I think not understanding how this happen may be a very good predictor for losing.

If you did have a clear idea of how it works, and had a reason for it not to work on you specifically but work on others, then that may have been a predictor for it not working on you.

I think I have very clear idea of how those things work in general. Leaving aside very specific arguments, this relies on massive over updating you are going to do when an argument is presented to you, updating just the nodes that you are told to update, and by however much you are told to update them, when you can't easily see why not.