This is a game I play often when it comes to estimating time - probably the most frequent estimation that I conduct in day-to-day life. When on a New York City subway, for instance, I'll make a 50% confidence range guess on how long it will take the subway to get to my stop. The game works equally well when waiting for a light to change, a lecture to end, an elevator to arrive, etc.
I started doing this at a fairly young age when - in response to asking "are we there yet," - my parents told me to guess how long it would take to reach a travel destination.
Great examples. Next step is calibrating the confidence range based on multiple experiments.
Developing rational patterns of thought in children is very important and I'm glad Gunnar brought that issue up.
I wanted to share with you some thoughts I have regarding estimation games.
From an early age I've been constantly calculating various kinds of estimates - e.g. "how many people live in this building", "how long will it take to cross the US on foot", "what's the height of that tower", "how many BMWs are manufactured annually" and so on.
I believe that practising this technique is not only fun but also helpful. Sometimes one has no way or time to acquire accurate information regarding something and even a rough estimate can be very valuable.
People are often surprised when they see me do it whereas for me it is completely natural. I think the reason is that I do it from a very early age.
I think it's easy and natural for children to grasp if this method is introduced through everyday experiences. By making this into a game children can gain intuitive understanding of quantitative techniques. I suspect many children can enjoy this kind of games.
I'd like to hear your thoughts on the subject.
Do you remember yourself doing something like this? From what age? Do you practice anything similar with your children?