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gwern comments on [LINK] Spread the wings of uncertainty, the research drug version - Less Wrong Discussion
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Full text: http://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/182368464/2013-cha.pdf
Discussion: http://pipeline.corante.com/archives/2013/10/08/forecasting_drug_sales_har_har.php
I don't think this is a very interesting datapoint.
Industry experts? These are Wall Street sell-side analysts, apparently, which are not a group I have ever seen praised for accuracy (nor unbiasedness, while we're at it).
Show me internal projections from the pharmaceutical companies; show me internal forecasts from hedge funds for trading on their own account; show me movements of share prices. Those I'll consider meaningful. This, on the other hand, is just another datapoint that advertisers lie.
Also, I didn't know we could even do posts like this, which have a sliding bar at right which you need to use to read the whole thing.