary human life. At the same time it makes you more committed to the group if you are willing something to belong.
Opus Dei members wear cilice to make themselves uncomfortable to show that they are committed.
I think the fact that you don't see where many people as members of groups that need a lot of commitment is a feature of 20th century where mainstream society with institution such as television that are good at presenting a certain culture which everyone in a country has a shared identity.
At the moment all sort of groups like the Amnish or LDS that require more commitment of their members seem to grow. It could be that we have a lot more people as members of groups that require sacrifice in a hundred years than we have now.
Comment author:FiftyTwo
08 September 2013 06:11:45PM
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I've been discussing the idea of writing a series of short story fanfics where Rapture, an underwater city from the computer game Bioshock run by an Objectivist/Libertarian, is run by a different political philosophy. Possibly as a collaborative project with different people submitting different short stories. Would anyone here be interested in reading or contributiggg to something like that?
Comment author:ChristianKl
08 September 2013 04:46:32PM
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Bruce Schneier wrote an article on the Guardian in which he argues that we should give plausibility to the idea that the NSA can hack more forms of encryption than we previously believed.
Prefer symmetric cryptography over public-key cryptography. Prefer conventional discrete-log-based systems over elliptic-curve systems; the latter have constants that the NSA influences when they can.
The security of bitcoin wallets rests on elliptic-curve cryptography. This could mean that the NSA has the power to turn the whole bitcoin economy into toast if bitcoin becomes a real problem for them on a political level.
Comment author:moridinamael
08 September 2013 01:11:59AM
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What happened with the Sequence Reruns? I was getting a lot out of them. Were they halted due to lack of a party willing to continue posting them, or was a decision made to end them?
Comment author:Vaniver
08 September 2013 05:42:19PM
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What happened with the Sequence Reruns? I was getting a lot out of them. Were they halted due to lack of a party willing to continue posting them, or was a decision made to end them?
Comment author:wedrifid
08 September 2013 01:24:32AM
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What happened with the Sequence Reruns? I was getting a lot out of them. Were they halted due to lack of a party willing to continue posting them, or was a decision made to end them?
I never heard of such a decision and if it was made then it can be ignored because it was a bad decision. (Until power is applied to hinder implementation.)
If you value the sequence reruns then by all means start making the posts!
I personally get my 'sequence reruns' via the audio versions. Originally I used text to speech but now many of them have castify.
Comment author:niceguyanon
07 September 2013 01:21:00AM
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When I was a teenager I took a personality test as a requirement for employment at a retail clothing store. I didn't take it too seriously, I "failed" it and that was the end of my application. How do these tests work and how to you pass or fail them? Is there evidence that these tests can actually predict certain behaviors?
Comment author:Dahlen
07 September 2013 02:40:09AM
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You cannot fail a personality test unless the person administering the test wants to filter out specific personality types that are similar to yours, for a process unrelated to the test itself (e.g. employment).
The thing is, most possible personalities seem to be considered undesirable by employers, and so many people simply resort to lying on these tests to present a favourable image to employers (basically: extrovert, conformist, "positive"/upbeat/optimistic, ambitious, responsible etc.). Looks like employers know about this, but don't care anyway, because they think that if you aren't willing to mold yourself into somebody else for the sake of the job, then you don't want the job enough and there are many others who do.
(Disclaimer: I'm an outsider to the employment process and might not know what I'm talking about. My impressions are gathered from job interview advice and job descriptions.)
Comment author:[deleted]
08 September 2013 04:18:58AM
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You might be interested in the [Big Five] model of personality, which seems to be a rough scientific consensus, and is better empirically supported than other models. In particular, measures of conscientiousness have a relatively strong predictive value for things like grades, unemployment, crime, income, etc. Myers-Briggs-style tests that sort people into buckets ("You're an extrovert! You're an introvert!") are more common but don't seem to have a much predictive value except insofar as they reduce to something like the Big Five model.
However, from what I remember of applying to crappy jobs, you may not have taken a real test. I remember normal sounding items like, "I prefer large groups to small groups", mixed in with "trick" questions like, "If I saw my best friend stealing from the cash register, I would report him/her". I assume you got those right. Either way, you're expected to just lie and say you'd be the perfect, most hard-working employee ever and that cleaning toilets/selling shoes/washing cars is what you've dreamed of doing since you were five.
Comment author:Ichneumon
08 September 2013 01:45:10AM
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I've heard (second-hand, but the original source was a counselor for job-finding) that a trick for passing those, if it's a test that offers options from "Strongly disagree" to "Strongly agree", is to always pick one of the polarized ends ("Strongly" either). The idea seems to be that they'll prefer candidates who are less washy, have stronger convictions, etc.
Comment author:Randy_M
06 September 2013 04:32:36PM
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This is rather off-topic to the board, but my impression is that there is some sympathy here for alternative theories on heart disease/healthy diets, etc. (which I share).
Any for alternative cancer treatments? I don't find any that have been recommended to me as remotely plausible, but wonder if I'm missing something, if some disproving study if flawed, etc.
No law or even good idea is going to stop various militaries around the world, including our own, from working as fast as they can to create Skynet. Even if they tell you they've put the brakes on and are cautiously proceeding in perfect accordance with your carefully constructed rules of friendly AI, that's just their way of telling you you're stupid.
There are basically two outcomes possible here: They succeed in your lifetime, and you are killed by a Terminator, or they don't succeed in your lifetime and you die of old age.
I suggest choosing option three: Have one last party with your navel, then get off your sofa and grab a computer or a pad of paper and start working on solving AI as fast as you can. Contrary to singularity b.s., the AI you invent isn't going to rewrite the laws of physics and destroy the universe before you can hit control-C. Basic space, time, and energy limitations will likely confound your laptop's ambitions to take over the world for quite some time--plenty of time for those who best understand it to toy with what it really takes to make it friendly. That's assuming it's you and me, and not SAIC. And maybe, just maybe, if we work together and make enough progress in our lifetimes, that AI can help us live long enough to live even longer still...
But it starts now, and the first step is admitting that AI is hard and accepting that you have no fucking clue how to do it. If you can't do that, you'll never be able to leave that sofa comfort zone. Have an idea? Try it. Code it up. Nothing will teach you more about what you do (and mostly don't) know than that. Share your results, positive or negative. Look for more ideas. Don't be attached to anything--wear failures with pride. Today's good idea is tomorrow's nonsense, and two years later may prove the solution after all. Stir the pot and dive in. Make it happen.
I promise you that by default the next thirty years of your life will go by in a blink and you will look around you horrified at how little progress has happened--and you'll wish you'd been working on the other side of the equation.
Comment author:somervta
09 September 2013 12:34:23AM
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He's ignoring everything Friendly AI Proponents have said on the issue , and is attacking a strawman instead of the real reasons FAI people think it's a problem.
Comment author:somervta
09 September 2013 01:13:10AM
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He doesn't really make any relevant points.
The closest is this:
Contrary to singularity b.s., the AI you invent isn't going to rewrite the laws of physics and destroy the universe before you can hit control-C. Basic space, time, and energy limitations will likely confound your laptop's ambitions to take over the world for quite some time--plenty of time for those who best understand it to toy with what it really takes to make it friendly
Which is really just an assertion that you won't get FOOM (I mean, no one thinks it'll take less time than it takes you to hit Ctrl-C, but that's just hyperbole for writing style). He doesn't argue for that claim, he doesn't address any of the arguments for FOOM (most notably and recently: IEM).
Comment author:brandyn
09 September 2013 01:26:32AM
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Ah, thanks, better understand your position now. I will endeavor to read IEM (if it isn't too stocked with false presuppositions from the get go).
I agree the essay did not endeavor to disprove FOOM, but let's say it's just wrong on that claim, and that FOOM is really a possibility -- then are you saying you'd rather let the military AI go FOOM than something homebrewed? Or are you claiming that it's possible to reign in military efforts in this direction (world round)? Or give me a third option if neither of those applies.
Comment author:somervta
09 September 2013 02:56:32AM
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AS to the 'third option', most work that I'm aware of falls into either educating people about AI risk, or trying to solve the problem before someone else builds an AGI. Most people advocate both.
Comment author:somervta
09 September 2013 02:53:17AM
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FAI proponents (Of which I am one, yes) tend to say that, ceteris paribus, an AGI which is constructed without first 'solving FAI'* will be 'Unfriendly', military or otherwise. This would be very very bad for humans and human values.
*There is significant disagreement over what exactly this consists of and how hard it will be.
Comment author:brandyn
09 September 2013 04:56:03AM
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Just to follow up, I'm seeing nothing new in IEM (or if it's there it's too burried in "hear me think" to find--Eliezer really would benefit from pruning down to essentials). Most of it concerns the point where AGI approaches or exceeds human intelligence. There's very little to support concern for the long ramp up to that point (other than some matter of genetic programming, which I haven't the time to address here). I could go on rather at length in rebuttal of the post-human-intelligence FOOM theory (not discounting it entirely, but putting certain qualitative bounds on it that justify the claim that FAI will be most fruitfully pursued during that transition, not before it), but for the reasons implied in the original essay and in my other comments here, it seems moot against the overriding truth that AGI is going to happen without FAI regardless--which means our best hope is to see AGI+FAI happen first. If it's really not obvious that that has to lead with AGI, then tell me why.
Does anybody really think they are going to create an AGI that will get out of their hands before they can stop it? That they will somehow bypass ant, mouse, dog, monkey, and human and go straight to superhuman? Do you really think that you can solve FAI faster or better than someone who's invented monkey-level AI first?
I feel most of this fear is risidual leftovers from the self-modifying symbolic-program singularity FOOM theories that I hope are mostly left behind by now. But this is just the point -- people who don't understand real AGI don't understand what the real risks are and aren't (and certainly can't mediate them).
Comment author:somervta
09 September 2013 05:11:17AM
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I feel most of this fear is risidual leftovers from the self-modifying symbolic-program singularity FOOM theories that I hope are mostly left behind by now. But this is just the point -- people who don't understand real AGI don't understand what the real risks are and aren't (and certainly can't mediate them).
Self-modifying AI is the point behind FOOM. I'm not sure why you're connecting self-modification/FOOM/singularity with symbolic programming (I assume you mean GOFAI), but everyone I'm aware of who thinks FOOM is plausible thinks it will be because of self-modification.
Comment author:brandyn
09 September 2013 05:47:29AM
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Yes, I understand that. But it matters a lot what premises underlie AGI how self-modification is going to impact it. The stronger fast-FOOM arguments spring from older conceptions of AGI. Imo, a better understanding of AGI does not support it.
Thanks much for the interesting conversation, I think I am expired.
Comment author:somervta
09 September 2013 05:04:09AM
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I don't think anyone is saying that an 'ant-level' AGI is a problem. The issue is with 'relatively-near-human-level' AGI. I also don't think there's much disagreement about whether a better understanding of AGI would make FAI work easier. People aren't concerned about AI work being done today, except inasmuch as it hastens better AGI work done in the future.
Comment author:brandyn
09 September 2013 02:00:21AM
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"I mean, no one thinks it'll take less time than it takes you to hit Ctrl-C" -- by the way, are you sure about this? Would it be more accurate to say "before you realize you should hit control-C"? Because it seems to me, if it aint goin' FOOM before you realize you should hit control-C (and do so) then.... it aint goin' FOOM.
Comment author:drethelin
09 September 2013 04:08:17AM
1 point
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More importantly: If someone who KNOWS how important stopping it is sitting at the button, then they're more likely to stop it, but if someone is like "it's getting more powerful and better optimized! Let's see how it looks in a week!" is in charge, then problems.
Comment author:brandyn
09 September 2013 04:35:59AM
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Well, then, I hope it's someone like you or me that's at the button. But that's not going to be the case if we're working on FAI instead of AGI, is it...
Comment author:brandyn
09 September 2013 02:06:35AM
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"The Intelligence Explosion Thesis says that an AI can potentially grow in capability on a timescale that seems fast relative to human experience due to recursive self-improvement. This in turn implies that strategies which rely on humans reacting to and restraining or punishing AIs are unlikely to be successful in the long run, and that what the first strongly self-improving AI prefers can end up mostly determining the final outcomes for Earth-originating intelligent life. " -- Eliezer Yudkowsky, IEM.
I.e., Eliezer thinks it'll take less time than it takes you to hit Ctrl-C. (Granted it takes Eliezer a whole paragraph to say what the essay captures in a phrase, but I digress.)
Comment author:somervta
09 September 2013 02:44:54AM
3 points
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Eliezer's position is somewhat more nuanced than that. He admits a possibility of a FOOM timescale on the order of seconds, but a timescale on the order of weeks/months/years is also in line with the IE thesis.
Comment author:gwern
06 September 2013 04:11:24PM
4 points
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What don't you understand? The 2 homo economicuses are aware that 'existence is suffering' especially when they are the butt of the humor, and rationally commit suicide.
Comment author:alex_zag_al
05 September 2013 09:10:07PM
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Has anyone here read up through ch18 of Jaynes' PT:LoS? I just spent two hours trying to derive 18.11 from 18.10. That step is completely opaque to me, can anybody who's read it help?
You can explain in a comment, or we can have a conversation. I've got gchat and other stuff. If you message me or comment we can work it out. I probably won't take long to reply, I don't think I'll be leaving my computer for long today.
EDIT: I'm also having trouble with 18.15. Jaynes claims that P(F|A_p E_aa) = P(F|A_p) but justifies it with 18.1... I just don't see how that follows from 18.1.
EDIT 2: It hasn't answered my question but there's online errata for this book: http://ksvanhorn.com/bayes/jaynes/ Chapter 18 has a very unfinished feel, and I think this is going to help other confusions I get into about it
Comment author:Kindly
13 September 2013 01:52:45PM
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A not-quite-rigorous explanation of the thing in 18.15:
E_aa is, by construction, only relevant to A. A_p was defined (in 18.1) to screen off all previous knowledge about A. So in fact, if we are given evidence E_aa but then given evidence A_p, then E_aa becomes completely irrelevant: it's no longer telling us anything about A, but it never told us anything about anything else. Therefore P(F|A_p E_aa) can be simplified to P(F|A_p).
Comment author:alex_zag_al
13 September 2013 04:04:25PM
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E_aa is, by construction, only relevant to A.
That's not true though. By construction, every part of it is relevant to A.
That doesn't mean it's not relevant to anything else. For example, It could be in this Bayes net: E_aa ---> A ----> F. Then it'd be relevant to F.
Although... thinking about that Bayes net might answer other questons...
Hmm. Remember that Ap screens A from everything. I think that means that A's only connection is to Ap - everything else has to be connected through Ap.
So the above Bayes net is really
Eaa --> Ap --> F
With another arrow from Ap to A.
Which would mean that Ap screens Eaa from F, which is what 18.15 says.
The above Bayes net represents an assumption that Eaa and F's only relevance to each other is that they're both evidence of A, which is often true I think.
Hmm. When I have some time I'm gonna draw Bayes nets to represent all of Jaynes' assumptions in this chapter, and when something looks unjustified, figure out what Bayes net structure would justify it.
In fact, I skipped over this before but this is actually recommended in the comments of that errata page I posted:
p. 554, eqn. (18.1): This definition cannot hold true for arbitrary propositions $E$; for example, what if $E$ implies $A$? This kind of problem occurs throughout the chapter. I don't think you can really discuss the $A_p$ distribution properly without explicitly introducing the notion of a sample space and organizing one's information about the sample space as a graphical model in which $A$ has a single parent variable $\theta$, with $A_p$ defined as the proposition $\theta = p$. For those unfamiliar with graphical models / Bayesian networks, I recommend the following book:
Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference (J. Pearl).
Framing effects (causing cognitive biases) can be thought of as a consequence
of the absence of logical transparency in System 1 thinking. Different mental
models that represent the same information are psychologically distinct, and
moving from one model to another requires thought. If this thought was not
expended, the equivalent models don't get constructed, and intuition doesn't
become familiar with these hypothetical mental models.
This suggests that framing effects might be counteracted by explicitly imagining
alternative framings in order to present a better sample to intuition; or,
alternatively, focusing on an abstract model that has abstracted away the
irrelevant details of the framing.
Comment author:MileyCyrus
05 September 2013 04:18:23PM
5 points
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If anyone wants to teach English in China, my school is hiring. The pay is higher than the market rate and the management is friendly and trustworthy. Must have a Bachelor's degree and a passport from and English speaking country. If you are at all curious, PM me for details.
The joke in that comic annoys me (and it's a very common one on SMBC, there must be at least five there with approximately the same setup). Human values aren't determined to align with the forces of natural selection. We happen to be the product of natural selection, and, yes, that made us have some values which are approximately aligned with long-term genetic fitness. But studying biology does not make us change our values to suddenly become those of evolution!
In other words, humans are a 'genie that knows, but doesn't care'. We have understood the driving pressures that created us. We have understood what they 'want', if that can really be applied here. But we still only care about the things which the mechanics of our biology happened to have made us care about, even though we know these don't always align with the things that 'evolution cares about.'
(Please if someone can think of a good way to say this all without anthropomorphising natural selection, help me. I haven't thought enough about this subject to have the clarity of mind to do that and worry that I might mess up because of such metaphors.)
Comment author:wadavis
06 September 2013 02:53:13PM
1 point
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Thank you.
All I need is hand held spray thermos to make Australia a viable working vacation.
I have a strong irrational aversion to spiders. This is much more acceptable than the home made flamer.
Comment author:MugaSofer
04 September 2013 07:52:30PM
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This may be an odd question, but what (if anything) is known on turning NPCs into PCs? (Insert your own term for this division here, it seems to be a standard thing AFAICT.)
I mean, it's usually easier to just recruit existing PCs, but ...
