jmmcd comments on I attempted the AI Box Experiment again! (And won - Twice!) - Less Wrong Discussion
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I don't see that it was obvious, given that none of the AI players are actually superintelligent.
If the finding was that humans pretending to be AIs failed then this would weaken the point. As it happens the reverse is true.
The claim is that it was obvious in advance. The whole reason AI-boxing is interesting is that the AI successes were unexpected, in advance.