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Vaniver comments on New vs. Business-as-Usual Future - Less Wrong Discussion
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Why The West Rules is an argument by an archaeologist that the first projection, of huge change that makes the future almost unrecognizable, is 'business-as-usual' on the scale of history, which is very different from 'business-as-usual' on the scale of individuals.
As far as I can tell, the primary thing the second model has going for it is that it's easy for people to comprehend. This isn't compelling support.