Comment author:blashimov
06 September 2013 01:13:26AM
2 points
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Take the leadership feat, and hope your GM is lazy enough to let you level them. More practically, is it a skills problem or as I would guess an agency problem? Can impress on them the importance of acting vs not? Lend them the Power of Accountability? 7 habits of highly effective people? Can you compliment them every time they show initiative? etc. I think the solution is too specific to individuals for general advice, nor do I know a general advice book beyond those in the same theme as those mentioned.
Comment author:topynate
04 September 2013 10:40:12PM
2 points
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Yet another article on the terribleness of schools as they exist today. It strikes me that Methods of Rationality is in large part a fantasy of good education. So is the Harry Potter/Sherlock Holmes crossover I just started reading. Alicorn's Radiance is a fair fit to the pattern as well, in that it depicts rapid development of a young character by incredible new experiences. So what solutions are coming out of the rational community? What concrete criteria would we like to see satisfied? Can education be 'solved' in a way that will sell outside this community?
Comment author:bramflakes
06 September 2013 03:43:02PM
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The characters in those fics are also vastly more intelligent and conscientious than average. True, current school environments are stifling for gifted kids, but then they are also a very small minority. Self-directed learning is counterproductive for not-so-bright, and attempts to reform schools to encourage "creativity" and away from the nasty test-based system tend to just be smoke-screens for any number of political and ideological goals. Like the drunk man and the lamppost, statistics and science are used for support rather than illumination, and the kids are the ones who suffer.
There are massive structural problems wracking the educational system but I wouldn't take the provincial perspectives of HPMoR or related fiction as good advice for the changes with the biggest marginal benefit.
Comment author:ChristianKl
08 September 2013 02:52:55PM
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What concrete criteria would we like to see satisfied?
I think that's a bad question. I don't think that every school should follow the same criteria. It's perfectly okay if different school teach different things.
http://www.kipp.org/ would be an educational project financed by Bill Gates which tries to use a lot of testing. On the other hand you have unschooling and enviroments like Sudbury Valley School. I don't think that every child has to learn the same way. Both ways are viable.
When it comes to the more narrow rationality community I think there more thought about building solutions that educate adults than about educating children.
If however something like Anki helps adults learn, there no real reason why the same idea can't help children as well.
Similar things go for the Credence game and predictionbook. If those tools can help adults to become more calibrated they probably can also help kids even if some modifications might be needed.
Without having the money to start a completly new school I think it's good to focus on building tool that build a particular skill.
Comment author:Ichneumon
04 September 2013 07:23:59PM
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In the effective animal altruism movement, I've heard a bit (on LW) about wild animal suffering- that is, since raised animals are vastly outnumbered by wild animals (who encounter a fair bit of suffering on a frequent basis), we should be more inclined to prevent wild suffering than worry about spreading vegetarianism.
That said, I think I've heard it sometimes as a reason (in itself!) not to worry about animal suffering at all, but has anyone tried to solve or come up with solutions for that problem? Where can I find those? Alternatively, are there more resources I can read on wild animal altruism in general?
since raised animals are vastly outnumbered by wild animals
That doesn't sound true if you weight by intelligence (which I think you should since intelligent animals are more morally significant). Surely the world's livestock outnumber all the other large mammals.
Comment author:Ichneumon
08 September 2013 12:09:12AM
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That's... a very good point, now that you mention it. Thanks for suggesting it! I looked into the comparisons in the USA (obviously, we're not only concerned about the USA. Some countries will have a higher population of wild or domestic, like Canada vs. Egypt. I have no idea if the US represents the average, but I figure it would be easiest to find information on.
That said; some very rough numbers:
Mule & black-tailed deer populations in USA: ~5 million (2003) (Source)
White-tailed deer population in USA: ~15 million (2010?) (Source)
Black bear population in USA: ~.5 million (2011) (Source)
That totals 21.5 million large wild animals- obviously, these aren't the only large wild animals in the USA, but I imagine that the rest added together wouldn't equal more than a quarter more than that- so I'll guess 25 million.
Domesticated animals:
Cattle population in USA: ~100 million (2011) (Source)
Hog & pig population in USA: ~120 million (2011) (Source)
Again, there are other large animals kept on commercial farms (goats, sheep), but they're probably not more than a quarter- so about 275 million large domesticated animals.
Looking at that, that does put "wild animal suffering" into perspective- if you accepted that philosophy, it would still only be worth >10% of the weight of domesticated animals. I had no idea.
Comment author:DanielLC
09 September 2013 04:13:36AM
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There's not a whole lot we can do now, so one thing I've heard suggested is to spread vegetarianism so that people will be more sympathetic to animals in general, and when we have the ability to engineer some retrovirus to make them suffer less or something like that, we'll care more about helping animals than not playing god.
Comment author:Ichneumon
16 September 2013 03:06:04AM
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Vegetarianism as seeding empathy, interesting- where have you heard that idea brought up? (That is, was it a book or somewhere online I could see more on?) Mass genetic engineering was the 'solution' I was wondering about especially. (Obviously it's a little impractical at the moment.)
Nuking the rainforests doesn't seem like a good solution (aside from the obvious impacts on OUR wellbeing!) for the same reasons that nuking currently-suffering human populations doesn't seem like a good solution. Of course, you may have been joking.
Comment author:DanielLC
16 September 2013 03:23:23AM
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I don't know exactly where I heard it, but I'm pretty sure it was somewhere on felicifia.org.
I am somewhat skeptical of wild animal suffering being bad enough to necessitate nuking the rainforsts, but I think we should try to find out exactly how good their lives are. If their suffering really does significantly outweigh their happiness, then I don't see how we could justify not nuking them. If an animal is suffering and isn't likely to get better, you euthanize it. If this applies to all the animals, you euthanize all of them.
Comment author:JMiller
04 September 2013 07:21:12PM
2 points
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Hi, I am taking a course in Existentialism. It is required for my degree. The primary authors are Sartre, de Bouvoir and Merleau-Ponty. I am wondering if anyone has taken a similar course, and how they prevented material from driving them insane (I have been warned this may happen). Is there any way to frame the material to make sense to a naturalist/ reductionist?
Comment author:hesperidia
08 September 2013 03:22:28AM
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If you do not have a preexisting tendency for depression as a result of taking ideas seriously, you probably have nothing to worry about. If you are already a reductionist materialist, you also probably have nothing to worry about. Millions of college students have taken courses in existentialism. Almost all of them are perfectly fine. Even if they're probably pouring coffee right now.
In LW terms, it may be useful to brush up on your metaethics, as such problems are usually most troublesome about these kinds of ideas in my social circle. Joy in the Merely Real may also be useful. I have no idea how your instructors will react if you cache these answers and then offer them up in class, though. I would suggest not doing that very often.
In the event that the material does overwhelm you beyond your ability to cope, or prevents you from functioning, counseling services/departments on college campuses are experienced in dealing with philosophy-related depression, anxiety, etc. The use of the school counseling services should be cheap/free with payment of tuition. I strongly suggest that you make use of them if you need them. More generally, talking about the ideas you are learning about with a study group, roommate, etc. will be helpful.
Eat properly. Sleep properly. Exercise. Keep up with your studying. Think about things that aren't philosophy every once in a while. Your mind will get stretched. Just take care of it properly to keep it supple and elastic. (That was a really weird metaphor.)
Comment author:pragmatist
06 September 2013 09:35:36AM
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When reading Merleau-Ponty it might help to also read the work of contemporary phenomenologists whose work is much more rooted in cognitive science and neuroscience. A decent example is Shaun Gallagher's book How the Body Shapes the Mind, or perhaps his introductory book on naturalistic phenomenology, which I haven't read. Gallagher has a more or less Merleau-Pontyesque view on a lot of stuff, but explicitly connects it to the naturalistic program and expresses things in a much clearer manner. It might help you read Merleau-Ponty sympathetically.
This could be a Lovecraft horror story: "The Existential Diary of JMiller."
Week 3: These books are maddeningly incomprehensible. Dare I believe that it all really is just nonsense?
Week 8: Terrified. Today I "saw" it - the essence of angst - and yet at the same time I didn't see it, and grasping that contradiction is itself the act of seeing it! What will become of my mind?
Week 12: The nothingness! The nothingness! It "is" everywhere in its not-ness. I can not bear it - oh no, "not", the nothingness is even constitutive of my own reaction to it - aieee -
(Here the manuscript breaks off. JMiller is currently confined in the maximum security wing of the Asylum for the Existentially Inane.)
Comment author:IlyaShpitser
08 September 2013 03:05:10AM
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I think existentialism is very compatible w/ naturalism/reductionism. Existentialists just use a weird vocabulary. But one of the main points, I think, is coping with an absent/insane deity.
Comment author:niceguyanon
04 September 2013 02:32:26PM
4 points
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I have updated on how important it is for Friend AI to succeed (more now). I did this by changing the way I thought about the problem. I used to think in terms of the chance of Unfriendly AI, this lead me to assign a chance of whether a fast, self-modifying, indifferent or FAI was possible at all.
Instead of thinking of the risk of UFAI, I started thinking of the risk of ~FAI. The more I think about it the more I believe that a Friendly Singleton AI is the only way for us humans to survive. FAI mitigates other existential risks of nature, unknowns, human cooperation (Mutually Assured Destruction is too risky), as well as hostile intelligences; both human and self-modifying trans-humans. My credence – that without FAI, existential risks will destroy humanity within 1,000 years – is 99%.
Is this flawed? If not then I'm probably really late to this idea, but I thought I would mention it because it's taken considerable time for me to see it like this. And if I were to explain the AI problem to someone who is uninitiated, I would be tempted to lead with the ~FAI is bad, rather than UFAI is bad. Why? Because intuitively, the dangers of UFAI feels "farther" than ~FAI. First people have to consider whether or not it's even possible for AI, then consider why its bad for for UFAI, this is a future problem. Whereas ~FAI is now, it feels nearer, it is happening – we have come close to annihilating ourselves before and technology is just getting better at accidentally killing us, therefore let's work on FAI urgently.
Comment author:ChristianKl
08 September 2013 03:07:35PM
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FAI mitigates other existential risks of nature, unknowns, human cooperation (Mutually Assured Destruction is too risky), as well as hostile intelligences; both human and self-modifying trans-humans. My credence – that without FAI, existential risks will destroy humanity within 1,000 years – is 99%.
I find it unlikely that you are well calibrated when you put your credence at 99% for a 1,000 year forecast.
Human culture changes over time. It's very difficult to predict how humans in the future will think about specific problems. We went in less than 100 years from criminalizing homosexual acts to lawful same sex marriage.
Could you imagine that everyone would adopt your morality in 200 or 300 hundred years? If so do you think that would prevent humanity from being doomed?
If you don't think so, I would suggest you to evaluate your own moral beliefs in detail.
Comment author:linkhyrule5
04 September 2013 01:50:42AM
2 points
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So.... Thinking about using Familiar, and realizing that I don't actually know what I'd do with it.
I mean, some things are obvious - when I get to sleep, how I feel when I wake up, when I eat, possibly a datadump from RescueTime... then what? All told that's about 7-10 variables, and while the whole point is to find surprising correlations I would still be very surprised if there were any interesting correlations in that list.
Suggestions? Particularly from someone already trying this?
Comment author:diegocaleiro
03 September 2013 02:47:33PM
13 points
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(mild exaggeration) Has anyone else transitioned from "I only read Main posts, to I nearly only read discussion posts, to actually I'll just take a look at the open threat and people who responded to what I wrote" during their interactions with LW?
To be more specific, is there a relevant phenomenon about LW or is it just a characteristic of my psyche and history that explain my pattern of reading LW?
Comment author:tgb
04 September 2013 12:34:32PM
10 points
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Selection bias alert: asking people whether they have transitioned to reading mostly discussion and then to mostly just open threads in an open thread isn't likely to give you a good perspective on the entire population, if that is in fact what you were looking for.
Comment author:drethelin
03 September 2013 07:41:27PM
10 points
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I read the sequences and a bunch of other great old main posts but now mostly read discussion. It feels like Main posts these days are either repetitive of what I've read before, simply wrong or not even wrong, or decision theory/math that's above my head. Discussion posts are more likely to be novel things I'm interested in reading.
Comment author:shminux
03 September 2013 06:34:08PM
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Honestly, I don't know why Main is even an option for posting. It should really be just an automatically labeled/generated "Best of LW" section, where Discussion posts with, say, 30+ karma are linked. This is easy to implement, and easy to do manually using the Promote feature until it is. The way it is now, it's mostly by people thinking that they are making an important contribution to the site, which is more of a statement about their ego than about quality of their posts.
Comment author:Username
03 September 2013 08:33:15PM
1 point
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I've definitely noticed this in my use of LW. I find that the open threads/media threads with their consistent high-quality novelty in a wide range of subject areas are far more enjoyable than the more academic main threads. Decision theory is interesting, but it's going to be hard to hold my attention for a 3,000 word post when there are tasty 200-word bites of information over here.
Comment author:diegocaleiro
03 September 2013 02:51:26PM
2 points
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I predict that some people will have been through the sequences, which are Main posts, but then mainly cared about discussion. I suspect it has to do with Morning Newspaper Bias - the bias of thinking that new stuff is more relevant, when actually it is just pointless to read most of the time, only scrambles your mind, and loses value very quickly.
Comment author:niceguyanon
03 September 2013 05:24:54PM
5 points
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Is there a name for, taking someone being wrong on A as evidence as being wrong on B? Is this a generally sound heuristic to have? In the case of crank magnetism; should I take someone's crank ideas, as evidence against an idea that is new and unfamiliar to me?
Comment author:Mestroyer
04 September 2013 03:27:09AM
8 points
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It's evidence against them being a person whose opinion is strong evidence of B, which means it is evidence against B, but it's probably weak evidence, unless their endorsement of B is the main thing giving it high probability in your book.
Comment author:Salemicus
03 September 2013 10:44:05PM
2 points
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I don't know if there's a name for this, but I definitely do it. I think it's perfectly legitimate in certain circumstances. For example, the more B is a subject of general dispute within the relevant grouping, and the more closely-linked belief in B is to belief in A, the more sound the heuristic. But it's not a short-cut to truth.
For example, suppose that you don't know anything about healing crystals, but are aware that their effectiveness is disputed. You might notice that many of the same people who (dis)believe in homeopathy also (dis)believe in healing crystals, that the beliefs are reasonably well-linked in terms of structure, and you might already know that homeopathy is bunk. Therefore it's legitimate to conclude that healing crystals are probably not a sound medical treatment - although you might revise this belief if you got more evidence. On the other hand, note that reversed stupidity is not truth - healing crystals being bunk doesn't indicate that conventional medicine works well.
The place where I find this heuristic most useful is politics, because the sides are well-defined - effectively, you have a binary choice between A and ~A, regardless of whether hypothetical alternative B would be better. If I stopped paying attention to current affairs, and just took the opposite position to Bob Crow on every matter of domestic political dispute, I don't think I'd go far wrong.
Comment author:shminux
03 September 2013 08:11:38PM
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I don't know if there is a name for it, but there ought to be one, since this heuristic is so common: the reliability prior of an argument is the reliability of the arguer. For example, one reason I am not a firm believer in the UFAI doomsday scenarios is Eliezer's love affair with MWI.
Comment author:Emily
03 September 2013 08:47:13AM
2 points
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Has anyone got a recommendation for a nice RSS reader? Ideally I'm looking for one that runs on the desktop rather than in-browser (I'm running Ubuntu). I still haven't found a replacement that I like for Lightread for Google Reader.
Comment author:Adele_L
02 September 2013 05:17:43PM
31 points
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There has recently been some speculation that life started on Mars, and then got blasted to earth by an asteroid or something. Molybdenum is very important to life (eukaryote evolution was delayed by 2 billion years because it was unavailable), and the origin of life is easier to explain if Molybdenum is available. The problem is that Molybdenum wasn't available in the right time frame on Earth, but it was on Mars.
Anyway, assuming this speculation is true, Mars had the best conditions for starting life, but Earth had the best conditions for life existing, and it is unlikely conscious life would have evolved without either of these planets being the way they are. Thus, this could be another part of the Great Filter.
Side note: I find it amusing that Molybdenum is very important in the origin/evolution of life, and is also element 42.
Comment author:curiousepic
05 September 2013 06:13:41PM
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3 points
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As someone pointed out to me when mentioning this to them, to be a candidate for Great Filter there would need to be something intrinsic about how planets are formed that cause these two types of environments to be mutually exclusive, else it seems like there isn't sufficient reduction in probability of their availability. Is this actually the case? Perhaps user:CellBioGuy can elucidate.
Comment author:CellBioGuy
15 September 2013 03:19:50AM
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Well it took a while for that summoning to actually take effect.
The point I was making that that is not necessarily a strong contender (as in many orders of magnitude) because of two things. One, all stars slowly increase in brightness as they age after settling down into their main sequence phase and their habitable zones thus sweep through the inner system over time (though this effect is much stronger for larger stars because they age and change faster). Secondly, its probable that most young smaller planets tend to have much more in the way of atmospheres than later in their lives just due to the fact that they are more geologically active then and haven't had time for the light molecules to be blasted away. And if terrestrial planets follow any sort of a power rule in their distribution of masses, there should be multiple Mars-size planets for every Earth sized planet.
At this point I would say that any speculation on the exact place and time of the origin of life is premature, that there's nothing to suggest that it didn't happen on Earth, but that there is little to suggest that it couldn't have happened elsewhere within our own solar system either even if we have little reason to think it had to (besides adding the necessity that it later moved to the very clement surface of the Earth, the only place in the solar system that can support a big high-bimoass biosphere like ours).
