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ChristianKl comments on Open Thread, October 20 - 26, 2013 - Less Wrong Discussion

2 Post author: Adele_L 21 October 2013 03:11AM

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Comment author: ChristianKl 21 October 2013 03:06:17PM 6 points [-]

Plenty of people predict that increased antibiotica use will lead to a raise in antibiotica resistance among bacteria.

Organisms like bacteria that have much more iterations behind them then humans also tend to have less waste in their DNA.

Grasses beat trees at growing in glades with animals that eat plants. Why? Grass has more iterations behind them and is therefore better optimized for the enviroment than the trees.

A tree has to get lucky to survive the beginning. If it surives the beginning it can however grow tall and win.

Let's say you keep the enviroment stable for 2 billion years. Everything evolves naturally. Then you take tree seeds and bring them back to the present time. I think there a good chance that such a tree would outcompete grass at growing in glades.

Most "predictions of evolution" that can be found online are more about finding past evidence of common descent (e.g. fossils) rather than predicting the future path that evolution will take.

Fossils don't really get used as the central evidence of common descent anymore. These days common descent usually get's determined by looking at the DNA. In my experience people who discuss evolution online that do focus on fossils are usually atheists who behave as if their atheism is a religion. They think it's important to defend Darwin against the creationists. On the other hand they aren't up to date with the current science on evolution.

Comment author: Douglas_Knight 21 October 2013 05:37:44PM 3 points [-]

Organisms like bacteria that have much more iterations behind them then humans also tend to have less waste in their DNA.

Grasses beat trees at growing in glades with animals that eat plants. Why? Grass has more iterations behind them and is therefore better optimized for the enviroment than the trees.

You seem to be predicting that grasses have smaller genomes than trees, but wheat is famous for having a huge genome. Here's a table of a few plants. Maybe wheat is an outlier and I'd be interested if you had documentation of some pattern, but I've always heard that there is none.

Comment author: Lumifer 21 October 2013 05:56:15PM 2 points [-]

Plenty of people predict that increased antibiotica use will lead to a raise in antibiotica resistance among bacteria.

What do you mean, "predict"? It has been empirically observed, a lot.

Grass has more iterations behind them and is therefore better optimized for the enviroment than the trees.

Huh? It doesn't work like that at all. For one thing, the "environment" isn't stable.

Comment author: ChristianKl 22 October 2013 03:30:04PM *  2 points [-]

What do you mean, "predict"? It has been empirically observed, a lot.

cousin made the claim that we can only say something about evolution that happened in the past. I say that we can confidently predict that increasing antibiotica resistance among bacteria will continue in the future.

Huh? It doesn't work like that at all. For one thing, the "environment" isn't stable.

Firstly describing complex system in a ew words is seldom completely accurate. The question is whether it's a useful mental model for thinking about it. In this case the idea I wanted to communicate is that it's very useful to think about the speed of iterations and the competitive advantage that a specis gets by having as advantage of hundred of millions of iterations over their competitors.

The enviroment doesn't have to be stable for the argument that I made. In changing enviroments a spezies with faster iterations adapts faster. A lot of genetic adaptions are also about housekeeping genes that are useful in most enviroments.