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Viliam_Bur comments on Instinctive Frequentists, the Outside View, and de-Biasing - Less Wrong Discussion
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Not sure if I am rationalizing now, but this explanation seems compatible with the official one; or more precisely, it is a subset. As in:
Q: Why do people think that more complex explanations have higher probability, when mathematically it is the other way round?
A: Because detailed stories feel more credible.
Q: Okay, but why do detailed stories feel more credible?
A: Because detailed stories are often told by people who have more information about the subject.