“Are people really focused on the right things? One of the things I thought was amazing is that if you solve cancer, you’d add about three years to people’s average life expectancy,” Page said. “We think of solving cancer as this huge thing that’ll totally change the world. But when you really take a step back and look at it, yeah, there are many, many tragic cases of cancer, and it’s very, very sad, but in the aggregate, it’s not as big an advance as you might think.” (Larry Page as quoted in the Time article)
This is something like the ecological fallacy. In the aggregate, we lose 3 years of potential life because of cancer. No big deal. Looking at the individual level, most of us had close friends who had lost 30 years of potential life.
Looking at the individual level, most of us had close friends who had lost 30 years of potential life.
Suppose you could either extend the life of one close friend by 30 years, or the lives of all of your friends by 10 years. (Hopefully you have more than three friends.) Page is pointing out that the second could possibly be on the table, but it wouldn't be obvious because we're so used to treating rare serious diseases instead of making everyone a bit healthier or live a bit longer on the margins.
Google's announcement, Time magazine rather sensationalist headline.
In any case, it's nice to know that Google set its sights to "challenge ... aging and associated diseases". Apple's Tim Cook:
For too many of our friends and family, life has been cut short or the quality of their life is too often lacking. Art is one of the crazy ones who thinks it doesn’t have to be this way.
One more step towards "world optimization".