I honestly don't know much about the proposed molybdenum connection. Some cursory looking about the internet suggests that molybdenum is necessary for efficient fixation of nitrogen from the air into organic molecules by nitrogenase, the enzyme that does most of that biological activity on Earth. I would be surprised though if that were the only way it could go, rather than just the way it went here...
EDIT: upon further looking around, I am worried that the proposed molybdenum connection could be correlation rather than causation. Most sources claiming that the presence of lots of soluble molybdenum is a prerequesite for a big complicated biosphere seem to be looking for a reason for this to be the case and not talking much about the simpler possibility that that is simply correlated with the time at which the deeper water not immediately touching the atmosphere moved from a reducing environment to an oxidizing environment in which the soluble forms are more stable...
EDIT 2: By the way, seriously, do not listen to the stuff in the 'journal' of cosmology that Robin Hanson periodically uncritically posts about panspermia between star systems and early-universe biogenesis and diatoms in meteors. It's complete bullshit.
Comment author:lsparrish
02 September 2013 09:36:13PM
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Abstract
What makes money essential for the functioning of modern society? Through an experiment, we present evidence for the existence of a relevant behavioral dimension in addition to the standard theoretical arguments. Subjects faced repeated opportunities to help an anonymous counterpart who changed over time. Cooperation required trusting that help given to a stranger today would be returned by a stranger in the future. Cooperation levels declined when going from small to large groups of strangers, even if monitoring and payoffs from cooperation were invariant to group size. We then introduced intrinsically worthless tokens. Tokens endogenously became money: subjects took to reward help with a token and to demand a token in exchange for help. Subjects trusted that strangers would return help for a token. Cooperation levels remained stable as the groups grew larger. In all conditions, full cooperation was possible through a social norm of decentralized enforcement, without using tokens. This turned out to be especially demanding in large groups. Lack of trust among strangers thus made money behaviorally essential. To explain these results, we developed an evolutionary model. When behavior in society is heterogeneous, cooperation collapses without tokens. In contrast, the use of tokens makes cooperation evolutionarily stable.
Comment author:tut
03 September 2013 12:22:27PM
9 points
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Does this also work with macaques, crows or some other animals that can be taught to use money, but didn't grow up in a society where this kind of money use is taken for granted?
Comment author:Alsadius
04 September 2013 08:06:26PM
1 point
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Not strictly the same, but there have been monkey money experiments. And the results are hilarious. www.zmescience.com/research/how-scientists-tught-monkeys-the-concept-of-money-not-long-after-the-first-prostitute-monkey-appeared/
Comment author:Metus
02 September 2013 05:26:22PM
14 points
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The ancient Stoics apparently had a lot of techniques for habituation and changing cognitive processes. Some of those live on in the form of modern CBT. One of the techniques is to write a personal handbook with advice and sayings to carry around at all times as to never be without guidance from a calmer self. Indeed, Epictet advises to learn this handbook by rote to further internalisation. So I plan to write such a handbook for myself, once in long form with anything relevant to my life and lifestyle, and once in a short form that I update with things that are difficult at that time, be it strong feelings or being deluded by some biases.
In this book I intend to include a list of all known cognitive biases and logical fallacies. I know that some biases are helped by simply knowing them, does anyone have a list of those? And should I complete the books or have a clear concept of their contents, are you interested in reading about the process of creating one and possible perceived benefits?
I recently realized that I have something to protect (or perhaps a smaller version of the same concept). I also realized that I've been spending too much time thinking about solutions that should have have been obviously not workable. And I've been avoiding thinking about the real root problem because it was too scary, and working on peripheral things instead.
Does anyone have any advice for me? In particular, being able to think about the problem without getting so scared of it would be helpful.
Comment author:gwern
02 September 2013 05:37:05PM
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9 points
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To maybe help others out and solve the trust bootstrapping involved, I'm offering for sale <=1 bitcoin at the current Bitstamp price (without the usual premium) in exchange for Paypal dollars to any LWer with at least 300 net karma. (I would prefer if you register with #bitcoin-otc, but that's not necessary.) Contact me on Freenode as gwern.
EDIT: as of 9 September 2013, I have sold to 2 LWers.
Comment author:gwern
06 September 2013 02:25:04AM
4 points
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Paypal allows clawbacks for months, hence it's difficult to sell for Paypal to anyone who is not already in the -otc web of trust; but by restricting sales to high-karma LWers, I am putting their reputation here at risk if they scam me, which enables me to sell to them. Hence, they can acquire bitcoins & get bootstrapped into the -otc web of trust based on LW.
I used feed43 to create an rss feed out of recent predictions. Then I used feedrinse to filter out references to hpmor resulting in a safe feed. (Update: chaining unreliable services makes something even less reliable.)
You could do the same for the pages of recently judged or future or users you follow. I think feedrinse offers to merge feeds (into a "channel") before or after doing the filtering. But if you find someone new and just want to click on the username, you'll leave the safe zone. Even if you see someone you have processed, the username will take you to the unsafe page.
A better solution would be to write a greasemonkey script that modified each predictionbook page as you look at it.
The final feedrinse feed works in a couple of my browsers, but not chrome. Probably sending it through feedburner would fix it.
feed43 was finicky. The item search pattern was:
<li class="prediction{%}">{_}<p>{_}<span class='title'><a href="{%}">{%}</a></span>{%}</li>
The regexp I used in feedrinse was /hp.?mor/
It is case insensitive and manages to eliminate "HP MoR:", "[HPMOR]", etc. It won't work if they spell it out, or just predict "Harry is orange" without indicating which story they're predicting about. In that case, someone will probably leave a hpmor comment, but this doesn't see such comments.
Comment author:gwern
02 September 2013 08:56:07PM
5 points
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Since PB users' calibrations are not yet good enough to see the future, you can easily avoid MoR spoilers by subscribing to the email or RSS alerts for new chapters & reading them as appropriate.
Comment author:Adele_L
03 September 2013 04:08:46AM
3 points
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This is the obvious solution, but I want to reread what I've currently read, and have some time to think about the story and try creating an accurate causal model of events and such in the story as I read new!Adele material (Eliezer says it's supposed to be a solvable puzzle). I don't have time to do this right now, so in the meantime, I try to avoid spoilers.
Is there a good way to avoid HPMOR spoilers on prediction book?
If you are skilled in the art of Ruby, then yes. Otherwise, maybe. People (myself included) have been complaining about the lack of tagging/sorting system on PB for quite some time, but so far, no one has played the hero.
Comment author:Desrtopa
02 September 2013 05:05:45PM
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4 points
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The following query is sexual in nature, and is rot13'ed for the sake of those who would either prefer not to encounter this sort of content on Less Wrong, or would prefer not to recall information of such nature about my private life in future interactions.
V nz pheeragyl va n eryngvbafuvc jvgu n jbzna jub vf fvtavsvpnagyl zber frkhnyyl rkcrevraprq guna V nz. Juvyr fur cerfragyl engrf bhe frk nf "njrfbzr," vg vf abg lrg ng gur yriry bs "orfg rire," juvpu V ubcr gb erpgvsl.
Sbe pynevsvpngvba, V jbhyq fnl gung gur trareny urnygu naq fgnovyvgl bs bhe eryngvbafuvc vf rkgerzryl uvtu; guvf chefhvg vf n znggre bs erperngvba naq crefbany cevqr, abg n arprffnel vagreiragvba gb fnir gur eryngvbafuvc.
V'ir nyernql frnepurq bayvar sbe nyy gur vasbezngvba V pna svaq ba vzcebivat gur dhnyvgl bs frk, ohg fhpu vasbezngvba vf birejuryzvatyl rvgure gnetrgrq ng oevatvat crbcyr jvgu fbzr frevbhf qrsvpvrapl va gurve frk yvirf hc gb gur yriry bs abeznyvgl be fngvfslvat gurz gung gur abez vf yrff fcrpgnphyne guna gurl guvax naq gurl qba'g unir gb yvir hc gb vasyngrq fgnaqneqf, engure guna crbcyr gelvat gb npuvrir frk jnl bhg ba gur sne raq bs gur oryy pheir, be gnetrgrq ng crbcyr jub jbhyqa'g xabj jung "rzcvevpny onpxvat" jnf vs lbh uvg gurz va gur snpr jvgu vg.
V'z nyernql snzvyvne jvgu gur zbfg boivbhf, ybj unatvat sehvg vagreiragvbaf fhpu nf "pbageby fgerff," "qb xrtryf," rgp, naq jr pbzzhavpngr nobhg bhe frkhny cersreraprf naq npgvivgvrf rkgrafviryl. V'z nyfb nppbhagvat sbe snpgbef fhpu nf gur rzbgvbany pbagrkg bs bhe rapbhagref naq ubezbany plpyrf. Jung V'z ybbxvat sbe ng guvf cbvag ner rkprcgvbany zrnfherf sbe guvatf yvxr envfvat zl frkhny fgnzvan gb hahfhny yriryf, vapernfvat ure yriry bs nebhfny naq/be frafvgvivgl, naq fb sbegu. Obgu purzvpny naq abapurzvpny zrnfherf ner npprcgnoyr, ohg V jbhyq yvxr gb nibvq nalguvat yvxryl gb pneel qnatrebhf fvqr rssrpgf, naq vs cbffvoyr V jbhyq cersre abg gb erfbeg gb guvatf gung jbhyq erdhver zr gb trg n cerfpevcgvba sebz n qbpgbe juvyr qvfpybfvat gung V'z hfvat vg ba n cheryl erperngvbany onfvf.
Comment author:Desrtopa
02 September 2013 07:22:41PM
14 points
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Well, I'm flattered that you think my position is so enviable, but I also think this would be a pretty reasonable course of action for someone who made a billion dollars.
Comment author:drethelin
02 September 2013 05:21:17PM
1 point
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Practice makes perfect. I think a lot of good sex is intuitively reading your partner's signals and ramping things up/down with good timing in response to them. I think this is something you might be able to learn via logos but I think it's much more likely to be something you need to experience before you can get good at it. When to pull hair, when to thrust deeper, etc.
In general I and whoever I'm with have had more fun when I felt I had a good idea of what they wanted in the moment, which I think I've gotten better at mainly through practice.
Comment author:Desrtopa
02 September 2013 05:28:13PM
1 point
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I suspect that I can continue to improve with practice, but I'd like to be able to set out every option available to me on the table.
Even if I can attain the status of "best" without taking such extraordinary measures, this is something I'm genuinely competitive on, which at least to me means that simply taking first place isn't sufficient if I can still see avenues to top myself.
Comment author:iDante
02 September 2013 06:31:49PM
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3 points
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I learned about Egan's Law, and I'm pretty sure it's a less-precise restatement of the correspondence principle. Anyone have any thoughts on that similarity?
Comment author:gwern
02 September 2013 06:38:04PM
6 points
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The term is also used more generally, to represent the idea that a new theory should reproduce the results of older well-established theories in those domains where the old theories work.
Sounds good to me, although that's not what I would have guessed from a name like 'correspondence principle'.
Comment author:shminux
02 September 2013 08:54:58PM
2 points
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I suppose some minor difference is that this "law" is also applicable to meta-ethics, not just to physics. It's probably worth adding a link to the standard terminology to the LW wiki page.
Comment author:twanvl
02 September 2013 04:22:19PM
4 points
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Are old humans better than new humans?
This seems to be a hidden assumption of cryonics / transhumanism / anti-deathism: We should do everything we can to prevent people from dying, rather than investing these resources into making more or more productive children.
Assuming Rawls's veil of ignorance, I would prefer to be randomly born in a world where a trillion people lead billion-year lifespans than one in which a quadrillion people lead million-year lifespans.
Comment author:Alejandro1
03 September 2013 03:02:11AM
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9 points
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I agree, but is this the right comparison? Isn't this framing obscuring the fact that in the trillion-people world, you are much less likely to be born in the first place, in some sense?
Let us try this framing instead: Assume there are a very large number Z of possible different human "persons" (e.g. given by combinatorics on genes and formative experiences). There is a Rawlsian chance of 1/Z that a new created human will be "you". Behind the veil of ignorance, do you prefer the world to be one with X people living N years (where your chance of being born is X/Z) or the one with 10X people living N/10 years (where your chance of being born is 10X/Z)?
I am not sure this is the right intuition pump, but it seems to capture an aspect of the problem that yours leaves out.
Comment author:[deleted]
04 September 2013 08:25:51PM
4 points
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I agree, but is this the right comparison? Isn't this framing obscuring the fact that in the trillion-people world, you are much less likely to be born in the first place, in some sense?
Rawls's veil of ignorance + self-sampling assumption = average utilitarianism, Rawls's veil of ignorance + self-indication assumption = total utilitarianism (so to speak)? I had already kind-of noticed that, but hadn't given much thought to it.
Comment author:Mestroyer
03 September 2013 03:46:29AM
5 points
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Doesn't Rawls's veil of ignorance prove too much here though? If both worlds would exist anyway, I'd rather be born into a world where a million people lived 101 year lifetimes than a world where 3^^^3 people lived 100 year lifetimes.
Comment author:TrE
03 September 2013 05:47:05PM
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1 point
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So then, Rawls's veil has to be modified such that you are randomly chosen to be one of a quadrillion people. In scenario A, you live a million years. In scenario B, one trillion people live for one billion years each, the rest are fertilized eggs which for some reason don't develop.
The usual argument (which I agree with) is that "Death events have a negative utility". Once a human already exists, it's bad for them to stop existing.
Comment author:diegocaleiro
02 September 2013 10:30:45PM
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3 points
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Complement it with the fact that it costs about 800 thousand dollars to raise a mind, and an adult mind might be able to create value at rates high enough to continue existing. .
Makaulay Culkin and Haley Joel Osmend (or whatever spelling) notwithstanding, that is a good argument against children.
Comment author:twanvl
02 September 2013 10:44:53PM
2 points
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Complement it with the fact that it costs about 800 thousand dollars to raise a mind, and an adult mind might be able to create value at rates high enough to continue existing.
An adult, yes. But what about the elderly? Of course this is an argument for preventing the problems of old age.
that is a good argument against children.
Is it? It just says that you should value adults over children, not that you should value children over no children. To get one of these valuable adult minds you have to start with something.
Comment author:Mestroyer
03 September 2013 03:54:37AM
1 point
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How does that negative utility vary over time though? Because if it stays the same (or increases) then if we know now it's impossible to live 3^^^3 years, then disutility from death sooner than that is counterbalanced (or more than that) by averted disutility from dying later, meaning decisions made are basically the same as if you didn't disvalue death (or as if you valued it).
I think that part of the badness of death is the destruction of that person's accumulated experience. Thus the negative utility of death does indeed increase over time. However this is counterbalanced by the positive utility of their continued existence. If someone lives to 70 rather than 50 then we're happy because the 20 extra years of life were worth more than the worsening of the death event.
Comment author:Armok_GoB
15 September 2013 11:42:42PM
0 points
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In this case, it seems like the best policy is cryopreserving then letting them stay dead but extracting those experiences and inserting them in new minds.
Which sounds weird when you say it like that, but is functionally equivalent to many of the scenarios you would intuitively expect and find good, like radically improving minds and linking them into bigger ones before waking them up since anything else would leave them unable to meaningfully interact with anything anyway and human-level minds are unlikely to qualify for informed consent.
Comment author:Izeinwinter
02 September 2013 07:04:33PM
7 points
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Existing people take priority over theoretical people. Infinitely so. This should be obvious, as the reverse conclusion ends up with utter absurdities of the "Every sperm is sacred" variety.
Mad grin
Once a child is born, it has as much claim on our consideration as every other person in our light cone, but there is no obligation to have children. Not any specific child, nor any at all. Reject this axiom and you might as well commit suicide over the guilt of the billions of potentials children you could have that are never going to be born. Right now.
Even if you stay pregnant till you die/never masturbate, this would effectively not help at all - each conception moves one potential from the space of "could be" to to the space of "is", but at the same time eliminates at least several hundred million other potential children from the possibility space - that is just how human reproduction works.
Comment author:twanvl
02 September 2013 10:09:22PM
5 points
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Existing people take priority over theoretical people. Infinitely so.
Does this mean that I am free to build a doomsday weapon that kills everyone born after September 4th 2013 100 years from now, if that gets me a cookie?
This should be obvious, as the reverse conclusion ends up with utter absurdities of the "Every sperm is sacred" variety.
Not necessarily. It would merely be your obligation to have as many children as possible, while still ensuring that they are healthy and well cared for. At some point having an extra child will make all your children less well of.
Once a child is born, it has as much claim on our consideration as every other person in our light cone
Why is there a threshold at birth? I agree that it is a convenient point, but it is arbitrary.
Reject this axiom and you might as well commit suicide over the guilt of the billions of potentials children you could have that are never going to be born.
Why should I commit suicide? That reduces the number of people. It would be much better to start having children. (Note that I am not saying that this is my utility function).
The "infinitely so" part seems wrong, but the idea is that 4D histories which include a sentient being coming into existence, and then dying, are dispreferred to 4D world-histories in which that sentient being continues. Since the latter type of such histories may not be available, we specify that continuing for a billion years and then halting is greatly preferable to continuing for 10 years then halting. Our degree of preference for such is substantially greater than the degree to which we feel morally obligated to create more people, especially people who shall themselves be doomed to short lives.
Comment author:Alejandro1
03 September 2013 05:31:32AM
2 points
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The switch from consquentialist language ("4D histories which include… are dispreferred") to deontological language ("…the degree to which we feel morally obligated to create more people") is confusing. I agree that saving the lives of existing people is a stronger moral imperative than creating new ones, at the level of deontological rules and virtuous conduct which is a large part of everyday human moral reasoning. I am much less clear than when evaluating 4D histories I assign higher utility to one with few people living long lives than to one with more people living shorter lives. Actually, I tend towards the opposite intuition preferring a world with more people who live less (as long as the their lives are still well worth living, etc.)
