Brainwashing (which is one thing drethlin asked about the probability of) is not an LW concept, particularly; I'm not sure how reading up on it is remaining inside the "accepted LW wisdom."
No argument there. What I alluded to is the second part, incremental "Bayesian" updating based on (independent) new evidence. This is more of an LW "inside" thing.
Ah! Yes, fair.
Sorry, I wasn't trying to be nonresponsive, that reading just didn't occur to me. (Coincidence? Or a troubling sign of epistemic closure?)
I will admit, the idea that I should update beliefs based on new evidence, but that repeatedly presenting me with the same evidence over and over should not significantly update my beliefs, seems to me nothing but common sense.
Of course, that's just what I should expect it to feel like if I were trapped inside a self-reinforcing network of pernicious false beliefs.
So, all right... in the spirit of serious...
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.