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army1987 comments on Mistakes repository - Less Wrong Discussion
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Hehe, that is a clever/amusing idea. But even if it's true that this constitutes a meaningful signal (there are plenty of ways to get friends that do not involve intelligence, kindness, or effectiveness that leave no visual cues - like extroversion), it's a signal so subtle that I don't think I would pick up on it.
Edit: It would work for simpler things though - we wouldn't be as impressed with David's intelligence if his muscles were as large as Goliath's.
I would have counted extroversion as in the same reference class as intelligence, happiness, kindness and effectiveness.
My reference class was "traits I would want in a friend". I don't really care about how often my friends feel the need to be alone.
Extroversion is probably correlated with happiness - but then again, if we accept introversion-extroversion as intrinsic personality traits, who is to say that a lonely, socially awkard extrovert won't give the same test results as a sad introvert? Correlation(extroversion, income) supposedly has a inverse U shaped curve.
Actually, the truth is I don't pick friends based on raw happiness either...it was shorthand for general emotional maturity. I wouldn't want to be less friends with someone if they were depressed, for example - it's just that I don't want anger, anxiety, insecurity, and other sorts of aggression directed at me, and people who frequently experience negative emotions are more likely to direct aggression at others.