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Manfred comments on Open Thread, September 23-29, 2013 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Hm, the trouble is that this doesn't account for the insulating effect of air, or a thin cool surface layer. A layer of air can reflect a lot of radiated heat right back into its source. Dare I say you might need something like a climate model to decide this?
In those climate models we have, CO2 is the most important player.
All those models (about 60 of them) have failed to predict non-higher temperatures since 1997, despite more CO2 in the air.
We would need a model without Arrhenius, if you ask me.