Comment author:Armok_GoB
16 September 2013 12:01:35AM
0 points
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Not sure what part of this comment tree this belongs so just posting it here where it's likely to be seen:
It struck me with an image that it's not at all necessary that these tradeoffs are actually a thing once you dissolve the "person" abstraction; it's possible that something like the following is optimal: half the universe is dedicated to search the space of all experiences in order starting with the highest utility/most meaningful/lowest hanging fruit. This is then aggregated and metadata added and sent to the other half which is tiled with minimal context-experiencing units equivalent to individual peoples subjective whatever. in the end, you end up with equivalent to if you had half the number of individual people as if that was your only priority, each having the utility as a single person with the entire future history of half the universe dedicated to it, including context of history.
Thats the best case scenario. It's pretty certain SOME aspect or another of the fragile godshatter will disallow it obviously.
Comment author:diegocaleiro
02 September 2013 10:28:01PM
1 point
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Fighting (in the sense of arguing loudly, as well as showing physical strength or using it) seems to be bad the vast majority of time.
When is fighting good? When does fighting lead you to Win TDT style (which instances of input should trigger the fighting instinct and payoff well?)
There is an SSA argument to be made for fighting in that taller people are stronger, stronger people are dominant, and bigger skulls correlate with intelligence. But it seems to me that this factor alone is far, far away from being sufficient justification for fighting, given the possible consequences.
Comment author:drethelin
02 September 2013 10:37:27PM
1 point
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Fighting makes a lot more sense in a tribe or in small groups/individuals of humans than it does now. A big argument with someone now will very rarely keep you from starving and will probably never get you a child. On the other, showing dominance in a situation where the women around you are choosing a mate out of 5 guys, will get you a lot more laid.
Just had a discussion with my in-law about the singularity. He's a physicist and his immediate response was: There are no singularities. They appear mathematically all the time and it only means that there is another effect taking over. Correspondingly a quick google thus brought up this:
Comment author:Adele_L
03 September 2013 12:22:05AM
14 points
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On LW, 'singularity' does not refer to a mathematical singularity, and does not involve or require physical infinities of any kind. See Yudkowsky's post on the three major meanings of the term singularity. This may resolve your physicist friend's disagreement. In any case, it is good to be clear about what exactly is meant.
I would like recommendations for an Android / web-based to-do list / reminder application. I was happily using Astrid until a couple of months ago, when they were bought up and mothballed by Yahoo. Something that works with minimal setup, where I essentially stick my items in a list, and it tells me when to do them.
Comment author:wedrifid
16 September 2013 02:30:51PM
0 points
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I am seeking a mathematical construct to use as a logical coin for the purpose of making hypothetical decision theory problems slightly more aesthetically pleasing. The required features are:
Unbiased. It gives (or can be truncated or otherwise resolved to give) a 50/50 split on a boolean outcome.
Indexable. The coin can be used multiple times through a sequence number. eg. "The n-th digit of pi is even".
Intractable. The problem is too hard to solve. Either because there is no polynomial time algorithm to solve it or just because it is somewhat difficult and the 'n' supplied is ridiculous. eg. "The 3^^^3 digit of pi is even".
Provable or otherwise verifiable. When the result of the logical coin is revealed it should be possible to also supply a proof of the result that would convince a mathematician that the revealed outcome is correct.
Simple to refer to. Either there is a common name for the problem or a link to a description is available. The more well known or straightforward the better.
NP-complete problems have many of the desired features but I don't know off the top of my head any that can be used as indexable fair coin.
Comment author:Nornagest
21 September 2013 06:52:07AM
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1 point
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It looks to me like you want a cryptographically secure pseudo-random number generator restricted to the output space {0, 1} and with a known seed. That's unbiased and intractable pretty much by definition, indexable up to some usually very large periodicity, and typically verifiable and simple to refer to because that's standard practice in the security world.
There's plenty of PRNGs out there, and you can simply truncate or mod their outputs to give you the binary output you want; Fortuna looks like a strong candidate to me.
(I was going to suggest the Mersenne twister, which I've actually implemented before, but on further examination it doesn't look cryptographically strong.)
Comment author:pengvado
21 September 2013 11:13:14AM
3 points
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That works with caveats:
You can't just publish the seed in advance, because that would allow the player to generate the coin in advance. You can't just publish the seed in retrospect, because the seed is an ordinary random number, and if it's unknown then you're just dealing with an ordinary coin, not a logical one. So publish in advance the first k bits of the pseudorandom stream, where k > seed length, thus making it information-theoretically possible but computationally intractable to derive the seed; use the k+1st bit as the coin; and then publish the seed itself in retrospect to allow verification.
Possible desiderata that are still missing: If you take multiple coins from the same pseudorandom stream, then you can't allow verification until the end of the whole experiment. You could allow intermediate verification by committing to N different seeds and taking one coin from each, but that fails wedrifid's desideratum of a single indexable problem (which I assume is there to prevent Omega from biasing the result via nonrandom choice of seed?).
I can get both of those desiderata at once using a different protocol:
Pick a public key cryptosystem, a key, and a hash function with a 1-bit output. You need a cryptosystem where there's only one possible signature of any given input+key, i.e. one that doesn't randomize encryption. To generate the Nth coin: sign N, publish the signature, then hash the signature.
Comment author:bcoburn
16 September 2013 10:58:14PM
1 point
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My first idea is to use something based on cryptography. For example, using the parity of the pre-image of a particular output from a hash function.
That is, the parity of x in this equation:
f(x) = n, where n is your index variable and f is some hash function assumed to be hard to invert.
This does require assuming that the hash function is actually hard, but that both seems reasonable and is at least something that actual humans can't provide a counter example for. It's also relatively very fast to go from x to n, so this scheme is easy to verify.
Comment author:[deleted]
16 September 2013 03:07:32PM
0 points
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No candidates, but I'd like to point out that your unbiased requirement may perhaps be omitted, conditional on the implementation.
If you have a biased logical coin, you poll the coin twice until the results differ, and then you pick the last result when they do differ. That results in an unbiased logical coin.
My first instinct is to bet on properties of random graphs, but that's not my field.
Comment author:wedrifid
17 September 2013 12:55:01AM
0 points
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If you have a biased logical coin, you poll the coin twice until the results differ, and then you pick the last result when they do differ. That results in an unbiased logical coin.
Comment author:[deleted]
08 September 2013 02:03:23AM
0 points
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Why should an AI have to self-modify in order to be super-intelligent?
One argument for self-modifying FAI is that "developing an FAI is an extremely difficult problem, and so we will need to make our AI self-modifying so that it can do some of the hard work for us". But doesn't making the FAI self-modifying make the problem much more difficult, since how we have to figure out how to make goals stable under self-modification, which is also a very difficult problem?
The increased difficulty could be offset by the ability for the AI to undergo a "self-modifying foom", which results in a titanic amount of intelligence increase from relatively modest beginnings. But would it be possible for an AI to have a "knowledge-about-problem-solving foom" instead, where the AI increases its intelligence not by modifying itself, but by increasing the amount of knowledge it has about how to solve problems?
Here are some differences that come to mind between the two kinds of fooms:
A self-modification could change the AI's behavior in an arbitrary manner. Obtaining knowledge about problem-solving could only change the AI's behavior via metacognition.
A bad self-modification could easily destroy the AI's safety (unless we figure out how to fix this problem!). Obtaining knowledge about problem-solving would only destroy the AI's safety if the knowledge is substantially misleading. (An AI might somehow come to believe that it should only read pro-Green books, and then fail to take into account the fact that beliefs naively derived from reading pro-Green books will be biased towards Green.)
Any "method of being intelligent" can be turned into a self-modification. Not every method of being intelligent can effectively be turned into a piece of knowledge about problem-solving, because there's only a limited set of beliefs that the AI could act upon. (A non-self-modifying AI may be programmed to think about pizza upon believing the statement "I should think about pizza", but it is less likely to be programmed to adjust all its beliefs to be pro-Blue, without evidence, upon believing the statement "I should adjust all my beliefs to be pro-Blue, without evidence".)
Certainly self-modification has its advantages, but so does pure KAPS, so I'm confused about how it seems like literally everyone in the FAI community seems to believe self-modification is necessary for a strong AI.
Comment author:Vaniver
08 September 2013 05:29:17PM
1 point
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Why should an AI have to self-modify in order to be super-intelligent?
I'm not sure where the phrase "have to" is coming from. I don't think the expectation that we will build a self-modifying intelligence that becomes a superintelligence is because that seems like the best way to do it but because it's the easiest way to do it, and thus the one likely to be taken first.
In broad terms, the Strong AI project is expected to look like "humans build dumb computers, humans and dumb computers build smart computers, smart computers build really smart computers." Once you have smart computers that can build really smart computers, it looks like they will (in the sense that at least one institution with smart computers will let them, and then we have a really smart computer on our hands), and it seems likely that the modifications will occur at a level that humans are not able to manage effectively (so it really will be just smart computers making the really smart computers).
But doesn't making the FAI self-modifying make the problem much more difficult, since how we have to figure out how to make goals stable under self-modification, which is also a very difficult problem?
Yes. This is why MIRI is interested in goal stability under self-modification.
Comment author:[deleted]
09 September 2013 04:20:34AM
0 points
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I'm not sure where the phrase "have to" is coming from. I don't think the expectation that we will build a self-modifying intelligence that becomes a superintelligence is because that seems like the best way to do it but because it's the easiest way to do it, and thus the one likely to be taken first.
Yeah, I guess my real question isn't why we think an AI would have to self-modify; my real question is why we think that would be the easiest way to do things.
Comment author:[deleted]
09 September 2013 04:42:47AM
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0 points
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An AI is just code: If the AI has the ability to write code it has the ability to self modify.
If the AI has the ability to write code and the ability to replace parts of itself with that code, then it has the ability to self-modify. This second ability is what I'm proposing to get rid of. See my other comment.
Comment author:Vaniver
09 September 2013 04:58:39PM
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If the AI has the ability to write code and the ability to replace parts of itself with that code, then it has the ability to self-modify.
Unpack the word "itself."
(This is basically the same response as drethelin's, except it highlights the difficulty in drawing clear delineations between different kinds of impacts the AI can have on the word. Even if version A doesn't alter itself, it still alters the world, and it may do so in a way that bring around version B (either indirectly or directly), and so it would help if it knew how to design B.)
Comment author:[deleted]
10 September 2013 03:27:58AM
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Well, I'm imagining the AI as being composed of a couple of distinct parts—a decision subroutine (give it a set of options and it picks one), a thinking subroutine (give it a question and it tries to determine the answer), and a belief database. So when I say "the AI can't modify itself", what I mean more specifically is "none of the options given to the decision subroutine will be something that involves changing the AI's code, or changing beliefs in unapproved ways".
So perhaps "the AI could write some code" (meaning that the thinking algorithm creates a piece of code inside the belief database), but "the AI can't replace parts of itself with that code" (meaning that the decision algorithm can't make a decision to alter any of the AI's subroutines or beliefs).
Now, certainly an out-of-the-box AI would, in theory, be able to, say, find a computer and upload some new code onto it, and that would amount to self-modification. I'm assuming we're going to first make safe AI and then let it out of the box, rather than the other way around.
Comment author:hairyfigment
08 September 2013 05:59:49AM
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But would it be possible for an AI to have a "knowledge-about-problem-solving foom" instead, where the AI increases its intelligence not by modifying itself, but by increasing the amount of knowledge it has about how to solve problems?
My immediate reaction is, 'Possibly -- wait, how is that different? I imagine the AI would write subroutines or separate programs that it thinks will do a better job than its old processes. Where do we draw the line between that and self-modification or -replacement?'
If we just try to create protected code that it can't change, the AI can remove or subvert those protections (or get us to change them!) if and when it acquires enough effectiveness.
Comment author:[deleted]
09 September 2013 04:19:08AM
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Comment author:[deleted]
09 September 2013 04:19:08AM
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The distinction I have in mind is that a self-modifying AI can come up with a new thinking algorithm to use and decide to trust it, whereas a non-self-modifying AI could come up with a new algorithm or whatever, but would be unable to trust the algorithm without sufficient justification.
Likewise, if an AI's decision-making algorithm is immutably hard-coded as "think about the alternatives and select the one that's rated the highest", then the AI would not be able to simply "write a new AI … and then just hand off all its tasks to it"; in order to do that, it would somehow have to make it so that the highest-rated alternative is always the one that the new AI would pick. (Of course, this is no benefit unless the rating system is also immutably hard-coded.)
I guess my idea in a nutshell is that instead of starting with a flexible system and trying to figure out how to make it safe, we should start with a safe system and try to figure out how to make it flexible. My major grounds for believing this, I think, is that it's probably going to be much easier to understand a safe but inflexible system than it is to understand a flexible but unsafe system, so if we take this approach, then the development process will be easier to understand and will therefore go better.
Comment author:ChristianKl
09 September 2013 11:09:18AM
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Likewise, if an AI's decision-making algorithm is immutably hard-coded as "think about the alternatives and select the one that's rated the highest", then the AI would not be able to simply "write a new AI … and then just hand off all its tasks to it"; in order to do that, it would somehow have to make it so that the highest-rated alternative is always the one that the new AI would pick.
You basically say that the AI should be unable to learn to trust a process that was effective in the past to also be effective in the future. I think that would restrict intelligence a lot.
Comment author:[deleted]
10 September 2013 03:20:02AM
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Yeah, that's a good point. What I want to say is, "oh, a non-self-modifying AI would still be able to hand off control to a sub-AI, but it will automatically check to make sure the sub-AI is behaving correctly; it won't be able to turn off those checks". But my idea here is definitely starting to feel more like a pipe dream.
Comment author:Armok_GoB
16 September 2013 01:06:52AM
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Hmm, might still be something gleaned for attempting to steelman this or work in different related directions.
Edit; maybe something with an AI not being able to tolerate things it can't make certain proofs about? Problem is it'd have to be able to make those proofs about humans if they are included in its environment, and if they are not it might make UFAI there (Intuition pump; a system that consists of a program it can prove everything about, and humans that program asks questions to). Yea this doesn't seem very useful.
Comment author:ChristianKl
10 September 2013 05:51:37PM
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You can't really tell whether something that is smarter than yourself is behaving correctly. In the end a non-self-modifying AI checking on whether a self-modifying sub-AI is behaving correctly isn't much different from a safety perspective than a human checking whether the self modifying AI is behaving correctly.
Comments (376)
Another feature suggestion that will probably never be implemented: a check box for "make my up/down vote visible to the poster". The information required is already in the database.
I would have a preference for never seeing such notifications.
For what purpose? Can't one simply comment or private message if they feel its necessary?
Trivial inconvenience plus not wanting to be intrusive.
People sometimes say that we don't choose to be born. Is this false if I myself choose to have kids for the same reason my parents did (or at least to have kids if I was ever in the relevantly same situation?) If so, can I increase my measure by having more children for these reasons?
Technically yes, but obviously if this is part of your motivation for doing so then thats a meaningful difference unless your parents also understood TDT and had that as part of their reason, so if in fact they did not (which they probably didn't since it wasn't invented back then) then this answer is entirely useless.
Other forms of folk rule consequentialism (e.g. the Golden Rule) have existed for quite a long time.
Interesting point! This is quite a tricky problem that I've considered before. My current stance is we need to know more of the specifics and causal history of how those kind of rules are implemented in general before we can determine if they count, and there is also the possibility that once we've done that it turns out they "should" but our current formalizations won't... This is an interesting mostly unexplored (i think) subject that seems likely to spawn an fruitful discussion thou.
Who is this and what has he done with Robin Hanson?
The central premise is in allowing people to violate patents if it is not "intentional". While reading the article the voice in my head which is my model of Robin Hanson was screaming "Hypocrisy! Perverse incentives!" in unison with the model of Eliezer Yudkowsky which was also shouting "Lost Purpose!". While the appeal to total invasive surveillance slightly reduced the hypocrisy concerns it at best pushes the hypocrisy to a higher level in the business hierarchy while undermining the intended purpose of intellectual property rights.
That post seemed out of place on the site.
I found this interesting post over at lambda the ultimate about constructing a provably total (terminating) self-compiler. It looked quite similar to some of the stuff MIRI has been doing with the Tiling Agents thing. Maybe someone with more math background can check it out and see if there are any ideas to be shared?
The post: Total Self-Compiler via Superstitious Logics
This is the same basic idea as Benja's Parametric Polymorphism, with N in the post corresponding to kappa from parametric polymorphism.
The "superstition" is:
And from the section in Tiling Agents about parametric polymorphism (recommended if you want to learn about parametric polymorphism):
Anyway, it's interesting that someone else has a very similar idea for this kind of problem. But as mentioned in Tiling Agents, the "superstitious belief" seems like a bad idea for an epistemically rational agent.
It is neat that this problem is coming up elsewhere. It reminds me that MIRI's work could be relevant to people working in other sub-fields of math, which is a good sign and a good opportunity.
The Travelling Salesman Problem
In loading trucks for warehouses, some OR guys I know ran into the opposite problem- they encoded all the rules as constraints, found a solution, and it was way worse than what people were actually doing. Turns out it was because the people actually loading the trucks didn't pay attention to whether or not the load was balanced on the truck, or so on (i.e. mathematically feasible was a harder set of constraints than implementable because the policy book was harder than the actuality).
(I also don't think it's quite fair to call the OR approach 'punting', since we do quite a bit of optimization using heuristics.)
Anyone tried to use the outside view on our rationalist community?
I mean, we are not the first people on this planet who tried to become more rational. Who were our predecessors, and what happened to them? Where did they succeed and where they failed? What lesson can we take from their failures?
