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witzvo comments on Open Thread, September 30 - October 6, 2013 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Yes, that formula doesn't make sense (you forgot the 1/2, by the way). I believe 8.52/8.53 should not have a minus there and 8.54 should have a minus that it's missing. Also 8.52 should have expected values or big-O probability notation. This is a frequentist calculation so I'd suggest a more standard reference like Ferguson