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passive_fist comments on MIRI strategy - Less Wrong Discussion

5 Post author: ColonelMustard 28 October 2013 03:33PM

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Comment author: passive_fist 28 October 2013 08:08:17PM 5 points [-]

Overexposure of an idea can be harmful as well. Look at how Kurzweil promoted his idea of the singularity. While many of the ideas (such as intelligence explosion) are solid, people don't take Kurzweil seriously anymore, to a large extent.

It would be useful debating why Kurzweil isn't taken seriously anymore. Is it because of the fraction of wrong predictions? Or is it simply because of the way he's presented them? Answering these questions would be useful to avoid ending up like Kurzweil has.

Comment author: BaconServ 28 October 2013 08:39:21PM *  1 point [-]

While not doubting the accuracy of the assertion, why precisely do you believe Kurzweil isn't taken seriously anymore, and in what specific ways is this a bad thing for him/his goals/the effect it has on society?

Comment author: CellBioGuy 29 October 2013 04:03:52AM 5 points [-]

I wasn't aware Kurzweil was ever taken seriously in the first place.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 29 October 2013 04:03:09PM 8 points [-]

At least he's been cited: Google Scholar reports 1600+ citations for The Singularity is Near as well as for The Age of Spiritual Machines, his earlier book on the same theme.

Also, if we're talking about him in general, and not just his Singularity-related writings, Wikipedia reports that:

Kurzweil received the 1999 National Medal of Technology and Innovation, America's highest honor in technology, from President Clinton in a White House ceremony. He was the recipient of the $500,000 Lemelson-MIT Prize for 2001,[6] the world's largest for innovation. And in 2002 he was inducted into the National Inventors Hall of Fame, established by the U.S. Patent Office. He has received nineteen honorary doctorates, and honors from three U.S. presidents. Kurzweil has been described as a "restless genius"[7] by The Wall Street Journal and "the ultimate thinking machine"[8] by Forbes. PBS included Kurzweil as one of 16 "revolutionaries who made America"[9] along with other inventors of the past two centuries. Inc. magazine ranked him #8 among the "most fascinating" entrepreneurs in the United States and called him "Edison's rightful heir".[10]

Comment author: somervta 29 October 2013 10:11:39PM 1 point [-]

I'd point out that much of the above is not (at least not entirely) related to his futurism - Kurweil has done a lot of other things.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 30 October 2013 03:54:12AM 0 points [-]

That was the point - he already had a lot of credibility from his earlier achievements, which might cause people to also take his futurist claims more seriously than if the same books had been written by random nobodies.

Comment author: somervta 30 October 2013 08:26:12AM 2 points [-]

Wow - reading comprehension fail, retracted.

Comment author: [deleted] 30 October 2013 12:07:40AM 4 points [-]

Director of Engineering at Google. I'm pretty sure that some very smart people are taking him seriously.

Comment author: passive_fist 29 October 2013 01:13:15AM 1 point [-]

It's bad because as I understand it, his goals are to make people adjust their behavior and attitude for the singularity before it happens (something that is well aligned with what MIRI wants to do) and if he isn't taken seriously then people won't do this. Such things include taking seriously transhumanist concepts (life extension, uploading, etc.) and other concepts such as cryonics. I can't speak for Kurzweil but it seems that he thinks that if people took these ideas seriously right now, we would be headed for a much smoother and more pleasant ride into the future (as opposed to suddenly being awoken to a hard FOOM scenario rapidly eating up your house, your lunch, and then you). I agree with this perspective.

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