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bokov comments on US default as a risk to mitigate - Less Wrong Discussion
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I thought of one.
An insider-driven market anticipates legislation with major economic implications. A non-insider-driven market reacts to legislation with major economic implications. So if we see how the market acted during previous hotly contested congressional decisions, we should be able to infer if and to what extent it is insider-driven, and maybe even get some clues about what sectors most insiders are in, and what branches of government are feeding them information.