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Lumifer comments on Open Thread, September 30 - October 6, 2013 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Stay out of the market.
Alternatively, if you have a strong prior, you can treat the bets of other better-informed participants as evidence and do Bayesian updating. But it will have to be a pretty strong prior to still bet against them.
Of course, if the market has both better-informed and worse-informed participants and you know who they are, you can just bet together with the better-informed participants.