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solipsist comments on What did governments get right? Gotta list them all! - Less Wrong Discussion

6 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 18 September 2013 12:59PM

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Comment author: solipsist 18 September 2013 07:20:12PM 13 points [-]

7 years from discovery of nuclear fission to creation of atomic bombs.

68 years after creation of atomic bombs without the world ending.

Comment author: ShardPhoenix 19 September 2013 01:11:31AM 3 points [-]

I think we have to take anthropic effects into account for this one - even if there is total nuclear war in most possible worlds, only in the ones where it doesn't happen (perhaps by luck) will most of us still be around to give anyone credit for stopping it.

Comment author: Nornagest 19 September 2013 11:34:28PM *  6 points [-]

I wouldn't give anthropics too much credit here. The sources I've read place direct fatalities from total nuclear war in the hundreds of millions, with deaths from secondary effects (mostly global disruption of food supplies) possibly in the low billions: an unprecedented scale of fatality, but not an extinction-level event.

(Note however that the OTA study linked through the FAS site took place in the late Seventies, a relative low before the Reagan-era arms buildup.)