The obvious reply will be: No one has tried doing exactly the same thing as we are doing. That's technically true, but that's a fully general excuse against using outside view, because if you look into enough details, no two projects are exactly the same. Yet it is experimentally proved that even looking at sufficiently similar projects gives better estimates than just using the inside view. So, if there was no one exactly like us, who was the most similar?
I admit I don't have data on this, because I don't study history, and I have no personal experience with Objectivists (which are probably the most obvious analogy). I would probably put Objectivists, various secret societies, educational institutions, or self-help groups into the reference class. Did I miss something important? The common trait is that those people are trying to make their thinking better, avoid some frequent faults, and teach other people to do the same thing. Who would be your candidate for the reference group? Then, we could explore them one by one and guess what they did right and what they did wrong. Seems to me that many small groups fail to expand, but on the other hand, the educational institutions that succeed to establish themselves in the society, become gradually filled with average people and lose the will to become stronger.
I'd like to here point out a reference class that includes if I understood things right: the original buddhism movement, the academic community of france around the revolution, and the ancient greek philosophy tradition. More examples and a name for this reference class would be welcome.
I include this mainly to counterbalance the bias towards automatically looking for the kind of cynical reference classes typically associated with and primed by the concept of the outside view.
Looking at the reference class examples I came up with, there seems to be a tendency towards having huge geniuses at the start that nobody later could compete with, wich lead after a few centuries to dissolving into spinoff religions dogmatically accepting or even perverting the original ideals.
DISCLAIMER: This is just one reference class and the conclusions reached by that reference class, it was reached/constructed by trying to compensate for a predicted bias with tends to lead to even worse bias on average.
Thank you! This is the reference class I was looking for, so it is good to see someone able to overcome the priming done by, uhm, not exactly the most neutral people. I had a feeling that something like this is out there, but specific examples did not come into my mind.
The danger of not being able to "replicate" Eliezer seems rather realistic to me. Sure, there are many smart people in CFAR, and they will continue doing their great work... but would they be able to create a website like LW and attract many people if they had to start from zero or if for whetever reasons the LW website disappeared? (I don't know about how MIRI works, so I cannot estimate how much Eliezer would be replaceable there.) Also, for spreading x-rationality to other countries, we need local leaders there, if we want to have meetups and seminars, etc. There are meetups all over the world, but they are probably not the same thing as the communities in Bay Area and New York (although the fact that two such communities exist is encouraging).
I think the cult view is valuable to look at some issues.
When you have someone asking whether he should cut ties with his nonrational family members is valuable to keep in mind that's culty behavior.
Normal groups in our society don't encourage their members to cut family ties. Bad cults do those things. That doesn't mean that there's never a time where one should rationally advice someone to cut those ties, but one should be careful.
Given the outside view of how cults went to a place where people literally drunk kool aid I think it's important to encourage people to keep ties to people who aren't in the community.
Part of why Eliezer banned the basilisk might have been that having it more actively around would push LessWrong in the direction of being a cult.
There's already the promise for nearly eternal life in a FAI moderated heaven.
It always useful to investigate where cult like behaviors are useful and where they aren't.
I've seen a few attempts, mostly from outsiders. The danger involved there is an outsider has difficult picking the right reference class- you don't know how much they know about you, and how much they know about other things.
The things that the outside view has suggested we should be worried about that I remember (in rough order of frequency):
Being a cult.
Being youth-loaded.
Optimizing for time-wasting over goal-achieving.
Here are two critiques I remember from insiders that seem to rely on outside view thinking: Yvain's Extreme Rationality: It's Not That Great, patrissimo's Self-Improvement or Shiny Distraction: Why Less Wrong is anti-Instrumental Rationality. Eliezer's old posts on Every Cause Wants To Be A Cult and Guardians of Ayn Rand also seem relevant. (Is there someone who keeps track of our current battle lines for cultishness? Do we have an air conditioner on, and are we optimizing it deliberately?)
One of the things that I find interesting is in response to patrissimo's comment in September 2010 that LW doesn't have enough instrumental rationality practice, Yvain proposed that we use subreddits, and the result was a "discussion" subreddit. Now in September 2013 it looks like there might finally be an instrumental rationality subreddit. That doesn't seem particularly agile. (This is perhaps an unfair comparison, as CFAR has been created in the intervening time and is a much more promising development in terms of boosting instrumental rationality, and there are far more meetups now than before, and so on.)
There's also been a handful of "here are other groups that we could try to emulate," and the primary one I remember was calcsam's series on Mormons (initial post here, use the navigate-by-author links to find the others). The first post will be particularly interesting for the "outside view" analysis because he specifically discusses the features of the LDS church and LW that he thinks puts them in the same reference class (for that series of posts, at least).
The reason why I asked was not just "who can we be pattern-matched with?", but also "what can we predict from this pattern-matching?". Not merely to say "X is like Y", but to say "X is like Y, and p(Y) is true, therefore it is possible that p(X) is also true".
Here are two answers pattern-matching LW to a cult. For me, the interesting question here is: "how do cults evolve?". Because that can be used to predict how LW will evolve. Not connotations, but predictions of future experiences.
My impression of cults is that they essentially have three possible futures: Some of them become small, increasingly isolated groups, that die with their members. Others are viral enough to keep replacing the old members with new members, and grow. The most successful ones discover a way of living that does not burn out their members, and become religions. -- Extinction, virality, or symbiosis.
What determines which way a cult will go? Probably it's compatibility of long-term membership with ordinary human life. If it's too costly, if it requires too much sacrifice from members, symbiosis is impossible. The other two choices probably depend on how much effort does the group put into recruiting new members.
Having too many young people is some evidence of incompatibility. Perhaps the group requires a level of sacrifice that a university student can pay, but an employed father or mother with children simply cannot. What happens to the members who are unable to give the sacrifice? Well... in LW community nothing happens to anyone. How boring! It's not like I will become excommunicated if I stop reading the website every day. (Although, I may be excommunicated from the "top contributors, 30 days" list.) So the question is whether members who don't have too much time can still find the community meaningful, or whether they will leave voluntarily. In other words: Is LessWrong useful for an older person with a busy family life? -- If yes, symbiosis is possible; if no, it's probably virality as long as the website and rationality seminars keep attracting new people, or extinction if they fail to.
In this light, I am happy about recent Gunnar's articles, and I hope he will not be alone. Because the cult (or Mormonism) analogy suggests that this is the right way to go, for long-term sustainability.
The other analogy, with shining self-improvement seminars, seems more worrying to me. In self-improvement seminars, the speakers are not rewarded for actually helping people; they are rewarded for sounding good. (We know the names of some self-help gurus... but don't know the names of people who became awesome because of their seminars. Their references are all about their image, none about their product.) Is rationality advice similar?
This is an old problem, actually the problem discussed in the oldest article on LessWrong: if we can't measure rationality, we can't measure improvements in rationality... and then all we can say about CFAR rationality lessons is that they feel good. -- Unless perhaps the questionnaires given to people who did and didn't attend rationality minicamps showed some interesting results.
And by the way, whether we have or don't have an applied rationality subreddit, doesn't seem too important to me. The important thing is, whether we have or don't have applied rationality articles. (Those articles could as well be posted in Main or Discussion. And the new subreddit will not generate them automatically.)
Agreed. One of the reasons why I wrote a comment that was a bunch of links to other posts is because I think that there is a lot to say about this topic. Just "LW is like the Mormon Church" was worth ~5 posts in main.
A related question: is LessWrong useful for people who are awesome, or just people who want to become awesome? This is part of patrissimo's point: if you're spending an hour a day on LW instead of an hour a day exercising, you may be losing the instrumental rationality battle. If someone who used to be part of the LW community stops posting because they've become too awesome, that has unpleasant implications for the dynamics of the community.
I was interested in that because "difference between the time a good idea is suggested and the time that idea is implemented" seems like an interesting reference class.
Isn't this a danger that all online communities face? Those who procrastinate a lot online get a natural advantage against those who don't. Thus, unless the community is specifically designed against that (how exactly?), the procrastinators will become the elite.
(It's an implication: Not every procrastinator becomes a member of elite, but all members of elite are procrastinators.)
Perhaps we could make an exception for Eliezer, because for him writing the hundreds of articles was not procrastination. But unless writing a lot of stuff online is one's goal, then procrastination is almost a necessity to get a celebrity status on a website.
Then we should perhaps think about how to prevent this effect. A few months ago we had some concerned posts against "Eternal September" and stuff. But this is more dangerous, because it's less visible, it is a slow, yet predictable change, towards procrastination.
Yes, which is I think a rather good support for having physical meetups.
Agreed.
Note that many of the Eternal September complaints are about this, though indirectly: the fear is that the most awesome members of a discussion are the ones most aggravated by newcomers, because of the distance between them and newcomers is larger than the difference between a median member and a newcomer. The most awesome people also generally have better alternatives, and thus are more sensitive to shifts in quality.
Supporting this, I'll note that I don't see many posts from, say, Wei Dai or Salamon in recent history - though as I joined all of a month of ago take that with a dish of salt.
I wonder if something on the MIRI/CFAR end would help? Incentives on the actual researchers to make occasional (not too many, they do have more important things to do) posts on LessWrong would probably alleviate the effect.
Perhaps to some degree, different karma coefficients could be used to support what we consider useful on reflection (not just on impulse voting). For example, if a well-researched article generated more karma than a month of procrastinating while writing comments...
There is some support for this: articles in Main get 10× more karma than comments. But 10 is probably not enough, and also it is not obvious what exactly belongs to Main; it's very unclearly defined. Maybe there could be a Research subreddit where only scientific-level articles are allowed, and there the karma coefficient could be pretty high. (Alternatively, to prevent karma inflation, the karma from comments should be divided by 10.)
I don't think that "sounding good" is a accurate description of how people in the personal development field succeed.
Look at Tony Robbins who one of the most successful in the business. When you ask most people whether walking on hot coal is impressive they would tell you that it is. Tony manages to get thousands of people in a seminar to walk over hot coals.
Afterwards they go home and tell there friends about who they walked about hot coals. That impresses people and more people come to his seminars.
It not only that his talk sounds good but that he is able to provide impressive experiences.
On the other hand his success is also partly about being very good at building a network marketing structure that works.
But in some sense that not much different than the way universities work. They evidence that universities actually make people successful in life isn't that strong.
I don't think so. If you are a scientologist and believe in Xenu that reduces your compatibility with ordinary human life. At the same time it makes you more committed to the group if you are willing something to belong.
Opus Dei members wear cilice to make themselves uncomfortable to show that they are committed.
I think the fact that you don't see where many people as members of groups that need a lot of commitment is a feature of 20th century where mainstream society with institution such as television that are good at presenting a certain culture which everyone in a country has a shared identity.
At the moment all sort of groups like the Amnish or LDS that require more commitment of their members seem to grow. It could be that we have a lot more people as members of groups that require sacrifice in a hundred years than we have now.
I've been discussing the idea of writing a series of short story fanfics where Rapture, an underwater city from the computer game Bioshock run by an Objectivist/Libertarian, is run by a different political philosophy. Possibly as a collaborative project with different people submitting different short stories. Would anyone here be interested in reading or contributiggg to something like that?
Bruce Schneier wrote an article on the Guardian in which he argues that we should give plausibility to the idea that the NSA can hack more forms of encryption than we previously believed.
The security of bitcoin wallets rests on elliptic-curve cryptography. This could mean that the NSA has the power to turn the whole bitcoin economy into toast if bitcoin becomes a real problem for them on a political level.
What happened with the Sequence Reruns? I was getting a lot out of them. Were they halted due to lack of a party willing to continue posting them, or was a decision made to end them?
I'm pretty sure they halted because they had gone through the Sequences. Final Words, the last rerun post, was published after Go Forth and Create The Art!, which is listed as the last of the Craft and Community sequence, which was the last of the Major Sequences.
I never heard of such a decision and if it was made then it can be ignored because it was a bad decision. (Until power is applied to hinder implementation.)
If you value the sequence reruns then by all means start making the posts!
I personally get my 'sequence reruns' via the audio versions. Originally I used text to speech but now many of them have castify.
When I was a teenager I took a personality test as a requirement for employment at a retail clothing store. I didn't take it too seriously, I "failed" it and that was the end of my application. How do these tests work and how to you pass or fail them? Is there evidence that these tests can actually predict certain behaviors?
You cannot fail a personality test unless the person administering the test wants to filter out specific personality types that are similar to yours, for a process unrelated to the test itself (e.g. employment).
The thing is, most possible personalities seem to be considered undesirable by employers, and so many people simply resort to lying on these tests to present a favourable image to employers (basically: extrovert, conformist, "positive"/upbeat/optimistic, ambitious, responsible etc.). Looks like employers know about this, but don't care anyway, because they think that if you aren't willing to mold yourself into somebody else for the sake of the job, then you don't want the job enough and there are many others who do.
(Disclaimer: I'm an outsider to the employment process and might not know what I'm talking about. My impressions are gathered from job interview advice and job descriptions.)
You might be interested in the [Big Five] model of personality, which seems to be a rough scientific consensus, and is better empirically supported than other models. In particular, measures of conscientiousness have a relatively strong predictive value for things like grades, unemployment, crime, income, etc. Myers-Briggs-style tests that sort people into buckets ("You're an extrovert! You're an introvert!") are more common but don't seem to have a much predictive value except insofar as they reduce to something like the Big Five model.
However, from what I remember of applying to crappy jobs, you may not have taken a real test. I remember normal sounding items like, "I prefer large groups to small groups", mixed in with "trick" questions like, "If I saw my best friend stealing from the cash register, I would report him/her". I assume you got those right. Either way, you're expected to just lie and say you'd be the perfect, most hard-working employee ever and that cleaning toilets/selling shoes/washing cars is what you've dreamed of doing since you were five.
I've heard (second-hand, but the original source was a counselor for job-finding) that a trick for passing those, if it's a test that offers options from "Strongly disagree" to "Strongly agree", is to always pick one of the polarized ends ("Strongly" either). The idea seems to be that they'll prefer candidates who are less washy, have stronger convictions, etc.
This is rather off-topic to the board, but my impression is that there is some sympathy here for alternative theories on heart disease/healthy diets, etc. (which I share). Any for alternative cancer treatments? I don't find any that have been recommended to me as remotely plausible, but wonder if I'm missing something, if some disproving study if flawed, etc.
An Open Letter to Friendly AI Proponents by Simon Funk (who wrote the After Life novel):
So, in other words, absolutely no engagement with the actual ideas/arguments of the people the 'letter' is addressed to.
Clarify?
He's ignoring everything Friendly AI Proponents have said on the issue , and is attacking a strawman instead of the real reasons FAI people think it's a problem.
Trying to understand here. What's the strawman in this case?
Can you point me to an essay that addresses the points in this one?
He doesn't really make any relevant points.
The closest is this:
Which is really just an assertion that you won't get FOOM (I mean, no one thinks it'll take less time than it takes you to hit Ctrl-C, but that's just hyperbole for writing style). He doesn't argue for that claim, he doesn't address any of the arguments for FOOM (most notably and recently: IEM).
Ah, thanks, better understand your position now. I will endeavor to read IEM (if it isn't too stocked with false presuppositions from the get go).
I agree the essay did not endeavor to disprove FOOM, but let's say it's just wrong on that claim, and that FOOM is really a possibility -- then are you saying you'd rather let the military AI go FOOM than something homebrewed? Or are you claiming that it's possible to reign in military efforts in this direction (world round)? Or give me a third option if neither of those applies.
AS to the 'third option', most work that I'm aware of falls into either educating people about AI risk, or trying to solve the problem before someone else builds an AGI. Most people advocate both.
FAI proponents (Of which I am one, yes) tend to say that, ceteris paribus, an AGI which is constructed without first 'solving FAI'* will be 'Unfriendly', military or otherwise. This would be very very bad for humans and human values.
*There is significant disagreement over what exactly this consists of and how hard it will be.
Do you think people who can't implement AGI can solve FAI?
The problem of Friendliness can be worked on before the problem of AGI has been solved, yes
Just to follow up, I'm seeing nothing new in IEM (or if it's there it's too burried in "hear me think" to find--Eliezer really would benefit from pruning down to essentials). Most of it concerns the point where AGI approaches or exceeds human intelligence. There's very little to support concern for the long ramp up to that point (other than some matter of genetic programming, which I haven't the time to address here). I could go on rather at length in rebuttal of the post-human-intelligence FOOM theory (not discounting it entirely, but putting certain qualitative bounds on it that justify the claim that FAI will be most fruitfully pursued during that transition, not before it), but for the reasons implied in the original essay and in my other comments here, it seems moot against the overriding truth that AGI is going to happen without FAI regardless--which means our best hope is to see AGI+FAI happen first. If it's really not obvious that that has to lead with AGI, then tell me why.
Does anybody really think they are going to create an AGI that will get out of their hands before they can stop it? That they will somehow bypass ant, mouse, dog, monkey, and human and go straight to superhuman? Do you really think that you can solve FAI faster or better than someone who's invented monkey-level AI first?
I feel most of this fear is risidual leftovers from the self-modifying symbolic-program singularity FOOM theories that I hope are mostly left behind by now. But this is just the point -- people who don't understand real AGI don't understand what the real risks are and aren't (and certainly can't mediate them).
Self-modifying AI is the point behind FOOM. I'm not sure why you're connecting self-modification/FOOM/singularity with symbolic programming (I assume you mean GOFAI), but everyone I'm aware of who thinks FOOM is plausible thinks it will be because of self-modification.
Yes, I understand that. But it matters a lot what premises underlie AGI how self-modification is going to impact it. The stronger fast-FOOM arguments spring from older conceptions of AGI. Imo, a better understanding of AGI does not support it.
Thanks much for the interesting conversation, I think I am expired.
