Brainwashing (which is one thing drethlin asked about the probability of) is not an LW concept, particularly; I'm not sure how reading up on it is remaining inside the "accepted LW wisdom."
If reading up on brainwashing teaches me that certain signs characterize it, and LW demonstrates those signs, I should increase my estimate that LW is brainwashing people, and consequently that I'm being brainwashed. And, yes, if I conclude that it's likely that I'm being brainwashed, there are various deconversion techniques I can use to negate that.
Of course, seriously considering arguments from outside the framework of beliefs is a good idea regardless.
Being completely wrong, admittedly, (the other thing drethlin asked about the probability of) doesn't lend itself to this approach so well... it's hard to know where to even start, there.
Brainwashing (which is one thing drethlin asked about the probability of) is not an LW concept, particularly; I'm not sure how reading up on it is remaining inside the "accepted LW wisdom."
No argument there. What I alluded to is the second part, incremental "Bayesian" updating based on (independent) new evidence. This is more of an LW "inside" thing.
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.