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RolfAndreassen comments on Should effective altruists care about the US gov't shutdown and can we do anything? - Less Wrong Discussion

-2 Post author: Ishaan 01 October 2013 08:24PM

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Comment author: RolfAndreassen 01 October 2013 09:15:29PM 5 points [-]

I think that [CDC shutdown] is almost certain to directly cause a nontrivial number of deaths.

Did you, perchance, mean expected deaths? It seems to me that CDC is important iff there is an outbreak of a deadly epidemic. Then one can discuss what the delta-deaths is actually likely to be; but at any rate it does not appear obvious that losing CDC for a month is likely to increase the number of deaths in a non-epidemic (ie, business as usual) environment. So there's a small chance P(epidemic breaks out while shutdown) times a not-very-well-known but conceivably quite large delta-deaths (CDC handles epidemic versus improvised handling). The latter should likely be, instead, "CDC has a watch officer at first report versus CDC scrambles to get a response together once the epidemic is obvious through other channels".

As for doing something about it: Perhaps you could crowdfund together enough money that CDC could have a skeleton staff manning the phones? Kickstarter, for example?

NB: I would not contribute to such a thing, I'm modelling someone who thought the expected-deaths calculation above came out with rather a large number.

Comment author: Lumifer 01 October 2013 09:24:07PM 5 points [-]

Perhaps you could crowdfund together enough money that CDC could have a skeleton staff manning the phones?

I am pretty sure CDC has people manning the phones...

Crucial agencies within HHS such as the Centers for Disease Control and the National Institutes of Health will still be operating (Source)

Comment author: Jayson_Virissimo 01 October 2013 11:37:50PM 3 points [-]

I called 800-232-4636 and verified that they are manning the phones. If you want to check for yourself without wasting 5 minutes, skip the phone tree by pressing 1 for English and then 0 for an operator.

Comment author: Ishaan 01 October 2013 09:24:53PM *  3 points [-]

It seems to me that CDC is important iff there is an outbreak of a deadly epidemic.

I was thinking of more mundane things, for example the yearly flu, which kills quite a few people yearly and would kill more but for careful monitoring of strains and preventative vaccination measures.

The CDC alone isn't what I'm concerned about. It's the small-to-medium inconvenience distributed over a very large number of research facilities, and the larger inconveniences to projects which are time sensitive.