I don't think anyone is saying that an 'ant-level' AGI is a problem. The issue is with 'relatively-near-human-level' AGI. I also don't think there's much disagreement about whether a better understanding of AGI would make FAI work easier. People aren't concerned about AI work being done today, except inasmuch as it hastens better AGI work done in the future.
"I mean, no one thinks it'll take less time than it takes you to hit Ctrl-C" -- by the way, are you sure about this? Would it be more accurate to say "before you realize you should hit control-C"? Because it seems to me, if it aint goin' FOOM before you realize you should hit control-C (and do so) then.... it aint goin' FOOM.
More importantly: If someone who KNOWS how important stopping it is sitting at the button, then they're more likely to stop it, but if someone is like "it's getting more powerful and better optimized! Let's see how it looks in a week!" is in charge, then problems.
Well, then, I hope it's someone like you or me that's at the button. But that's not going to be the case if we're working on FAI instead of AGI, is it...
What do you think Ctrl-C does in this?
"The Intelligence Explosion Thesis says that an AI can potentially grow in capability on a timescale that seems fast relative to human experience due to recursive self-improvement. This in turn implies that strategies which rely on humans reacting to and restraining or punishing AIs are unlikely to be successful in the long run, and that what the first strongly self-improving AI prefers can end up mostly determining the final outcomes for Earth-originating intelligent life. " -- Eliezer Yudkowsky, IEM.
I.e., Eliezer thinks it'll take less time than it takes you to hit Ctrl-C. (Granted it takes Eliezer a whole paragraph to say what the essay captures in a phrase, but I digress.)
Eliezer's position is somewhat more nuanced than that. He admits a possibility of a FOOM timescale on the order of seconds, but a timescale on the order of weeks/months/years is also in line with the IE thesis.
How would you know that you have to press Crtl-C? What observation would you need to make?
Need help understanding the latest SMBC comic strip on rationality and microeconomics...
What don't you understand? The 2 homo economicuses are aware that 'existence is suffering' especially when they are the butt of the humor, and rationally commit suicide.
How do you pronounce "Yvain"?
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yvain and hover your mouse over the IPA pronunciation key.
Nooooo, I've been saying it wrong in my head the whole time.
Has anyone here read up through ch18 of Jaynes' PT:LoS? I just spent two hours trying to derive 18.11 from 18.10. That step is completely opaque to me, can anybody who's read it help?
You can explain in a comment, or we can have a conversation. I've got gchat and other stuff. If you message me or comment we can work it out. I probably won't take long to reply, I don't think I'll be leaving my computer for long today.
EDIT: I'm also having trouble with 18.15. Jaynes claims that P(F|A_p E_aa) = P(F|A_p) but justifies it with 18.1... I just don't see how that follows from 18.1.
EDIT 2: It hasn't answered my question but there's online errata for this book: http://ksvanhorn.com/bayes/jaynes/ Chapter 18 has a very unfinished feel, and I think this is going to help other confusions I get into about it
I've just looked and I have no idea either. If anyone wants to help there's a copy of the book here.
EDIT: The numbers in that copy are off by 1 from the book. "18.10" = "18-9" and so on.
A not-quite-rigorous explanation of the thing in 18.15:
E_aa is, by construction, only relevant to A. A_p was defined (in 18.1) to screen off all previous knowledge about A. So in fact, if we are given evidence E_aa but then given evidence A_p, then E_aa becomes completely irrelevant: it's no longer telling us anything about A, but it never told us anything about anything else. Therefore P(F|A_p E_aa) can be simplified to P(F|A_p).
That's not true though. By construction, every part of it is relevant to A.
That doesn't mean it's not relevant to anything else. For example, It could be in this Bayes net: E_aa ---> A ----> F. Then it'd be relevant to F.
Although... thinking about that Bayes net might answer other questons...
Hmm. Remember that Ap screens A from everything. I think that means that A's only connection is to Ap - everything else has to be connected through Ap.
So the above Bayes net is really
Eaa --> Ap --> F With another arrow from Ap to A.
Which would mean that Ap screens Eaa from F, which is what 18.15 says.
The above Bayes net represents an assumption that Eaa and F's only relevance to each other is that they're both evidence of A, which is often true I think.
Hmm. When I have some time I'm gonna draw Bayes nets to represent all of Jaynes' assumptions in this chapter, and when something looks unjustified, figure out what Bayes net structure would justify it.
In fact, I skipped over this before but this is actually recommended in the comments of that errata page I posted:
Yeah, I don't see how those make sense either.
Framing effects (causing cognitive biases) can be thought of as a consequence of the absence of logical transparency in System 1 thinking. Different mental models that represent the same information are psychologically distinct, and moving from one model to another requires thought. If this thought was not expended, the equivalent models don't get constructed, and intuition doesn't become familiar with these hypothetical mental models.
This suggests that framing effects might be counteracted by explicitly imagining alternative framings in order to present a better sample to intuition; or, alternatively, focusing on an abstract model that has abstracted away the irrelevant details of the framing.
If anyone wants to teach English in China, my school is hiring. The pay is higher than the market rate and the management is friendly and trustworthy. Must have a Bachelor's degree and a passport from and English speaking country. If you are at all curious, PM me for details.
Background: "The genie knows, but doesn't care" and then this SMBC comic.
The joke in that comic annoys me (and it's a very common one on SMBC, there must be at least five there with approximately the same setup). Human values aren't determined to align with the forces of natural selection. We happen to be the product of natural selection, and, yes, that made us have some values which are approximately aligned with long-term genetic fitness. But studying biology does not make us change our values to suddenly become those of evolution!
In other words, humans are a 'genie that knows, but doesn't care'. We have understood the driving pressures that created us. We have understood what they 'want', if that can really be applied here. But we still only care about the things which the mechanics of our biology happened to have made us care about, even though we know these don't always align with the things that 'evolution cares about.'
(Please if someone can think of a good way to say this all without anthropomorphising natural selection, help me. I haven't thought enough about this subject to have the clarity of mind to do that and worry that I might mess up because of such metaphors.)
For more on this topic, see for example these posts:
Liquid nitrogen user
Thank you. All I need is hand held spray thermos to make Australia a viable working vacation. I have a strong irrational aversion to spiders. This is much more acceptable than the home made flamer.
This may be an odd question, but what (if anything) is known on turning NPCs into PCs? (Insert your own term for this division here, it seems to be a standard thing AFAICT.)
I mean, it's usually easier to just recruit existing PCs, but ...
I suspect that finding people on the borderline between the categories and giving them a nudge is part of the solution to this problem.
What do you need PCs to do that NPCs cannot do? Zeroing in on the exact quality needed may make the problem easier.
Take the leadership feat, and hope your GM is lazy enough to let you level them. More practically, is it a skills problem or as I would guess an agency problem? Can impress on them the importance of acting vs not? Lend them the Power of Accountability? 7 habits of highly effective people? Can you compliment them every time they show initiative? etc. I think the solution is too specific to individuals for general advice, nor do I know a general advice book beyond those in the same theme as those mentioned.
Yet another article on the terribleness of schools as they exist today. It strikes me that Methods of Rationality is in large part a fantasy of good education. So is the Harry Potter/Sherlock Holmes crossover I just started reading. Alicorn's Radiance is a fair fit to the pattern as well, in that it depicts rapid development of a young character by incredible new experiences. So what solutions are coming out of the rational community? What concrete criteria would we like to see satisfied? Can education be 'solved' in a way that will sell outside this community?
The characters in those fics are also vastly more intelligent and conscientious than average. True, current school environments are stifling for gifted kids, but then they are also a very small minority. Self-directed learning is counterproductive for not-so-bright, and attempts to reform schools to encourage "creativity" and away from the nasty test-based system tend to just be smoke-screens for any number of political and ideological goals. Like the drunk man and the lamppost, statistics and science are used for support rather than illumination, and the kids are the ones who suffer.
There are massive structural problems wracking the educational system but I wouldn't take the provincial perspectives of HPMoR or related fiction as good advice for the changes with the biggest marginal benefit.
I think that's a bad question. I don't think that every school should follow the same criteria. It's perfectly okay if different school teach different things.
http://www.kipp.org/ would be an educational project financed by Bill Gates which tries to use a lot of testing. On the other hand you have unschooling and enviroments like Sudbury Valley School. I don't think that every child has to learn the same way. Both ways are viable.
When it comes to the more narrow rationality community I think there more thought about building solutions that educate adults than about educating children. If however something like Anki helps adults learn, there no real reason why the same idea can't help children as well.
Similar things go for the Credence game and predictionbook. If those tools can help adults to become more calibrated they probably can also help kids even if some modifications might be needed.
Without having the money to start a completly new school I think it's good to focus on building tool that build a particular skill.
I recently read Luminosity/radiance, was there ever a discussion thread on here about it?
SPOILERS for the end
V jnf obgurerq ol gur raq bs yhzvabfvgl. Abg gb fnl gung gur raq vf gur bayl rknzcyr bs cbbe qrpvfvba znxvat bs gur punenpgref, naq cresrpgyl engvbany punenpgref jbhyq or obevat naljnl. Ohg vg frrzf obgu ernfbanoyr nf fbzrguvat Oryyn jbhyq unir abgvprq naq n terng bccbeghavgl gb vapyhqr n engvbanyvgl yrffba. Anzryl, Oryyn artrypgrq gb fuhg hc naq zhygvcyl. Fur vf qribgvat yvzvgrq erfbheprf gbjneqf n irel evfxl cyna bs unygvat nyy uhzna zheqre ol inzcverf vzzrqvngryl. Fbyivat guvf vffhr vf cynhfvoyl rzbgvbanyyl eryrinag, ohg Oryyn fubhyq unir abgvprq gung vg qbrfa'g znggre nyy gung zhpu ubj lbh trg xvyyrq, vg vf ebhtuyl rdhnyyl gentvp ab znggre gur sbez bs qrngu vs vzzbegnyvgl rkpvfgf. Juvpu vg qbrf. Inzcverf qb abg ercerfrag n fvmrnoyr senpgvba bs nyy qrnguf. Nf n crefba va gur nccnerag cbfvgvba gb raq qrngu bar fubhyq or n ovg zber pnershy jvgu frphevgl. Bs pbhefr Oryyn naq pb. zvtug srry vaivapvoyr sbyybjvat gurve ivpgbel. Qba'g gurl unir npprff gb nyy gur zbfg cbjreshy jvgpurf? Vfa'g Nyyvaern(fc?) gur hygvzngr ahyyvsvre? Jryy, znlor. Ohg gur sbezre Iraghev unq n ybg ybatre gb cyna naq n ybg srjre pbafgenvagf ba gurve orunivbe, zbenyyl fcrnxvat, naq gurl frrzrq gb gernq pnershyyl. Vs gur Iraghev unq nyy gung svercbjre, jul qvq gurl obgure gb znvagnva perqvovyvgl jvgu gur trareny inzcver cbchyngvba? Guvf fubhyq or n erq synt. Oryyn vf va gur cbfvgvba gb raq qrngu pbaqvgvbany ba ure erznvavat va cbjre. Fur fubhyq or gernqvat yvtugyl urer naq qribgvat erfbheprf gb fbyivat gur ceboyrz bs flagurgvp inzcver sbbq nf dhvpxyl nf cbffvoyr. Nalguvat gung cbfrf n frphevgl guerng gb guvf vavgvngvir fubhyq or pbafvqrerq vafnavgl.
Do you mean the end of Luminosity or the end of Radience?
Radiance. edited.
Raqvat inzcver zheqref VF gernqvat yvtugyl: Vg'f n cbyvgvpny zbir. Gur orfg jnl gb trg uhznavgl abg gb ungr naq srne lbh vf gb or noyr gb pbasvqragyl gryy gurz gung gurl unir ab ernfba gb, naq gung lbh jnag bayl jung'f orfg sbe gurz. Zhpu nf Nzrevpn vf zvfgehfgrq va gur zvqqyr rnfg orpnhfr jr obzo jvgu unaq naq qvfgevohgr sbbq fhccyvrf jvgu gur bgure, crbcyr naq tbireazragf jvyy or zhpu yrff jvyyvat gb gehfg inzcverf vs gurl'er fgvyy xvyyvat crbcyr ng jvyy. Gur uhzna cbyvgvpny cbjref naq nyy gur uhznaf va gur jbeyq ner ahzrebhf rabhtu gung vs gur znfxrenqr oernxf, gur inzcverf jbhyq or va ZNWBE gebhoyr. Gur ovttrfg rkgnag guerng gb gur znfdhrenqr vf uhznaf orvat xvyyrq ol inzcverf. Fb fgbccvat xvyyvat uhznaf vf gur arkg fnsr fgrc jurgure lbh ner gelvat gb erirny inzcverf be pbaprny gurz.
In the effective animal altruism movement, I've heard a bit (on LW) about wild animal suffering- that is, since raised animals are vastly outnumbered by wild animals (who encounter a fair bit of suffering on a frequent basis), we should be more inclined to prevent wild suffering than worry about spreading vegetarianism.
That said, I think I've heard it sometimes as a reason (in itself!) not to worry about animal suffering at all, but has anyone tried to solve or come up with solutions for that problem? Where can I find those? Alternatively, are there more resources I can read on wild animal altruism in general?
That doesn't sound true if you weight by intelligence (which I think you should since intelligent animals are more morally significant). Surely the world's livestock outnumber all the other large mammals.
That's... a very good point, now that you mention it. Thanks for suggesting it! I looked into the comparisons in the USA (obviously, we're not only concerned about the USA. Some countries will have a higher population of wild or domestic, like Canada vs. Egypt. I have no idea if the US represents the average, but I figure it would be easiest to find information on.
That said; some very rough numbers:
Mule & black-tailed deer populations in USA: ~5 million (2003) (Source)
White-tailed deer population in USA: ~15 million (2010?) (Source)
Black bear population in USA: ~.5 million (2011) (Source)
Coyote population in USA: No good number found
Elk population in USA: ~1 million (2008) (Source)
That totals 21.5 million large wild animals- obviously, these aren't the only large wild animals in the USA, but I imagine that the rest added together wouldn't equal more than a quarter more than that- so I'll guess 25 million.
Domesticated animals:
Cattle population in USA: ~100 million (2011) (Source)
Hog & pig population in USA: ~120 million (2011) (Source)
Again, there are other large animals kept on commercial farms (goats, sheep), but they're probably not more than a quarter- so about 275 million large domesticated animals.
Looking at that, that does put "wild animal suffering" into perspective- if you accepted that philosophy, it would still only be worth >10% of the weight of domesticated animals. I had no idea.
Large mammals only? Is a domesticated cow smarter than a rat? A pigeon? Tough call.
There's not a whole lot we can do now, so one thing I've heard suggested is to spread vegetarianism so that people will be more sympathetic to animals in general, and when we have the ability to engineer some retrovirus to make them suffer less or something like that, we'll care more about helping animals than not playing god.
Another possibility: nuke the rainforests.
Vegetarianism as seeding empathy, interesting- where have you heard that idea brought up? (That is, was it a book or somewhere online I could see more on?) Mass genetic engineering was the 'solution' I was wondering about especially. (Obviously it's a little impractical at the moment.)
Nuking the rainforests doesn't seem like a good solution (aside from the obvious impacts on OUR wellbeing!) for the same reasons that nuking currently-suffering human populations doesn't seem like a good solution. Of course, you may have been joking.
I don't know exactly where I heard it, but I'm pretty sure it was somewhere on felicifia.org.
I am somewhat skeptical of wild animal suffering being bad enough to necessitate nuking the rainforsts, but I think we should try to find out exactly how good their lives are. If their suffering really does significantly outweigh their happiness, then I don't see how we could justify not nuking them. If an animal is suffering and isn't likely to get better, you euthanize it. If this applies to all the animals, you euthanize all of them.
Hi, I am taking a course in Existentialism. It is required for my degree. The primary authors are Sartre, de Bouvoir and Merleau-Ponty. I am wondering if anyone has taken a similar course, and how they prevented material from driving them insane (I have been warned this may happen). Is there any way to frame the material to make sense to a naturalist/ reductionist?
Ignorance isn't bliss. If the course brings you in contact with a few Ugh fields that you hold that should be a good.
If you do not have a preexisting tendency for depression as a result of taking ideas seriously, you probably have nothing to worry about. If you are already a reductionist materialist, you also probably have nothing to worry about. Millions of college students have taken courses in existentialism. Almost all of them are perfectly fine. Even if they're probably pouring coffee right now.
In LW terms, it may be useful to brush up on your metaethics, as such problems are usually most troublesome about these kinds of ideas in my social circle. Joy in the Merely Real may also be useful. I have no idea how your instructors will react if you cache these answers and then offer them up in class, though. I would suggest not doing that very often.
In the event that the material does overwhelm you beyond your ability to cope, or prevents you from functioning, counseling services/departments on college campuses are experienced in dealing with philosophy-related depression, anxiety, etc. The use of the school counseling services should be cheap/free with payment of tuition. I strongly suggest that you make use of them if you need them. More generally, talking about the ideas you are learning about with a study group, roommate, etc. will be helpful.
Eat properly. Sleep properly. Exercise. Keep up with your studying. Think about things that aren't philosophy every once in a while. Your mind will get stretched. Just take care of it properly to keep it supple and elastic. (That was a really weird metaphor.)
When reading Merleau-Ponty it might help to also read the work of contemporary phenomenologists whose work is much more rooted in cognitive science and neuroscience. A decent example is Shaun Gallagher's book How the Body Shapes the Mind, or perhaps his introductory book on naturalistic phenomenology, which I haven't read. Gallagher has a more or less Merleau-Pontyesque view on a lot of stuff, but explicitly connects it to the naturalistic program and expresses things in a much clearer manner. It might help you read Merleau-Ponty sympathetically.
