The low rate of retention is extreme filtering.
You are arguing by definition here; please consider what could falsify your mental model of cults. If my local gym discovers only 1% of the people joining after New Years will stick around for more than a year, does that necessarily imply that the gym is ruled by a charismatic leader driving people away so as to maximize the proportion of unthinkingly loyal subordinates?
Low rate of retention is simply low rate of retention. This can be for a great many reasons, such as persecution, more attractive rival organizations, members solving their problems and leaving, or (way down the list) extreme filtering for loyalty which drives away otherwise acceptable members. How often do you see a cult leader going 'well, sure, we could have thousands more members if we wanted (people are pounding down the doors to convert), and majorly increase our donations and financial holdings, but gosh, we wouldn't want to sell out like that!'
Of course, like any organization, there's concerns about freeriding and wasting club goods and it'll seek to strike a balance between inclusiveness and parasite load; but a cult which has 'successfully' shed all but a few fanatics is a cult which is about to become history.
The cults try to get members to sever ties with the family and friends, for example
Recruiting through family and friends is a major strategy of cults - indeed, perhaps the only strategy which does not have abysmally low success rates.
Low rate of retention is a product of many reasons simultaneously, including the extreme weird stuff creeping people out. If your local gym is creepy, it will have lower retention rate, than same gym that is not creepy.
My mental model of failed retention includes the general low retention rate, in combination with the weird things that cult does creeping people out, on top of that.
...How often do you see a cult leader going 'well, sure, we could have thousands more members if we wanted (people are pounding down the doors to convert), and majorly increase o
Some old SIAI work of mine. Researching this was very difficult because the relevant religious studies area, while apparently completely repudiating most public beliefs about the subject (eg. the effectiveness of brainwashing, how damaging cults are, how large they are, whether that’s even a meaningful category which can be distinguished from mainstream religions rather than a hidden inference - a claim, I will note, which is much more plausible when you consider how abusive Scientology is to its members as compared to how abusive the Catholic Church has been etc), prefer to publish their research in book form, which makes it very hard to review any of it. Some of the key citation were papers - but the cult panic was so long ago that most of them are not online or have been digitized! I recently added some cites and realized I had not touched the draft in a year; so while this collection of notes is not really up to my preferred standards, I’m simply posting it for what it’s worth. (One lesson to take away from this is that controlling uploaded human brains will not be nearly as simple & easy as applying classic ‘brainwashing’ strategies - because those don’t actually work.)
Reading through the literature and especially the law review articles (courts flirted disconcertingly much with licensing kidnapping and abandoning free speech), I was reminded very heavily - and not in a good way - of the War on Terror.
Old American POW studies:
Started the myth of effective brain-washing. But in practice, cult attrition rates are very high! (As makes sense: if cults did not have high attrition rates, they would long ago have dominated the world due to exponential growth.) This attrition claim is made all over the literature, with some example citations being:
a back of the envelope estimate for Scientology by Steve Plakos in 2000:
Iannaccone 2003, “The Market for Martyrs” (quasi-review)
Singer in particular has been heavily criticized; “Cult/Brainwashing Cases and Freedom of Religion”, Richardson 1991:
“Overcoming The Bondage Of Victimization: A Critical Evaluation of Cult Mind Control Theories”, Bob and Gretchen Passantino Cornerstone Magazine 1994:
Gomes, Unmasking the Cults (Wikipedia quote):
“Psychological Manipulation and Society”, book review of Spying in Guruland: Inside Britain’s Cults, Shaw 1994
Anthony & Robbins 1992, “Law, Social Science and the ‘Brainwashing’ Exception to the First Amendment”:
“Brainwashed! Scholars of cults accuse each other of bad faith”, by Charlotte Allen, Lingua Franca Dec/Jan 1998: