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Oscar_Cunningham comments on Instinctive Frequentists, the Outside View, and de-Biasing - Less Wrong Discussion
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Why do people keep on replying like this to my comments? It doesn't make any sense. If I'm arguing for B and you're not arguing for A then it doesn't matter if P(A)>P(B). It can still be the case that P(B) is high!
EDIT: Especially if A is a know historical fact which we have easy access to. If P(A)=1 then that's no restriction on B at all!