This could be a Lovecraft horror story: "The Existential Diary of JMiller."
Week 3: These books are maddeningly incomprehensible. Dare I believe that it all really is just nonsense?
Week 8: Terrified. Today I "saw" it - the essence of angst - and yet at the same time I didn't see it, and grasping that contradiction is itself the act of seeing it! What will become of my mind?
Week 12: The nothingness! The nothingness! It "is" everywhere in its not-ness. I can not bear it - oh no, "not", the nothingness is even constitutive of my own reaction to it - aieee -
(Here the manuscript breaks off. JMiller is currently confined in the maximum security wing of the Asylum for the Existentially Inane.)
I think existentialism is very compatible w/ naturalism/reductionism. Existentialists just use a weird vocabulary. But one of the main points, I think, is coping with an absent/insane deity.
I have updated on how important it is for Friend AI to succeed (more now). I did this by changing the way I thought about the problem. I used to think in terms of the chance of Unfriendly AI, this lead me to assign a chance of whether a fast, self-modifying, indifferent or FAI was possible at all.
Instead of thinking of the risk of UFAI, I started thinking of the risk of ~FAI. The more I think about it the more I believe that a Friendly Singleton AI is the only way for us humans to survive. FAI mitigates other existential risks of nature, unknowns, human cooperation (Mutually Assured Destruction is too risky), as well as hostile intelligences; both human and self-modifying trans-humans. My credence – that without FAI, existential risks will destroy humanity within 1,000 years – is 99%.
Is this flawed? If not then I'm probably really late to this idea, but I thought I would mention it because it's taken considerable time for me to see it like this. And if I were to explain the AI problem to someone who is uninitiated, I would be tempted to lead with the ~FAI is bad, rather than UFAI is bad. Why? Because intuitively, the dangers of UFAI feels "farther" than ~FAI. First people have to consider whether or not it's even possible for AI, then consider why its bad for for UFAI, this is a future problem. Whereas ~FAI is now, it feels nearer, it is happening – we have come close to annihilating ourselves before and technology is just getting better at accidentally killing us, therefore let's work on FAI urgently.
So you want a god to watch over humanity -- without it we're doomed?
As of right now, yes. However, I could be persuaded otherwise.
I find it unlikely that you are well calibrated when you put your credence at 99% for a 1,000 year forecast.
Human culture changes over time. It's very difficult to predict how humans in the future will think about specific problems. We went in less than 100 years from criminalizing homosexual acts to lawful same sex marriage.
Could you imagine that everyone would adopt your morality in 200 or 300 hundred years? If so do you think that would prevent humanity from being doomed?
If you don't think so, I would suggest you to evaluate your own moral beliefs in detail.
A Singularity conference around a project financed by a Russian oligarch, seems to be mostly about uploading and ems.
Looks curious.
So.... Thinking about using Familiar, and realizing that I don't actually know what I'd do with it.
I mean, some things are obvious - when I get to sleep, how I feel when I wake up, when I eat, possibly a datadump from RescueTime... then what? All told that's about 7-10 variables, and while the whole point is to find surprising correlations I would still be very surprised if there were any interesting correlations in that list.
Suggestions? Particularly from someone already trying this?
(mild exaggeration) Has anyone else transitioned from "I only read Main posts, to I nearly only read discussion posts, to actually I'll just take a look at the open threat and people who responded to what I wrote" during their interactions with LW?
To be more specific, is there a relevant phenomenon about LW or is it just a characteristic of my psyche and history that explain my pattern of reading LW?
Selection bias alert: asking people whether they have transitioned to reading mostly discussion and then to mostly just open threads in an open thread isn't likely to give you a good perspective on the entire population, if that is in fact what you were looking for.
There would be far more selection bias if he asked about it outside an open thread, though.
I read the sequences and a bunch of other great old main posts but now mostly read discussion. It feels like Main posts these days are either repetitive of what I've read before, simply wrong or not even wrong, or decision theory/math that's above my head. Discussion posts are more likely to be novel things I'm interested in reading.
This describes how my use of LW has wound up pretty accurately.
I read the Sequences as they were posted; Main posts now rarely hold my interest the same way. Eliezer's writing is just better than most people's.
Honestly, I don't know why Main is even an option for posting. It should really be just an automatically labeled/generated "Best of LW" section, where Discussion posts with, say, 30+ karma are linked. This is easy to implement, and easy to do manually using the Promote feature until it is. The way it is now, it's mostly by people thinking that they are making an important contribution to the site, which is more of a statement about their ego than about quality of their posts.
I've definitely noticed this in my use of LW. I find that the open threads/media threads with their consistent high-quality novelty in a wide range of subject areas are far more enjoyable than the more academic main threads. Decision theory is interesting, but it's going to be hard to hold my attention for a 3,000 word post when there are tasty 200-word bites of information over here.
I predict that some people will have been through the sequences, which are Main posts, but then mainly cared about discussion. I suspect it has to do with Morning Newspaper Bias - the bias of thinking that new stuff is more relevant, when actually it is just pointless to read most of the time, only scrambles your mind, and loses value very quickly.
Is there a name for, taking someone being wrong on A as evidence as being wrong on B? Is this a generally sound heuristic to have? In the case of crank magnetism; should I take someone's crank ideas, as evidence against an idea that is new and unfamiliar to me?
Yes, but in many cases it's very weak evidence. Overweighing it leads to the “reversed stupidity” failure mode.
It's evidence against them being a person whose opinion is strong evidence of B, which means it is evidence against B, but it's probably weak evidence, unless their endorsement of B is the main thing giving it high probability in your book.
I don't know if there's a name for this, but I definitely do it. I think it's perfectly legitimate in certain circumstances. For example, the more B is a subject of general dispute within the relevant grouping, and the more closely-linked belief in B is to belief in A, the more sound the heuristic. But it's not a short-cut to truth.
For example, suppose that you don't know anything about healing crystals, but are aware that their effectiveness is disputed. You might notice that many of the same people who (dis)believe in homeopathy also (dis)believe in healing crystals, that the beliefs are reasonably well-linked in terms of structure, and you might already know that homeopathy is bunk. Therefore it's legitimate to conclude that healing crystals are probably not a sound medical treatment - although you might revise this belief if you got more evidence. On the other hand, note that reversed stupidity is not truth - healing crystals being bunk doesn't indicate that conventional medicine works well.
The place where I find this heuristic most useful is politics, because the sides are well-defined - effectively, you have a binary choice between A and ~A, regardless of whether hypothetical alternative B would be better. If I stopped paying attention to current affairs, and just took the opposite position to Bob Crow on every matter of domestic political dispute, I don't think I'd go far wrong.
I don't know if there is a name for it, but there ought to be one, since this heuristic is so common: the reliability prior of an argument is the reliability of the arguer. For example, one reason I am not a firm believer in the UFAI doomsday scenarios is Eliezer's love affair with MWI.
Has anyone got a recommendation for a nice RSS reader? Ideally I'm looking for one that runs on the desktop rather than in-browser (I'm running Ubuntu). I still haven't found a replacement that I like for Lightread for Google Reader.
I used to like liferea, but I don't have an up to date opinion as I switched to non-desktop RSS reading options.
There has recently been some speculation that life started on Mars, and then got blasted to earth by an asteroid or something. Molybdenum is very important to life (eukaryote evolution was delayed by 2 billion years because it was unavailable), and the origin of life is easier to explain if Molybdenum is available. The problem is that Molybdenum wasn't available in the right time frame on Earth, but it was on Mars.
Anyway, assuming this speculation is true, Mars had the best conditions for starting life, but Earth had the best conditions for life existing, and it is unlikely conscious life would have evolved without either of these planets being the way they are. Thus, this could be another part of the Great Filter.
Side note: I find it amusing that Molybdenum is very important in the origin/evolution of life, and is also element 42.
As someone pointed out to me when mentioning this to them, to be a candidate for Great Filter there would need to be something intrinsic about how planets are formed that cause these two types of environments to be mutually exclusive, else it seems like there isn't sufficient reduction in probability of their availability. Is this actually the case? Perhaps user:CellBioGuy can elucidate.
Well it took a while for that summoning to actually take effect.
The point I was making that that is not necessarily a strong contender (as in many orders of magnitude) because of two things. One, all stars slowly increase in brightness as they age after settling down into their main sequence phase and their habitable zones thus sweep through the inner system over time (though this effect is much stronger for larger stars because they age and change faster). Secondly, its probable that most young smaller planets tend to have much more in the way of atmospheres than later in their lives just due to the fact that they are more geologically active then and haven't had time for the light molecules to be blasted away. And if terrestrial planets follow any sort of a power rule in their distribution of masses, there should be multiple Mars-size planets for every Earth sized planet.
At this point I would say that any speculation on the exact place and time of the origin of life is premature, that there's nothing to suggest that it didn't happen on Earth, but that there is little to suggest that it couldn't have happened elsewhere within our own solar system either even if we have little reason to think it had to (besides adding the necessity that it later moved to the very clement surface of the Earth, the only place in the solar system that can support a big high-bimoass biosphere like ours).
I honestly don't know much about the proposed molybdenum connection. Some cursory looking about the internet suggests that molybdenum is necessary for efficient fixation of nitrogen from the air into organic molecules by nitrogenase, the enzyme that does most of that biological activity on Earth. I would be surprised though if that were the only way it could go, rather than just the way it went here...
EDIT: upon further looking around, I am worried that the proposed molybdenum connection could be correlation rather than causation. Most sources claiming that the presence of lots of soluble molybdenum is a prerequesite for a big complicated biosphere seem to be looking for a reason for this to be the case and not talking much about the simpler possibility that that is simply correlated with the time at which the deeper water not immediately touching the atmosphere moved from a reducing environment to an oxidizing environment in which the soluble forms are more stable...
EDIT 2: By the way, seriously, do not listen to the stuff in the 'journal' of cosmology that Robin Hanson periodically uncritically posts about panspermia between star systems and early-universe biogenesis and diatoms in meteors. It's complete bullshit.
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2013/08/21/1301888110
Does this also work with macaques, crows or some other animals that can be taught to use money, but didn't grow up in a society where this kind of money use is taken for granted?
Not strictly the same, but there have been monkey money experiments. And the results are hilarious. www.zmescience.com/research/how-scientists-tught-monkeys-the-concept-of-money-not-long-after-the-first-prostitute-monkey-appeared/
The ancient Stoics apparently had a lot of techniques for habituation and changing cognitive processes. Some of those live on in the form of modern CBT. One of the techniques is to write a personal handbook with advice and sayings to carry around at all times as to never be without guidance from a calmer self. Indeed, Epictet advises to learn this handbook by rote to further internalisation. So I plan to write such a handbook for myself, once in long form with anything relevant to my life and lifestyle, and once in a short form that I update with things that are difficult at that time, be it strong feelings or being deluded by some biases.
In this book I intend to include a list of all known cognitive biases and logical fallacies. I know that some biases are helped by simply knowing them, does anyone have a list of those? And should I complete the books or have a clear concept of their contents, are you interested in reading about the process of creating one and possible perceived benefits?
I'm also interested in hearing from you again about this project if you decide to not complete it. Rock on, negative data!
I recently realized that I have something to protect (or perhaps a smaller version of the same concept). I also realized that I've been spending too much time thinking about solutions that should have have been obviously not workable. And I've been avoiding thinking about the real root problem because it was too scary, and working on peripheral things instead.
Does anyone have any advice for me? In particular, being able to think about the problem without getting so scared of it would be helpful.
Talk about it with other people. Ask a good friend to sit down with you and listen to you talking about the issue.
To maybe help others out and solve the trust bootstrapping involved, I'm offering for sale <=1 bitcoin at the current Bitstamp price (without the usual premium) in exchange for Paypal dollars to any LWer with at least 300 net karma. (I would prefer if you register with #bitcoin-otc, but that's not necessary.) Contact me on Freenode as
gwern.EDIT: as of 9 September 2013, I have sold to 2 LWers.
Pardon me, but - what is the trust boostrapping involved?
Paypal allows clawbacks for months, hence it's difficult to sell for Paypal to anyone who is not already in the -otc web of trust; but by restricting sales to high-karma LWers, I am putting their reputation here at risk if they scam me, which enables me to sell to them. Hence, they can acquire bitcoins & get bootstrapped into the -otc web of trust based on LW.
Is there a good way to avoid HPMOR spoilers on prediction book?
I used feed43 to create an rss feed out of recent predictions. Then I used feedrinse to filter out references to hpmor resulting in a safe feed. (Update: chaining unreliable services makes something even less reliable.)
You could do the same for the pages of recently judged or future or users you follow. I think feedrinse offers to merge feeds (into a "channel") before or after doing the filtering. But if you find someone new and just want to click on the username, you'll leave the safe zone. Even if you see someone you have processed, the username will take you to the unsafe page.
A better solution would be to write a greasemonkey script that modified each predictionbook page as you look at it.
The final feedrinse feed works in a couple of my browsers, but not chrome. Probably sending it through feedburner would fix it.
feed43 was finicky. The item search pattern was:
<li class="prediction{%}">{_}<p>{_}<span class='title'><a href="{%}">{%}</a></span>{%}</li>
The regexp I used in feedrinse was /hp.?mor/
It is case insensitive and manages to eliminate "HP MoR:", "[HPMOR]", etc. It won't work if they spell it out, or just predict "Harry is orange" without indicating which story they're predicting about. In that case, someone will probably leave a hpmor comment, but this doesn't see such comments.
Since PB users' calibrations are not yet good enough to see the future, you can easily avoid MoR spoilers by subscribing to the email or RSS alerts for new chapters & reading them as appropriate.
This is the obvious solution, but I want to reread what I've currently read, and have some time to think about the story and try creating an accurate causal model of events and such in the story as I read new!Adele material (Eliezer says it's supposed to be a solvable puzzle). I don't have time to do this right now, so in the meantime, I try to avoid spoilers.
If you are skilled in the art of Ruby, then yes. Otherwise, maybe. People (myself included) have been complaining about the lack of tagging/sorting system on PB for quite some time, but so far, no one has played the hero.
The following query is sexual in nature, and is rot13'ed for the sake of those who would either prefer not to encounter this sort of content on Less Wrong, or would prefer not to recall information of such nature about my private life in future interactions.
V nz pheeragyl va n eryngvbafuvc jvgu n jbzna jub vf fvtavsvpnagyl zber frkhnyyl rkcrevraprq guna V nz. Juvyr fur cerfragyl engrf bhe frk nf "njrfbzr," vg vf abg lrg ng gur yriry bs "orfg rire," juvpu V ubcr gb erpgvsl.
Sbe pynevsvpngvba, V jbhyq fnl gung gur trareny urnygu naq fgnovyvgl bs bhe eryngvbafuvc vf rkgerzryl uvtu; guvf chefhvg vf n znggre bs erperngvba naq crefbany cevqr, abg n arprffnel vagreiragvba gb fnir gur eryngvbafuvc.
V'ir nyernql frnepurq bayvar sbe nyy gur vasbezngvba V pna svaq ba vzcebivat gur dhnyvgl bs frk, ohg fhpu vasbezngvba vf birejuryzvatyl rvgure gnetrgrq ng oevatvat crbcyr jvgu fbzr frevbhf qrsvpvrapl va gurve frk yvirf hc gb gur yriry bs abeznyvgl be fngvfslvat gurz gung gur abez vf yrff fcrpgnphyne guna gurl guvax naq gurl qba'g unir gb yvir hc gb vasyngrq fgnaqneqf, engure guna crbcyr gelvat gb npuvrir frk jnl bhg ba gur sne raq bs gur oryy pheir, be gnetrgrq ng crbcyr jub jbhyqa'g xabj jung "rzcvevpny onpxvat" jnf vs lbh uvg gurz va gur snpr jvgu vg.
V'z nyernql snzvyvne jvgu gur zbfg boivbhf, ybj unatvat sehvg vagreiragvbaf fhpu nf "pbageby fgerff," "qb xrtryf," rgp, naq jr pbzzhavpngr nobhg bhe frkhny cersreraprf naq npgvivgvrf rkgrafviryl. V'z nyfb nppbhagvat sbe snpgbef fhpu nf gur rzbgvbany pbagrkg bs bhe rapbhagref naq ubezbany plpyrf. Jung V'z ybbxvat sbe ng guvf cbvag ner rkprcgvbany zrnfherf sbe guvatf yvxr envfvat zl frkhny fgnzvan gb hahfhny yriryf, vapernfvat ure yriry bs nebhfny naq/be frafvgvivgl, naq fb sbegu. Obgu purzvpny naq abapurzvpny zrnfherf ner npprcgnoyr, ohg V jbhyq yvxr gb nibvq nalguvat yvxryl gb pneel qnatrebhf fvqr rssrpgf, naq vs cbffvoyr V jbhyq cersre abg gb erfbeg gb guvatf gung jbhyq erdhver zr gb trg n cerfpevcgvba sebz n qbpgbe juvyr qvfpybfvat gung V'z hfvat vg ba n cheryl erperngvbany onfvf.
Nal nqivpr jbhyq or nccerpvngrq.
To be honest, you sound a bit like a person who made a billion dollars and now tries to crowd-source a way to make ten billions. :-)
Well, I'm flattered that you think my position is so enviable, but I also think this would be a pretty reasonable course of action for someone who made a billion dollars.
Slow Sex seems to help move at least some people to move from good to great.
Does that entail sex literally done slowly? We could try it out, but that doesn't seem to be to her preferences.
Practice makes perfect. I think a lot of good sex is intuitively reading your partner's signals and ramping things up/down with good timing in response to them. I think this is something you might be able to learn via logos but I think it's much more likely to be something you need to experience before you can get good at it. When to pull hair, when to thrust deeper, etc.
