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mwengler comments on The Ultimate Sleeping Beauty Problem - Less Wrong Discussion
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Note that if she has no way to test whether her calculation is correct, the notion of probability does not make sense in her situation. In other words, what would she do differently if she estimates the probability to be, say, 1/2 instead of, say, 1/3?
If she was told she would be woken up 3^n times if n is even, 0 times if n is odd, then it seems obvious enough that when asked upon being woken up what she thought the probability that n is even, she would rationally and correctly say 100%. And that this would make sense. So Why wouldn't it make sense if the answer is some number other than 100%?
What she would do differently is bet on things she cared about based on the odds. Like "would you rather your relatives are given $5 if the number of coin flips is odd or $3 if the number of coinflips are even?" The answer for a rational beauty would depend on the probability that the number of coin flips is even.