RichardKennaway comments on Crush Your Uncertainty - Less Wrong Discussion
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I think of it as making decisions. If there's "30% chance of rain", you can't take 30% of an umbrella. You either take one, or not, and the decision turns out to be right, or not. Uncertainty is continuous, decision is discontinuous.
Decisions are not made only at the end of reasoning out a situation, but all the way through, as you discard possbilities when they appear not to be worth further attention. For that matter, sometimes you have to discard possibilities that are worth further attention, because you can't explore everything in order to decide which things to explore.