In general I and whoever I'm with have had more fun when I felt I had a good idea of what they wanted in the moment, which I think I've gotten better at mainly through practice.
I suspect that I can continue to improve with practice, but I'd like to be able to set out every option available to me on the table.
Even if I can attain the status of "best" without taking such extraordinary measures, this is something I'm genuinely competitive on, which at least to me means that simply taking first place isn't sufficient if I can still see avenues to top myself.
I learned about Egan's Law, and I'm pretty sure it's a less-precise restatement of the correspondence principle. Anyone have any thoughts on that similarity?
Sounds good to me, although that's not what I would have guessed from a name like 'correspondence principle'.
I suppose some minor difference is that this "law" is also applicable to meta-ethics, not just to physics. It's probably worth adding a link to the standard terminology to the LW wiki page.
Are old humans better than new humans?
This seems to be a hidden assumption of cryonics / transhumanism / anti-deathism: We should do everything we can to prevent people from dying, rather than investing these resources into making more or more productive children.
Assuming Rawls's veil of ignorance, I would prefer to be randomly born in a world where a trillion people lead billion-year lifespans than one in which a quadrillion people lead million-year lifespans.
I agree, but is this the right comparison? Isn't this framing obscuring the fact that in the trillion-people world, you are much less likely to be born in the first place, in some sense?
Let us try this framing instead: Assume there are a very large number Z of possible different human "persons" (e.g. given by combinatorics on genes and formative experiences). There is a Rawlsian chance of 1/Z that a new created human will be "you". Behind the veil of ignorance, do you prefer the world to be one with X people living N years (where your chance of being born is X/Z) or the one with 10X people living N/10 years (where your chance of being born is 10X/Z)?
I am not sure this is the right intuition pump, but it seems to capture an aspect of the problem that yours leaves out.
Rawls's veil of ignorance + self-sampling assumption = average utilitarianism, Rawls's veil of ignorance + self-indication assumption = total utilitarianism (so to speak)? I had already kind-of noticed that, but hadn't given much thought to it.
Doesn't Rawls's veil of ignorance prove too much here though? If both worlds would exist anyway, I'd rather be born into a world where a million people lived 101 year lifetimes than a world where 3^^^3 people lived 100 year lifetimes.
So then, Rawls's veil has to be modified such that you are randomly chosen to be one of a quadrillion people. In scenario A, you live a million years. In scenario B, one trillion people live for one billion years each, the rest are fertilized eggs which for some reason don't develop.
I'd still choose B over A.
The usual argument (which I agree with) is that "Death events have a negative utility". Once a human already exists, it's bad for them to stop existing.
So every human has a right to their continued existence. That's a good argument. Thanks.
Complement it with the fact that it costs about 800 thousand dollars to raise a mind, and an adult mind might be able to create value at rates high enough to continue existing. .
Makaulay Culkin and Haley Joel Osmend (or whatever spelling) notwithstanding, that is a good argument against children.
An adult, yes. But what about the elderly? Of course this is an argument for preventing the problems of old age.
Is it? It just says that you should value adults over children, not that you should value children over no children. To get one of these valuable adult minds you have to start with something.
How does that negative utility vary over time though? Because if it stays the same (or increases) then if we know now it's impossible to live 3^^^3 years, then disutility from death sooner than that is counterbalanced (or more than that) by averted disutility from dying later, meaning decisions made are basically the same as if you didn't disvalue death (or as if you valued it).
I think that part of the badness of death is the destruction of that person's accumulated experience. Thus the negative utility of death does indeed increase over time. However this is counterbalanced by the positive utility of their continued existence. If someone lives to 70 rather than 50 then we're happy because the 20 extra years of life were worth more than the worsening of the death event.
In this case, it seems like the best policy is cryopreserving then letting them stay dead but extracting those experiences and inserting them in new minds.
Which sounds weird when you say it like that, but is functionally equivalent to many of the scenarios you would intuitively expect and find good, like radically improving minds and linking them into bigger ones before waking them up since anything else would leave them unable to meaningfully interact with anything anyway and human-level minds are unlikely to qualify for informed consent.
Existing people take priority over theoretical people. Infinitely so. This should be obvious, as the reverse conclusion ends up with utter absurdities of the "Every sperm is sacred" variety.
Mad grin
Once a child is born, it has as much claim on our consideration as every other person in our light cone, but there is no obligation to have children. Not any specific child, nor any at all. Reject this axiom and you might as well commit suicide over the guilt of the billions of potentials children you could have that are never going to be born. Right now.
Even if you stay pregnant till you die/never masturbate, this would effectively not help at all - each conception moves one potential from the space of "could be" to to the space of "is", but at the same time eliminates at least several hundred million other potential children from the possibility space - that is just how human reproduction works.
TL:DR; yes, yes they are. It is a silly question.
Does this mean that I am free to build a doomsday weapon that kills everyone born after September 4th 2013 100 years from now, if that gets me a cookie?
Not necessarily. It would merely be your obligation to have as many children as possible, while still ensuring that they are healthy and well cared for. At some point having an extra child will make all your children less well of.
Why is there a threshold at birth? I agree that it is a convenient point, but it is arbitrary.
Why should I commit suicide? That reduces the number of people. It would be much better to start having children. (Note that I am not saying that this is my utility function).
The "infinitely so" part seems wrong, but the idea is that 4D histories which include a sentient being coming into existence, and then dying, are dispreferred to 4D world-histories in which that sentient being continues. Since the latter type of such histories may not be available, we specify that continuing for a billion years and then halting is greatly preferable to continuing for 10 years then halting. Our degree of preference for such is substantially greater than the degree to which we feel morally obligated to create more people, especially people who shall themselves be doomed to short lives.
The switch from consquentialist language ("4D histories which include… are dispreferred") to deontological language ("…the degree to which we feel morally obligated to create more people") is confusing. I agree that saving the lives of existing people is a stronger moral imperative than creating new ones, at the level of deontological rules and virtuous conduct which is a large part of everyday human moral reasoning. I am much less clear than when evaluating 4D histories I assign higher utility to one with few people living long lives than to one with more people living shorter lives. Actually, I tend towards the opposite intuition preferring a world with more people who live less (as long as the their lives are still well worth living, etc.)
Not sure what part of this comment tree this belongs so just posting it here where it's likely to be seen:
It struck me with an image that it's not at all necessary that these tradeoffs are actually a thing once you dissolve the "person" abstraction; it's possible that something like the following is optimal: half the universe is dedicated to search the space of all experiences in order starting with the highest utility/most meaningful/lowest hanging fruit. This is then aggregated and metadata added and sent to the other half which is tiled with minimal context-experiencing units equivalent to individual peoples subjective whatever. in the end, you end up with equivalent to if you had half the number of individual people as if that was your only priority, each having the utility as a single person with the entire future history of half the universe dedicated to it, including context of history.
Thats the best case scenario. It's pretty certain SOME aspect or another of the fragile godshatter will disallow it obviously.
Yea, this was basically pseud tangential musings.
Fighting (in the sense of arguing loudly, as well as showing physical strength or using it) seems to be bad the vast majority of time.
When is fighting good? When does fighting lead you to Win TDT style (which instances of input should trigger the fighting instinct and payoff well?)
There is an SSA argument to be made for fighting in that taller people are stronger, stronger people are dominant, and bigger skulls correlate with intelligence. But it seems to me that this factor alone is far, far away from being sufficient justification for fighting, given the possible consequences.
If everyone agrees about how power is distributed fighting is unnecessary.
Fighting can be necessary when another person claims to have power that they actually don't have.
Fighting makes a lot more sense in a tribe or in small groups/individuals of humans than it does now. A big argument with someone now will very rarely keep you from starving and will probably never get you a child. On the other, showing dominance in a situation where the women around you are choosing a mate out of 5 guys, will get you a lot more laid.
Just had a discussion with my in-law about the singularity. He's a physicist and his immediate response was: There are no singularities. They appear mathematically all the time and it only means that there is another effect taking over. Correspondingly a quick google thus brought up this:
http://www.askamathematician.com/2012/09/q-what-are-singularities-do-they-exist-in-nature/
So my question is: What are the 'obvious' candidates for limits that take over before the all optimizable is optimized by runaway technology?
On LW, 'singularity' does not refer to a mathematical singularity, and does not involve or require physical infinities of any kind. See Yudkowsky's post on the three major meanings of the term singularity. This may resolve your physicist friend's disagreement. In any case, it is good to be clear about what exactly is meant.
Lack of cheap energy.
Ecological disruption.
Diminishing returns of computation.
Diminishing returns of engineering.
Inability to precisely manipulate matter below certain size thresholds.
All sorts of 'boring' engineering issues by which things that get more and more complicated get harder and harder faster than their benefits increase.
I would like recommendations for an Android / web-based to-do list / reminder application. I was happily using Astrid until a couple of months ago, when they were bought up and mothballed by Yahoo. Something that works with minimal setup, where I essentially stick my items in a list, and it tells me when to do them.
Wunderlist 2 has android (it only speaks english in the phone app, but it does portuguese in the normal online version.
it puts your tasks in the cloud so you can catch up with what you wrote in other services.
I'm amazed by David Allen's GTD at the moment, so I want to recommend it, despite still being on honeymoon effect.
Looking into Wunderlist now.
Don't worry. I read GTD several years ago, and stole plenty of stuff from it.
I want to tack onto this and ask for a solution that provides some privacy, that is where I can run my own server.
Is the layout for anyone else weird? The thread titles are more spaced out, like three times. Maybe something broke during my last Firefox upgrade.
It looks fine on Safari for the iPhone.
Site layout hasn't changed for me. Chrome on windows and safari on iphone.
I am seeking a mathematical construct to use as a logical coin for the purpose of making hypothetical decision theory problems slightly more aesthetically pleasing. The required features are:
NP-complete problems have many of the desired features but I don't know off the top of my head any that can be used as indexable fair coin.
Can anyone suggest some candidates?
It looks to me like you want a cryptographically secure pseudo-random number generator restricted to the output space {0, 1} and with a known seed. That's unbiased and intractable pretty much by definition, indexable up to some usually very large periodicity, and typically verifiable and simple to refer to because that's standard practice in the security world.
There's plenty of PRNGs out there, and you can simply truncate or mod their outputs to give you the binary output you want; Fortuna looks like a strong candidate to me.
(I was going to suggest the Mersenne twister, which I've actually implemented before, but on further examination it doesn't look cryptographically strong.)
That works with caveats: You can't just publish the seed in advance, because that would allow the player to generate the coin in advance. You can't just publish the seed in retrospect, because the seed is an ordinary random number, and if it's unknown then you're just dealing with an ordinary coin, not a logical one. So publish in advance the first k bits of the pseudorandom stream, where k > seed length, thus making it information-theoretically possible but computationally intractable to derive the seed; use the k+1st bit as the coin; and then publish the seed itself in retrospect to allow verification.
Possible desiderata that are still missing: If you take multiple coins from the same pseudorandom stream, then you can't allow verification until the end of the whole experiment. You could allow intermediate verification by committing to N different seeds and taking one coin from each, but that fails wedrifid's desideratum of a single indexable problem (which I assume is there to prevent Omega from biasing the result via nonrandom choice of seed?).
I can get both of those desiderata at once using a different protocol: Pick a public key cryptosystem, a key, and a hash function with a 1-bit output. You need a cryptosystem where there's only one possible signature of any given input+key, i.e. one that doesn't randomize encryption. To generate the Nth coin: sign N, publish the signature, then hash the signature.
My first idea is to use something based on cryptography. For example, using the parity of the pre-image of a particular output from a hash function.
That is, the parity of x in this equation:
f(x) = n, where n is your index variable and f is some hash function assumed to be hard to invert.
This does require assuming that the hash function is actually hard, but that both seems reasonable and is at least something that actual humans can't provide a counter example for. It's also relatively very fast to go from x to n, so this scheme is easy to verify.
No candidates, but I'd like to point out that your unbiased requirement may perhaps be omitted, conditional on the implementation.
If you have a biased logical coin, you poll the coin twice until the results differ, and then you pick the last result when they do differ. That results in an unbiased logical coin.
My first instinct is to bet on properties of random graphs, but that's not my field.
That'd work. I like it!
Why should an AI have to self-modify in order to be super-intelligent?
One argument for self-modifying FAI is that "developing an FAI is an extremely difficult problem, and so we will need to make our AI self-modifying so that it can do some of the hard work for us". But doesn't making the FAI self-modifying make the problem much more difficult, since how we have to figure out how to make goals stable under self-modification, which is also a very difficult problem?
The increased difficulty could be offset by the ability for the AI to undergo a "self-modifying foom", which results in a titanic amount of intelligence increase from relatively modest beginnings. But would it be possible for an AI to have a "knowledge-about-problem-solving foom" instead, where the AI increases its intelligence not by modifying itself, but by increasing the amount of knowledge it has about how to solve problems?
Here are some differences that come to mind between the two kinds of fooms:
Certainly self-modification has its advantages, but so does pure KAPS, so I'm confused about how it seems like literally everyone in the FAI community seems to believe self-modification is necessary for a strong AI.
I'm not sure where the phrase "have to" is coming from. I don't think the expectation that we will build a self-modifying intelligence that becomes a superintelligence is because that seems like the best way to do it but because it's the easiest way to do it, and thus the one likely to be taken first.
In broad terms, the Strong AI project is expected to look like "humans build dumb computers, humans and dumb computers build smart computers, smart computers build really smart computers." Once you have smart computers that can build really smart computers, it looks like they will (in the sense that at least one institution with smart computers will let them, and then we have a really smart computer on our hands), and it seems likely that the modifications will occur at a level that humans are not able to manage effectively (so it really will be just smart computers making the really smart computers).
Yes. This is why MIRI is interested in goal stability under self-modification.
Yeah, I guess my real question isn't why we think an AI would have to self-modify; my real question is why we think that would be the easiest way to do things.
you'd have to actively stop it from doing so. An AI is just code: If the AI has the ability to write code it has the ability to self modify.
If the AI has the ability to write code and the ability to replace parts of itself with that code, then it has the ability to self-modify. This second ability is what I'm proposing to get rid of. See my other comment.
Unpack the word "itself."
(This is basically the same response as drethelin's, except it highlights the difficulty in drawing clear delineations between different kinds of impacts the AI can have on the word. Even if version A doesn't alter itself, it still alters the world, and it may do so in a way that bring around version B (either indirectly or directly), and so it would help if it knew how to design B.)
Well, I'm imagining the AI as being composed of a couple of distinct parts—a decision subroutine (give it a set of options and it picks one), a thinking subroutine (give it a question and it tries to determine the answer), and a belief database. So when I say "the AI can't modify itself", what I mean more specifically is "none of the options given to the decision subroutine will be something that involves changing the AI's code, or changing beliefs in unapproved ways".
So perhaps "the AI could write some code" (meaning that the thinking algorithm creates a piece of code inside the belief database), but "the AI can't replace parts of itself with that code" (meaning that the decision algorithm can't make a decision to alter any of the AI's subroutines or beliefs).
Now, certainly an out-of-the-box AI would, in theory, be able to, say, find a computer and upload some new code onto it, and that would amount to self-modification. I'm assuming we're going to first make safe AI and then let it out of the box, rather than the other way around.
If an AI can't modify its own code it can just write a new AI that can.
My immediate reaction is, 'Possibly -- wait, how is that different? I imagine the AI would write subroutines or separate programs that it thinks will do a better job than its old processes. Where do we draw the line between that and self-modification or -replacement?'
If we just try to create protected code that it can't change, the AI can remove or subvert those protections (or get us to change them!) if and when it acquires enough effectiveness.
The distinction I have in mind is that a self-modifying AI can come up with a new thinking algorithm to use and decide to trust it, whereas a non-self-modifying AI could come up with a new algorithm or whatever, but would be unable to trust the algorithm without sufficient justification.
Likewise, if an AI's decision-making algorithm is immutably hard-coded as "think about the alternatives and select the one that's rated the highest", then the AI would not be able to simply "write a new AI … and then just hand off all its tasks to it"; in order to do that, it would somehow have to make it so that the highest-rated alternative is always the one that the new AI would pick. (Of course, this is no benefit unless the rating system is also immutably hard-coded.)
I guess my idea in a nutshell is that instead of starting with a flexible system and trying to figure out how to make it safe, we should start with a safe system and try to figure out how to make it flexible. My major grounds for believing this, I think, is that it's probably going to be much easier to understand a safe but inflexible system than it is to understand a flexible but unsafe system, so if we take this approach, then the development process will be easier to understand and will therefore go better.
You basically say that the AI should be unable to learn to trust a process that was effective in the past to also be effective in the future. I think that would restrict intelligence a lot.
Yeah, that's a good point. What I want to say is, "oh, a non-self-modifying AI would still be able to hand off control to a sub-AI, but it will automatically check to make sure the sub-AI is behaving correctly; it won't be able to turn off those checks". But my idea here is definitely starting to feel more like a pipe dream.
Hmm, might still be something gleaned for attempting to steelman this or work in different related directions.
Edit; maybe something with an AI not being able to tolerate things it can't make certain proofs about? Problem is it'd have to be able to make those proofs about humans if they are included in its environment, and if they are not it might make UFAI there (Intuition pump; a system that consists of a program it can prove everything about, and humans that program asks questions to). Yea this doesn't seem very useful.
You can't really tell whether something that is smarter than yourself is behaving correctly. In the end a non-self-modifying AI checking on whether a self-modifying sub-AI is behaving correctly isn't much different from a safety perspective than a human checking whether the self modifying AI is behaving correctly.
immutably hard-coding something in is a lot easier to say than to do.
Or it can write a new AI that's an improved version of itself and then just hand off all its tasks to it.